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\title{\textbf{Scaling of biodiversity loss in global coral reef fish}}
\author{Petr Keil*, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Or Givan, Sebastien Villeger,
Valeriano Parravicini, Michel Kulbicki, \\ Jonathan Belmaker \& the GASPAR team}
\institute{*Center for Theoretical Study, Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic \\
Website: \texttt{\href{}{}},
E-mail: \texttt{\href{}{}}}
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\item To predict loss of coral reef fish diversity
based on \textbf{simulated scenarios of loss of coral
reef area}.
\item To improve methodology of extinction estimation by moving beyond
simplistic \textbf{species-area (SAR)} and
\textbf{endemics-area (EAR)} relationships that
ignore spatial configuration of habitat loss.
\item To base the predictions on coral reef
\textbf{conservation status, area, remoteness,
human pressure and climate}, and also species-specific
\small{"Ancient coral reefs" by Heinrich Harder (1858-1935) - Wikimedia Commons}
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\item Species distributional data from the
\textbf{GASPAR database} (Kulbicki \textit{et al.} 2013,
Pravicini \textit{et al.} 2013), with 5331 species in
249 grid 5-degree cells that cover 99.76\% of
global coral reef area.
\item Data on species-specific \textbf{vulnerability
to fishing and coral bleaching}
(Cheung \textit{et al.} 2005, Graham \textit{et al.} 2011).
\item Data on five cell-specific
characteristics (Paravicini \textit{et al.} 2014):
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We run two distinct algorithms to simulate species loss:
\item \textbf{Site removal algorithm}. Large segments
of coral reefs are completely destroyed stepwise; in each step
all species living in the reef are wiped out.
\item \textbf{Removing presences in site-species
occurrence (SSO) matrix}. We subsequently remove the
site-specific species occurrences (SSO), which are the
presences in the binary site by species
matrix (panel b). The exact sequence of SSO loss
depends on the properties both sites and species.
Species loss is summarized by an \textbf{extinction curve}
describing relationship between area (or SSO) and number of lost
species. Area under the curve (\textbf{AUC}) is our measure
extinction magnitude.
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\block{Results 1: Site removal algorithm}
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\block{Results 2: Removing presences in site-species occurrence (SSO) matrix}
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\item Global and regional fish diversity is \textbf{surprisingly difficult to reduce}
by removal of compact blocks of coral reefs.
\item Area loss starting at the most \textbf{isolated} sites leads to most severe species loss.
\item Area loss that initially avoids \textbf{protected areas} leads to the lowest species loss. This indicates that a non-random
and unique part of reef fish diversity is covered by protected areas.
\item Simulated species loss due to \textbf{fishing and coral bleaching} is
higher than random loss.
\item Including real-world variables into scenarios of habitat
loss give different predictions than simple \textbf{SAR} models.
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\hangindent=2cm Cheung \textit{et al.} (2005) A fuzzy logic expert system to
estimate intrinsic extinction vulnerabilities of marine fishes
to fishing. \textit{Biological Conservation}, \textbf{124}: 97-111.
\hangindent=2cm Graham \textit{et al.} (2011) Extinction vulnerability of coral
reef fishes. \textit{Ecology Letters}, \textbf{14}: 341-348.
\hangindent=2cm Kulbicki \textit{et al.} (2013) Global biogeography of reef
fishes: a hierarchical quantitative delineation of regions.
\textit{PLoS ONE}, \textbf{8}: e81847.
\hangindent=2cm Paravicini \textit{et al.} (2013) Global patterns and predictors of
tropical reef fish species richness. \textit{Ecography}, \textbf{36}: 1-9.
\hangindent=2cm Paravicini \textit{et al.} (2014) Global mismatch between
species richness and vulnerability of reef fish assemblages.
\textit{Ecology Letters}, \textbf{17}: 1101-1110.
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\note[targetoffsetx=-8cm, targetoffsety=-9cm, width=25cm, innersep=1cm]
\textbf{Funding:} This research has received funding
from the People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the EU 7th Framework
Programme (FP7/2007-2013), REA grant agreement no. 302868.
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