From f92afad9858e7d80bde50755e292496c959aa89c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 8 Apr 2025 14:41:31 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 01/24] docs(readme): add article figures + write "How to run"
 section of README

---
 README.md                                     |  65 ++++++++++++++++--
 .../{ => article}/article_monks_etal_2016.pdf | Bin
 docs/article/fig1.png                         | Bin 0 -> 24971 bytes
 docs/article/fig2.png                         | Bin 0 -> 59888 bytes
 docs/article/fig3.png                         | Bin 0 -> 23426 bytes
 .../supplementary_monks_etal_2016.docx        | Bin
 .../supplementary_monks_etal_2016.pdf         | Bin
 7 files changed, 60 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-)
 rename docs/{ => article}/article_monks_etal_2016.pdf (100%)
 create mode 100644 docs/article/fig1.png
 create mode 100644 docs/article/fig2.png
 create mode 100644 docs/article/fig3.png
 rename docs/{ => article}/supplementary_monks_etal_2016.docx (100%)
 rename docs/{ => article}/supplementary_monks_etal_2016.pdf (100%)

diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index dbeae92..8148a0a 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -28,14 +28,69 @@ TBC
 
 ## How to run
 
-TBC
+The simulation code is provided as a **package** within `simulation/`. There are notebooks executing the model and analysing the results in `notebooks/`.
+
+To run the model with base parameters once or with replications:
+
+```
+from simulation.parameters import Param
+from simulation.runner import Runner
+
+param = Param()
+runner = Runner(param=param)
+
+single_result = runner.run_single(run=0)
+rep_results = runner.run_reps()
+```
+
+Example altering the model parameters:
+
+```
+from simulation.parameters import Param, ASUArrivals, RehabRouting
+from simulation.runner import Runner
 
-<!-- Provide step-by-step instructions and examples.
+# Modified on of the arrival rates, some routing probabilities, and the
+# number of replications
+param = Param(
+    asu_arrivals=ASUArrivals(tia=10),
+    rehab_routing=RehabRouting(neuro_esd=0.2, neuro_other=0.8),
+    number_of_runs=10
+)
+runner = Runner(param=param)
+rep_results = runner.run_reps()
+```
 
-Clearly indicate which files will create each figure in the paper. Hypothetical example:
+### Generating the figures from the article
 
-* To generate **Figures 1 and 2**, execute `notebooks/base_case.ipynb`
-* To generate **Table 1** and **Figures 3 to 5**, execute `notebooks/scenario_analysis.ipynb` -->
+The original study used Simul8. Each of the outputs from that article have been reproduced in this repository using Python, with some examples below. To generate these, simply execute `notebooks/analysis.ipynb`.
+
+Examples:
+
+**Figure 1**
+
+<div style="display: flex; justify-content: center; align-items: center; gap: 10px;">
+  <div style="text-align: center; width: 48%;">
+    Original:<br>
+    <img src="docs/article/fig1.png" width="100%">
+  </div>
+  <div style="text-align: center; width: 48%;">
+    From this repository:<br>
+    <img src="outputs/occupancy_freq_asu.png" width="100%">
+  </div>
+</div>
+
+**Figure 3**
+
+<div style="display: flex; justify-content: center; align-items: center; gap: 10px;">
+  <div style="text-align: center; width: 45%;">
+    Original:<br>
+    <img src="docs/article/fig3.png" width="100%">
+  </div>
+  <div style="text-align: center; width: 52%;">
+    From this repository:<br>
+    <img src="outputs/delay_prob_asu.png" width="100%">
+  </div>
+</div>
 
 <br>
 
diff --git a/docs/article_monks_etal_2016.pdf b/docs/article/article_monks_etal_2016.pdf
similarity index 100%
rename from docs/article_monks_etal_2016.pdf
rename to docs/article/article_monks_etal_2016.pdf
diff --git a/docs/article/fig1.png b/docs/article/fig1.png
new file mode 100644
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diff --git a/docs/supplementary_monks_etal_2016.docx b/docs/article/supplementary_monks_etal_2016.docx
similarity index 100%
rename from docs/supplementary_monks_etal_2016.docx
rename to docs/article/supplementary_monks_etal_2016.docx
diff --git a/docs/supplementary_monks_etal_2016.pdf b/docs/article/supplementary_monks_etal_2016.pdf
similarity index 100%
rename from docs/supplementary_monks_etal_2016.pdf
rename to docs/article/supplementary_monks_etal_2016.pdf

