diff --git a/apps/web/src/orchestrationRecovery.test.ts b/apps/web/src/orchestrationRecovery.test.ts
index fbdbea4ee3..b04622cdbd 100644
--- a/apps/web/src/orchestrationRecovery.test.ts
+++ b/apps/web/src/orchestrationRecovery.test.ts
@@ -1,6 +1,9 @@
 import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
 
-import { createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator } from "./orchestrationRecovery";
+import {
+  createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator,
+  deriveReplayRetryDecision,
+} from "./orchestrationRecovery";
 
 describe("createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator", () => {
   it("defers live events until bootstrap completes and then requests replay", () => {
@@ -59,10 +62,13 @@ describe("createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator", () => {
     coordinator.classifyDomainEvent(7);
     coordinator.markEventBatchApplied([{ sequence: 4 }, { sequence: 5 }, { sequence: 6 }]);
 
-    expect(coordinator.completeReplayRecovery()).toBe(true);
+    expect(coordinator.completeReplayRecovery()).toEqual({
+      replayMadeProgress: true,
+      shouldReplay: true,
+    });
   });
 
-  it("does not immediately replay again when replay returns no new events", () => {
+  it("retries replay when no progress was made but higher live sequences were observed", () => {
     const coordinator = createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator();
 
     coordinator.beginSnapshotRecovery("bootstrap");
@@ -70,7 +76,10 @@ describe("createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator", () => {
     coordinator.classifyDomainEvent(5);
     coordinator.beginReplayRecovery("sequence-gap");
 
-    expect(coordinator.completeReplayRecovery()).toBe(false);
+    expect(coordinator.completeReplayRecovery()).toEqual({
+      replayMadeProgress: false,
+      shouldReplay: true,
+    });
     expect(coordinator.getState()).toMatchObject({
       latestSequence: 3,
       highestObservedSequence: 5,
@@ -79,6 +88,19 @@ describe("createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator", () => {
     });
   });
 
+  it("does not request another replay when a replay made no progress and nothing newer was observed", () => {
+    const coordinator = createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator();
+
+    coordinator.beginSnapshotRecovery("bootstrap");
+    coordinator.completeSnapshotRecovery(3);
+    coordinator.beginReplayRecovery("sequence-gap");
+
+    expect(coordinator.completeReplayRecovery()).toEqual({
+      replayMadeProgress: false,
+      shouldReplay: false,
+    });
+  });
+
   it("marks replay failure as unbootstrapped so snapshot fallback is recovery-only", () => {
     const coordinator = createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator();
 
