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[1] 936658 9
[1] TRUE
[1] 936658 8
iteration: 1
f(x) = -1025311.619836
iteration: 2
f(x) = -891229.473550
iteration: 3
f(x) = -1015902.625821
iteration: 4
f(x) = -1016830.774301
iteration: 5
f(x) = -977492.249294
iteration: 6
f(x) = -948803.020616
iteration: 7
f(x) = -937231.792053
iteration: 8
f(x) = -1027336.865933
iteration: 9
f(x) = -1028432.028178
iteration: 10
f(x) = -1029045.119102
iteration: 11
f(x) = -1028639.608750
iteration: 12
f(x) = -1026206.164661
iteration: 13
f(x) = -1030426.677517
iteration: 14
f(x) = -1030991.875821
iteration: 15
f(x) = -1029566.214890
iteration: 16
f(x) = -1030080.636604
iteration: 17
f(x) = -1031962.347892
iteration: 18
f(x) = -1030344.425899
iteration: 19
f(x) = -1032618.059007
iteration: 20
f(x) = -1032869.736958
iteration: 21
f(x) = -1032290.019265
iteration: 22
f(x) = -1032864.681409
iteration: 23
f(x) = -1032777.354148
iteration: 24
f(x) = -1032913.716758
iteration: 25
f(x) = -1033174.392627
iteration: 26
f(x) = -1033651.874740
iteration: 27
f(x) = -1034424.049072
iteration: 28
f(x) = -1034997.369887
iteration: 29
f(x) = -1034684.669633
iteration: 30
f(x) = -1035225.466244
iteration: 31
f(x) = -1035445.823145
iteration: 32
f(x) = -1035573.919116
iteration: 33
f(x) = -1035633.470341
iteration: 34
f(x) = -1035670.393395
iteration: 35
f(x) = -1035652.025214
iteration: 36
f(x) = -1035655.498369
iteration: 37
f(x) = -1035666.433461
iteration: 38
f(x) = -1035659.498278
iteration: 39
f(x) = -1035666.926956
iteration: 40
f(x) = -1035670.318758
iteration: 41
f(x) = -1035670.064118
iteration: 42
f(x) = -1035670.443501
iteration: 43
f(x) = -1035670.454906
iteration: 44
f(x) = -1035670.475145
iteration: 45
f(x) = -1035670.426724
iteration: 46
f(x) = -1035670.457709
iteration: 47
f(x) = -1035670.476677
iteration: 48
f(x) = -1035670.476450
iteration: 49
f(x) = -1035670.475909
iteration: 50
f(x) = -1035670.476938
iteration: 51
f(x) = -1035670.476913
Linear mixed model fit by REML ['lmerMod']
Formula: log_ps ~ year + field + d_div + o_div + game_length + (1 | offense) +
(1 | defense) + (1 | game_id)
Data: g
REML criterion at convergence: -1035670
Random effects:
Groups Name Std.Dev.
game_id (Intercept) 0.08410
defense (Intercept) 0.08944
offense (Intercept) 0.09397
Residual 0.10727
Number of obs: 936654, groups: game_id, 468327; defense, 17309; offense, 17309
Fixed Effects:
(Intercept) year2003 year2004 year2005
4.221283 -0.007896 -0.013818 -0.018677
year2006 year2007 year2008 year2009
-0.019021 -0.022943 -0.024211 -0.030906
year2010 year2011 year2012 year2013
-0.029000 -0.029949 -0.041256 -0.048201
year2014 year2015 year2016 year2017
0.002653 -0.035200 0.027235 0.031302
year2018 fielddefense_home fieldoffense_home d_div2
0.033645 -0.015325 0.030029 0.149790
d_div3 o_div2 o_div3 game_length1 OT
0.241199 -0.094582 -0.202960 0.106838
game_length2 OT game_length3 OT game_length4 OT game_length5 OT
0.209100 0.307123 0.364976 0.475812
game_length6 OT game_length7 OT
0.508307 0.500653
convergence code 0; 1 optimizer warnings; 0 lme4 warnings
Linear mixed model fit by REML ['lmerMod']
Formula: log_ps ~ year + field + d_div + o_div + game_length + (1 | offense) +
(1 | defense) + (1 | game_id)
Data: g
Control: lmerControl(optimizer = "nloptwrap")
REML criterion at convergence: -1035670
Scaled residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-6.3011 -0.5194 0.0391 0.5650 4.5753
Random effects:
Groups Name Variance Std.Dev.
game_id (Intercept) 0.007073 0.08410
defense (Intercept) 0.007999 0.08944
offense (Intercept) 0.008830 0.09397
Residual 0.011507 0.10727
Number of obs: 936654, groups: game_id, 468327; defense, 17309; offense, 17309
Fixed effects:
Estimate Std. Error t value
(Intercept) 4.2212825 0.0045100 936.0
year2003 -0.0078963 0.0060098 -1.3
year2004 -0.0138177 0.0060036 -2.3
year2005 -0.0186767 0.0060053 -3.1
year2006 -0.0190213 0.0059848 -3.2
year2007 -0.0229426 0.0059677 -3.8
year2008 -0.0242110 0.0059632 -4.1
year2009 -0.0309063 0.0059403 -5.2
year2010 -0.0289999 0.0059307 -4.9
year2011 -0.0299487 0.0059110 -5.1
year2012 -0.0412558 0.0059029 -7.0
year2013 -0.0482012 0.0058925 -8.2
year2014 0.0026532 0.0058813 0.5
year2015 -0.0351998 0.0058706 -6.0
year2016 0.0272350 0.0058560 4.7
year2017 0.0313023 0.0058473 5.4
year2018 0.0336449 0.0058517 5.7
fielddefense_home -0.0153245 0.0006061 -25.3
fieldoffense_home 0.0300294 0.0006061 49.5
d_div2 0.1497904 0.0021576 69.4
d_div3 0.2411995 0.0021361 112.9
o_div2 -0.0945815 0.0022286 -42.4
o_div3 -0.2029600 0.0021982 -92.3
game_length1 OT 0.1068376 0.0007963 134.2
game_length2 OT 0.2091000 0.0018998 110.1
game_length3 OT 0.3071230 0.0045501 67.5
game_length4 OT 0.3649758 0.0101575 35.9
game_length5 OT 0.4758124 0.0293169 16.2
game_length6 OT 0.5083073 0.0822187 6.2
game_length7 OT 0.5006528 0.0831744 6.0
convergence code: 0
Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 0.0163371 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
Analysis of Variance Table
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value
year 16 7.06 0.441 38.347
field 2 459.54 229.768 19967.727
d_div 2 83.51 41.756 3628.715
o_div 2 98.52 49.261 4280.925
game_length 7 407.11 58.159 5054.258
[1] TRUE
[1] 5.380096e-10
[1] 8.319674e-14
[1] 6.200354e-09
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
2.045920e-19 3.190212e-17 1.933196e-16 5.047746e-16 1.281659e-15 2.850317e-15
30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%
6.029722e-15 1.236242e-14 2.507705e-14 4.498210e-14 8.319674e-14 1.627000e-13
60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85%
3.217330e-13 6.091391e-13 1.173629e-12 2.742280e-12 5.668585e-12 1.393283e-11
90% 95% 100%
4.304431e-11 2.453312e-10 1.671255e-07