Augustine's 16th Law
Augustine's Laws are a collection of tips from a decades of government contracting. One of them observed that the price of fighter aircraft was growing faster than the US defense budget:
Law Number XVI: In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3-1/2 days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.
This R script attempts to verify this law.
Some concerns about the data sets:
- Are they all nominal prices or is there a mix of real (inflation adjusted) and nominal?
- How accurate are the prices? Wikipedia F-35 disagrees, for instance.
- What happens when
FDEX>GDP? - Does it make sense to do linear extrapolation on log of nominal prices?
- Is it true that everything looks linear on a log/log scale?