@@ -131,3 +153,154 @@ describe("createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator", () => {
     });
   });
 });
+
+describe("deriveReplayRetryDecision", () => {
+  it("retries immediately when replay made progress", () => {
+    expect(
+      deriveReplayRetryDecision({
+        previousTracker: {
+          attempts: 2,
+          latestSequence: 3,
+          highestObservedSequence: 5,
+        },
+        completion: {
+          replayMadeProgress: true,
+          shouldReplay: true,
+        },
+        recoveryState: {
+          latestSequence: 5,
+          highestObservedSequence: 5,
+        },
+        baseDelayMs: 100,
+        maxNoProgressRetries: 3,
+      }),
+    ).toEqual({
+      shouldRetry: true,
+      delayMs: 0,
+      tracker: null,
+    });
+  });
+
+  it("caps no-progress retries for the same frontier", () => {
+    const first = deriveReplayRetryDecision({
+      previousTracker: null,
+      completion: {
+        replayMadeProgress: false,
+        shouldReplay: true,
+      },
+      recoveryState: {
+        latestSequence: 3,
+        highestObservedSequence: 5,
+      },
+      baseDelayMs: 100,
+      maxNoProgressRetries: 3,
+    });
+
+    const second = deriveReplayRetryDecision({
+      previousTracker: first.tracker,
+      completion: {
+        replayMadeProgress: false,
+        shouldReplay: true,
+      },
+      recoveryState: {
+        latestSequence: 3,
+        highestObservedSequence: 5,
+      },
+      baseDelayMs: 100,
+      maxNoProgressRetries: 3,
+    });
+
+    const third = deriveReplayRetryDecision({
+      previousTracker: second.tracker,
+      completion: {
+        replayMadeProgress: false,
+        shouldReplay: true,
+      },
+      recoveryState: {
+        latestSequence: 3,
+        highestObservedSequence: 5,
+      },
+      baseDelayMs: 100,
+      maxNoProgressRetries: 3,
+    });
+
+    const fourth = deriveReplayRetryDecision({
+      previousTracker: third.tracker,
+      completion: {
+        replayMadeProgress: false,
+        shouldReplay: true,
+      },
+      recoveryState: {
+        latestSequence: 3,
+        highestObservedSequence: 5,
+      },
+      baseDelayMs: 100,
+      maxNoProgressRetries: 3,
+    });
+
+    expect(first).toEqual({
+      shouldRetry: true,
+      delayMs: 100,
+      tracker: {
+        attempts: 1,
+        latestSequence: 3,
+        highestObservedSequence: 5,
+      },
+    });
+    expect(second).toEqual({
+      shouldRetry: true,
+      delayMs: 200,
+      tracker: {
+        attempts: 2,
+        latestSequence: 3,
+        highestObservedSequence: 5,
+      },
+    });
+    expect(third).toEqual({
+      shouldRetry: true,
+      delayMs: 400,
+      tracker: {
+        attempts: 3,
+        latestSequence: 3,
+        highestObservedSequence: 5,
+      },
+    });
+    expect(fourth).toEqual({
+      shouldRetry: false,
+      delayMs: 0,
+      tracker: null,
+    });
+  });
+
+  it("resets the retry budget when the replay frontier changes", () => {
+    const exhausted = {
+      attempts: 3,
+      latestSequence: 3,
+      highestObservedSequence: 5,
+    };
+
+    expect(
+      deriveReplayRetryDecision({
+        previousTracker: exhausted,
+        completion: {
+          replayMadeProgress: false,
+          shouldReplay: true,
+        },
+        recoveryState: {
+          latestSequence: 3,
+          highestObservedSequence: 6,
+        },
+        baseDelayMs: 100,
+        maxNoProgressRetries: 3,
+      }),
+    ).toEqual({
+      shouldRetry: true,
+      delayMs: 100,
+      tracker: {
+        attempts: 1,
+        latestSequence: 3,
+        highestObservedSequence: 6,
+      },
+    });
+  });
+});
diff --git a/apps/web/src/orchestrationRecovery.ts b/apps/web/src/orchestrationRecovery.ts
index 5af48f85b9..270461bd29 100644
--- a/apps/web/src/orchestrationRecovery.ts
+++ b/apps/web/src/orchestrationRecovery.ts
@@ -13,8 +13,74 @@ export interface OrchestrationRecoveryState {
   inFlight: OrchestrationRecoveryPhase | null;
 }
 
+export interface ReplayRecoveryCompletion {
+  replayMadeProgress: boolean;
+  shouldReplay: boolean;
+}
+
+export interface ReplayRetryTracker {
+  attempts: number;
+  latestSequence: number;
+  highestObservedSequence: number;
+}
+
+export interface ReplayRetryDecision {
+  shouldRetry: boolean;
+  delayMs: number;
+  tracker: ReplayRetryTracker | null;
+}
+
 type SequencedEvent = Readonly<{ sequence: number }>;
 
+export function deriveReplayRetryDecision(input: {
+  previousTracker: ReplayRetryTracker | null;
+  completion: ReplayRecoveryCompletion;
+  recoveryState: Pick<OrchestrationRecoveryState, "latestSequence" | "highestObservedSequence">;
+  baseDelayMs: number;
+  maxNoProgressRetries: number;
+}): ReplayRetryDecision {
+  if (!input.completion.shouldReplay) {
+    return {
+      shouldRetry: false,
+      delayMs: 0,
+      tracker: null,
+    };
+  }
+
+  if (input.completion.replayMadeProgress) {
+    return {
+      shouldRetry: true,
+      delayMs: 0,
+      tracker: null,
+    };
+  }
+
+  const previousTracker = input.previousTracker;
+  const sameFrontier =
+    previousTracker !== null &&
+    previousTracker.latestSequence === input.recoveryState.latestSequence &&
+    previousTracker.highestObservedSequence === input.recoveryState.highestObservedSequence;
+
+  const attempts = sameFrontier && previousTracker !== null ? previousTracker.attempts + 1 : 1;
+  if (attempts > input.maxNoProgressRetries) {
+    return {
+      shouldRetry: false,
+      delayMs: 0,
+      tracker: null,
+    };
+  }
+
+  return {
+    shouldRetry: true,
+    delayMs: input.baseDelayMs * 2 ** (attempts - 1),
+    tracker: {
+      attempts,
+      latestSequence: input.recoveryState.latestSequence,
+      highestObservedSequence: input.recoveryState.highestObservedSequence,
+    },
+  };
+}
+
 export function createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator() {
   let state: OrchestrationRecoveryState = {
     latestSequence: 0,
@@ -120,16 +186,16 @@ export function createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator() {
       return true;
     },
 
