Skip to content
New issue

Have a question about this project? Sign up for a free GitHub account to open an issue and contact its maintainers and the community.

By clicking “Sign up for GitHub”, you agree to our terms of service and privacy statement. We’ll occasionally send you account related emails.

Already on GitHub? Sign in to your account

probability is calculated incorrectly for OR and 1 of (XOR) #1501

Closed
reteprelief opened this issue Sep 7, 2018 · 1 comment
Closed

probability is calculated incorrectly for OR and 1 of (XOR) #1501

reteprelief opened this issue Sep 7, 2018 · 1 comment
Assignees
Milestone

Comments

@reteprelief
Copy link
Contributor

reteprelief commented Sep 7, 2018

It should be
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
calculated as 1 - P(!A and !B) = 1 - (1 - P(A))*(1-P(B))

It currently calculates it as P(A) + P(B)
the NRC handbook calls this "rare event approximation" (see page VI-5) for P(A or B), which argues the probability is accurate to within about ten percent of the true probability when P(Ei) < 0.1.

@reteprelief reteprelief changed the title probability is calculated incorrectly for OR probability is calculated incorrectly for OR and 1 of (XOR) Sep 7, 2018
@reteprelief
Copy link
Contributor Author

For XOR (1of) we calculated 1 - (1 - P(A))*(1-P(B))
Instead it should be
Sum(P(Xi)*P(!Xk in 1..n)) over set of events Xi and k <> i

@ghost ghost assigned reteprelief Sep 7, 2018
@ghost ghost added the in progress label Sep 7, 2018
@ghost ghost added review and removed in progress labels Sep 7, 2018
@reteprelief reteprelief added this to the 2.3.6 milestone Sep 7, 2018
@ghost ghost removed the review label Sep 7, 2018
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment
Projects
None yet
Development

No branches or pull requests

1 participant