From 06f3b2ab046a575808355eeced0b423544daf1ce Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Amy Heather <92166537+amyheather@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Tue, 8 Apr 2025 14:45:16 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 02/24] docs(readme): alter images (as side-by-side display
 didn't work on GitHub)

---
 README.md | 36 +++++++++++++++---------------------
 1 file changed, 15 insertions(+), 21 deletions(-)

diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index 8148a0a..c24fd4a 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -64,33 +64,27 @@ rep_results = runner.run_reps()
 
 The original study used Simul8. Each of the outputs from that article have been reproduced in this repository using Python, with some examples below. To generate these, simply execute `notebooks/analysis.ipynb`.
 
-Examples:
+#### Examples
 
 **Figure 1**
 
-<div style="display: flex; justify-content: center; align-items: center; gap: 10px;">
-  <div style="text-align: center; width: 48%;">
-    Original:<br>
-    <img src="docs/article/fig1.png" width="100%">
-  </div>
-  <div style="text-align: center; width: 48%;">
-    From this repository:<br>
-    <img src="outputs/occupancy_freq_asu.png" width="100%">
-  </div>
-</div>
+Original:
+
+![](docs/article/fig1.png)
+
+From this repository:
+
+![](outputs/occupancy_freq_asu.png)
 
 **Figure 3**
 
-<div style="display: flex; justify-content: center; align-items: center; gap: 10px;">
-  <div style="text-align: center; width: 45%;">
-    Original:<br>
-    <img src="docs/article/fig3.png" width="100%">
-  </div>
-  <div style="text-align: center; width: 52%;">
-    From this repository:<br>
-    <img src="outputs/delay_prob_asu.png" width="100%">
-  </div>
-</div>
+Original:
+
+![](docs/article/fig3.png)
+
+From this repository:
+
+![](outputs/delay_prob_asu.png)
 
 <br>
 

From c659c2d70350c026df2f49e23ff01dd957678603 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 8 Apr 2025 15:22:51 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 03/24] feat(runner): add summary tables combining
 replications, and use these for Figure 1 and 3

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb         | 262 +++++++++----------------------
 outputs/delay_prob_asu.png       | Bin 25212 -> 25242 bytes
 outputs/delay_prob_rehab.png     | Bin 24050 -> 25719 bytes
 outputs/occupancy_freq_asu.png   | Bin 30739 -> 30327 bytes
 outputs/occupancy_freq_rehab.png | Bin 27597 -> 30157 bytes
 simulation/runner.py             |  43 ++++-
 6 files changed, 115 insertions(+), 190 deletions(-)