-    completeReplayRecovery(): boolean {
+    completeReplayRecovery(): ReplayRecoveryCompletion {
       const replayMadeProgress =
         replayStartSequence !== null && state.latestSequence > replayStartSequence;
       replayStartSequence = null;
       state.inFlight = null;
-      if (!replayMadeProgress) {
-        state.pendingReplay = false;
-        return false;
-      }
-      return resolveReplayNeedAfterRecovery().shouldReplay;
+      const replayResolution = resolveReplayNeedAfterRecovery();
+      return {
+        replayMadeProgress,
+        shouldReplay: replayResolution.shouldReplay,
+      };
     },
 
     failReplayRecovery(): void {
diff --git a/apps/web/src/routes/__root.tsx b/apps/web/src/routes/__root.tsx
index 3377e4bb44..c96044fa10 100644
--- a/apps/web/src/routes/__root.tsx
+++ b/apps/web/src/routes/__root.tsx
@@ -43,6 +43,7 @@ import { projectQueryKeys } from "../lib/projectReactQuery";
 import { collectActiveTerminalThreadIds } from "../lib/terminalStateCleanup";
 import { deriveOrchestrationBatchEffects } from "../orchestrationEventEffects";
 import { createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator } from "../orchestrationRecovery";
+import { deriveReplayRetryDecision } from "../orchestrationRecovery";
 import { getWsRpcClient } from "~/wsRpcClient";
 
 export const Route = createRootRouteWithContext<{
@@ -189,6 +190,9 @@ function coalesceOrchestrationUiEvents(
   return coalesced;
 }
 
+const REPLAY_RECOVERY_RETRY_DELAY_MS = 100;
+const MAX_NO_PROGRESS_REPLAY_RETRIES = 3;
+
 function ServerStateBootstrap() {
   useEffect(() => startServerStateSync(getWsRpcClient().server), []);
 
@@ -309,6 +313,7 @@ function EventRouter() {
     let disposed = false;
     disposedRef.current = false;
     const recovery = createOrchestrationRecoveryCoordinator();
+    let replayRetryTracker: import("../orchestrationRecovery").ReplayRetryTracker | null = null;
     let needsProviderInvalidation = false;
     const pendingDomainEvents: OrchestrationEvent[] = [];
     let flushPendingDomainEventsScheduled = false;
@@ -435,13 +440,42 @@ function EventRouter() {
           applyEventBatch(events);
         }
       } catch {
+        replayRetryTracker = null;
         recovery.failReplayRecovery();
         void fallbackToSnapshotRecovery();
         return;
       }
 
-      if (!disposed && recovery.completeReplayRecovery()) {
-        void recoverFromSequenceGap();
+      if (!disposed) {
+        const replayCompletion = recovery.completeReplayRecovery();
+        const retryDecision = deriveReplayRetryDecision({
+          previousTracker: replayRetryTracker,
+          completion: replayCompletion,
+          recoveryState: recovery.getState(),
+          baseDelayMs: REPLAY_RECOVERY_RETRY_DELAY_MS,
+          maxNoProgressRetries: MAX_NO_PROGRESS_REPLAY_RETRIES,
+        });
+        replayRetryTracker = retryDecision.tracker;
+
+        if (retryDecision.shouldRetry) {
+          if (retryDecision.delayMs > 0) {
+            await new Promise<void>((resolve) => {
+              setTimeout(resolve, retryDecision.delayMs);
+            });
+            if (disposed) {
+              return;
+            }
+          }
+          void recoverFromSequenceGap();
+        } else if (replayCompletion.shouldReplay && import.meta.env.MODE !== "test") {
+          console.warn(
+            "[orchestration-recovery]",
+            "Stopping replay recovery after no-progress retries.",
+            {
+              state: recovery.getState(),
+            },
+          );
+        }
       }
     };