diff --git a/doc/development/open-questions/index.mdwn b/doc/development/open-questions/index.mdwn
index c506ffd10..a8734f10a 100644
--- a/doc/development/open-questions/index.mdwn
+++ b/doc/development/open-questions/index.mdwn
@@ -149,3 +149,11 @@ Discussion of metacognitive strategies that could have computer aides.
     * e.g., GDP is not always computed directly from national income data, but in
       some cases may be partially imputed.
     * e.g., explain how life expectancy is computed.
+- Updating information
+    * Some people promote an idea called "first principles" thinking (which is
+      somewhat related to the idea of <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_principle> but not
+      exactly), but this is better thought of as "first guess". Many things are
+      more complex than using basic principles and these guesses can be wrong due to
+      lack of information. To make use of this in metacognition, you need to
+      look for more information after the guess, not incorporate the guess as
+      the final answer.