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index d1f7ced..d0e364e 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -4,7 +4,19 @@
    "cell_type": "markdown",
    "metadata": {},
    "source": [
-    "# Analysis"
+    "# Analysis\n",
+    "\n",
+    "This analysis reproduces the analysis performed in:\n",
+    "\n",
+    "> Monks T, Worthington D, Allen M, Pitt M, Stein K, James MA. A modelling tool for capacity planning in acute and community stroke services. BMC Health Serv Res. 2016 Sep 29;16(1):530. doi: [10.1186/s12913-016-1789-4](https://doi.org/10.1186/s12913-016-1789-4). PMID: 27688152; PMCID: PMC5043535.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "It is organised into:\n",
+    "\n",
+    "* Base case\n",
+    "    * Run the model\n",
+    "    * Figure 1\n",
+    "    * Figure 3\n",
+    "* Scenario analysis"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -22,6 +34,7 @@
     "import os\n",
     "\n",
     "from IPython.display import display\n",
+    "import pandas as pd\n",
     "import plotly.express as px\n",
     "\n",
     "from simulation.parameters import Param\n",
@@ -43,165 +56,36 @@
    "cell_type": "markdown",
    "metadata": {},
    "source": [
-    "## Running the model"
+    "## Base case\n",
+    "\n",
+    "### Run the model"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": 3,
    "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/plain": [
-       "[{'time': 1095, 'asu_occupancy': 7, 'rehab_occupancy': 12},\n",
-       " {'time': 1096, 'asu_occupancy': 5, 'rehab_occupancy': 11},\n",
-       " {'time': 1097, 'asu_occupancy': 5, 'rehab_occupancy': 10},\n",
-       " {'time': 1098, 'asu_occupancy': 4, 'rehab_occupancy': 10},\n",
-       " {'time': 1099, 'asu_occupancy': 5, 'rehab_occupancy': 10}]"
-      ]
-     },
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "display_data"
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "# View the raw model run and output\n",
-    "model = Model(Param(), run_number=0)\n",
-    "model.run()\n",
-    "display(model.audit_list[0:5])"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 4,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "# Set up runner\n",
-    "runner = Runner(param=Param(cores=8))"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 5,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/html": [
-       "<div>\n",
-       "<style scoped>\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
-       "        text-align: right;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "</style>\n",
-       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
-       "  <thead>\n",
-       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
-       "      <th></th>\n",
-       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
-       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
-       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </thead>\n",
-       "  <tbody>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>0</th>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000548</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000548</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>1</th>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.006575</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.007123</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.923077</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>2</th>\n",
-       "      <td>3</td>\n",
-       "      <td>39</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.021370</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.028493</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.750000</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>3</th>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>76</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.041644</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.070137</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.593750</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>4</th>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>134</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.073425</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.143562</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.511450</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </tbody>\n",
-       "</table>\n",
-       "</div>"
-      ],
-      "text/plain": [
-       "   beds  freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "0     1     1  0.000548  0.000548    1.000000\n",
-       "1     2    12  0.006575  0.007123    0.923077\n",
-       "2     3    39  0.021370  0.028493    0.750000\n",
-       "3     4    76  0.041644  0.070137    0.593750\n",
-       "4     5   134  0.073425  0.143562    0.511450"
-      ]
-     },
-     "execution_count": 5,
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "# Run once and preview results\n",
-    "single_results = runner.run_single(run=0)\n",
-    "single_results[\"asu\"].head()"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 6,
-   "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "# Run replications\n",
-    "rep_results = runner.run_reps()"
+    "# Set up runner to run in parallel with nine cores\n",
+    "runner = Runner(param=Param(cores=9))\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Run the model for 150 replications\n",
+    "rep_results, overall_results = runner.run_reps()"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "markdown",
    "metadata": {},
    "source": [
-    "## Figure 1\n",
+    "### Figure 1\n",
     "\n",
     "**Figure 1.** Simulation probability density function for occupancy of an acute stroke unit."
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 7,
+   "execution_count": 4,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -262,7 +146,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 8,
+   "execution_count": 5,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -287,12 +171,12 @@
          "textposition": "auto",
          "type": "bar",
          "x": {
-          "bdata": "AQIDBAUGBwgJCgsMDQ4PEBESExQVFhcYGRob",
+          "bdata": "AAECAwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhMUFRYXGBkaGw==",
           "dtype": "i1"
          },
          "xaxis": "x",
          "y": {
-          "bdata": "roVnXn/0QT+GSJsNv+56P+0qDjv74ZU/v+4aQFdSpT/zX9RW9cuyP4vikfCtKL4/CMiu4rCzvz/nkBdYDKjCP/ASWeX9LsE/PNQ3Mlrdtj9TcrEvLCW3P5axTu+WTK4/5vVHHwH4qD8J/k1UxxOTP1MNgWg31YA/v+4aQFdShT+GSJsNv+5qPxpnATafcWY/roVnXn/0UT+uhWdef/RBP66FZ15/9EE/roVnXn/0QT8AAAAAAAAAAK6FZ15/9EE/AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAK6FZ15/9EE/",
+          "bdata": "bHe/VzQKMD//vkgzrA5hP08nssFfBoA/f6Ef0PnDlj913+cr55CnP+223BUFI7Q/RvufnWFgvD+cdR1r2zTBPwmmrrcdzcE/j7VtmmiYwD8cnN/xgoy7P5KDn4ss5bQ/qwY2fjXVrD/2CZbpb8yiPyg+kDoQUZY/uL4HeaudiT8tQxzr4jZ6PxWqVUJfJGs/fnz9vw9RWT/anDhJORFFP41+E9tZ/zA/VYDoO6M8IT9fuYhWz+UIPybkgGqwpO4+JuSAarCk3j4m5IBqsKTOPgAAAAAAAAAAJuSAarCkzj4=",
           "dtype": "f8"
          },
          "yaxis": "y"
@@ -1138,12 +1022,12 @@
          "textposition": "auto",
          "type": "bar",
          "x": {
-          "bdata": "AwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhM=",
+          "bdata": "AAECAwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhMUFRYXGBkaGw==",
           "dtype": "i1"
          },
          "xaxis": "x",
          "y": {
-          "bdata": "ZHY0Sg8zdD/gwIEDBw6MP5KyJ0WzwqQ/huNqRsqetD/QV84hL7C4P/vhFeTmUsE/1oyUPSmaxT/Y2Q+vIDfHP8TtQeo63L4/MaBKbHxpsD9N2LpMPeujPyvQtBd3z5k/hkibDb/uij/xKTXl3mt/P/EpNeXea28/roVnXn/0QT+uhWdef/RxPw==",
+          "bdata": "VYDoO6M8ET/6zK9/9oc7P+XhonBDcmE/buomK6BxgD+beRI+FCuVP1Z10OBlq6U/S76wl5AJsj/Tzh74XvW4Pw0+NWdWob4/RstcluJJwD+uKdyK9Mm/PzFl+KUX1Ls/yzXyZvoStz/8so0qYHWxP232+dPVO6g/iLDqhe3Enz+ghAP11WyTP414rtRqo4Y/QzrzBnQEeT/UPZ3IBn9pPxpnATafcVY/xKVhLahDRj92sF9yYLM3P62uihEXdic/NHmUuH1HED+YjpBC7ibzPpiOkELuJvM+JuSAarCkzj4=",
           "dtype": "f8"
          },
          "yaxis": "y"
@@ -1970,11 +1854,11 @@
    ],
    "source": [
     "# Acute stroke unit\n",
-    "plot_occupancy_freq(single_results[\"asu\"], unit=\"asu\",\n",
+    "plot_occupancy_freq(overall_results[\"asu\"], unit=\"asu\",\n",
     "                    file=\"occupancy_freq_asu.png\")\n",
     "\n",
     "# Rehabilitation unit\n",
-    "plot_occupancy_freq(single_results[\"rehab\"], unit=\"rehab\",\n",
+    "plot_occupancy_freq(overall_results[\"rehab\"], unit=\"rehab\",\n",
     "                    file=\"occupancy_freq_rehab.png\")"
    ]
   },
@@ -1982,7 +1866,7 @@
    "cell_type": "markdown",
    "metadata": {},
    "source": [
-    "## Figure 3\n",
+    "### Figure 3\n",
     "\n",
     "**Figure 3**. Simulated trade-off between the probability that a patient is delayed and the no. of acute beds available.\n",
     "\n",
@@ -1993,7 +1877,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 9,
+   "execution_count": 6,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -2027,64 +1911,64 @@
        "  <tbody>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>0</th>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000548</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000548</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>67</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000245</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000245</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.006575</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.007123</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.923077</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>570</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002082</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002327</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.894819</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
-       "      <td>3</td>\n",
-       "      <td>39</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.021370</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.028493</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.750000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2142</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.007825</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.010152</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.770781</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>76</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.041644</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.070137</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.593750</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6086</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.022232</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.032384</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.686520</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>134</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.073425</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.143562</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.511450</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12600</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.046027</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.078411</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.587002</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
        "</div>"
       ],
       "text/plain": [
-       "   beds  freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "0     1     1  0.000548  0.000548    1.000000\n",
-       "1     2    12  0.006575  0.007123    0.923077\n",
-       "2     3    39  0.021370  0.028493    0.750000\n",
-       "3     4    76  0.041644  0.070137    0.593750\n",
-       "4     5   134  0.073425  0.143562    0.511450"
+       "   beds   freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
+       "0     0     67  0.000245  0.000245    1.000000\n",
+       "1     1    570  0.002082  0.002327    0.894819\n",
+       "2     2   2142  0.007825  0.010152    0.770781\n",
+       "3     3   6086  0.022232  0.032384    0.686520\n",
+       "4     4  12600  0.046027  0.078411    0.587002"
       ]
      },
-     "execution_count": 9,
+     "execution_count": 6,
      "metadata": {},
      "output_type": "execute_result"
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "single_results[\"asu\"].head()"
+    "overall_results[\"asu\"].head()"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -2122,7 +2006,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 10,
+   "execution_count": 7,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -2177,7 +2061,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 11,
+   "execution_count": 8,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -2204,12 +2088,12 @@
          "showlegend": false,
          "type": "scatter",
          "x": {
-          "bdata": "AQIDBAUGBwgJCgsMDQ4PEBESExQVFhcYGRob",
+          "bdata": "AAECAwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhMUFRYXGBkaGw==",
           "dtype": "i1"
          },
          "xaxis": "x",
          "y": {
-          "bdata": "AAAAAAAA8D+d2Imd2IntPwAAAAAAAOg/AAAAAAAA4z/I3towzV3gP6BZrWHS2Nw/MkmJOR6T1D+SkZGRkZHRP8HIXFz71Mk/5e7bAbZNvj+cZJtkm2S7P8IQGgyhwbA/MhB22hw0qj+TXhWcA6OTPzdgqKZjLoE/2L38eLaIhT9a1kq2YRxrP4lHiqm+h2Y/EiABEiABUj+szR0cmP5BP4vOT9wQ/EE/Qm1KUor5QT8AAAAAAAAAAHEfwX0E90E/AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALCFZ15/9EE/",
+          "bdata": "AAAAAAAA8D8CgetuXKLsP4sNV508qug/m06e1vj35T+8CtyeuMjiP42pU0p6BuA/qSXTppl62j9x1FjuBmLVP+9WTb6IcNA/Bq0gv9i6yD8s6bykhLDBPxM5x9fNSbg/wbfHebF0rz9ycuDEB7ijP5ZrLrXP4pY/jWbkEMzviT9z7pcSL196P91PM8TfNms/6TlGSkRYWT8hM8wovxNFP4KVVdlBADE/BwnK5fk8IT9r4g4G/+UIP6FZt8LNpO4+chiVFr+k3j6yPInAt6TOPgAAAAAAAAAAJ+SAarCkzj4=",
           "dtype": "f8"
          },
          "yaxis": "y"
@@ -3099,12 +2983,12 @@
          "showlegend": false,
          "type": "scatter",
          "x": {
-          "bdata": "AwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhM=",
+          "bdata": "AAECAwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhMUFRYXGBkaGw==",
           "dtype": "i1"
          },
          "xaxis": "x",
          "y": {
-          "bdata": "AAAAAAAA8D+Hh4eHh4fnP9FeQnsJ7eU/c3JycnJy4j9Fg806cyLaP9YMdWfNUNc/ECqLROz90z8MxwBMxRXQP9vgup5HUsI/x6eGF9wbsj8ebiL42BKlP79jamDvmJo/Q72blPphiz8q0ZoaBLN/P3yRtVW8k28/o6ksO7wIQj+vhWdef/RxPw==",
+          "bdata": "AAAAAAAA8D+1utPqTqvrPwMKozpNDuo/VHHrBCQj6D/w+yfpgB/lP6wowwgyZOI/HbnlVh5L3z9BUUDJt9PZP9rmRLSmMtU/kAI+BBSs0D+jXQm4XPHJPwZijXLXScM/rhLQ2f1uvD9WEeTshdizP+73oW4YJKo/VW2Du3WUoD+KJdQ+uuGTP4F6+llJ6YY/FPjIaNgpeT9K6gBwpZBpPxEj6tY6eVY/uvpr4FJHRj9GEhR3FbU3Pxg/1lm0dic/VuG7l6hHED/dyFDFCSfzPu/FVdjyJvM+J+SAarCkzj4=",
           "dtype": "f8"
          },
          "yaxis": "y"
@@ -3972,8 +3856,8 @@
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "plot_delay_prob(single_results[\"asu\"], unit=\"asu\", file=\"delay_prob_asu.png\")\n",
-    "plot_delay_prob(single_results[\"rehab\"], unit=\"rehab\",\n",
+    "plot_delay_prob(overall_results[\"asu\"], unit=\"asu\", file=\"delay_prob_asu.png\")\n",
+    "plot_delay_prob(overall_results[\"rehab\"], unit=\"rehab\",\n",
     "                file=\"delay_prob_rehab.png\")"
    ]
   }
diff --git a/outputs/delay_prob_asu.png b/outputs/delay_prob_asu.png
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diff --git a/outputs/delay_prob_rehab.png b/outputs/delay_prob_rehab.png
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diff --git a/outputs/occupancy_freq_asu.png b/outputs/occupancy_freq_asu.png
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diff --git a/outputs/occupancy_freq_rehab.png b/outputs/occupancy_freq_rehab.png
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diff --git a/simulation/runner.py b/simulation/runner.py
index 5465d1b..d2a3424 100644
--- a/simulation/runner.py
+++ b/simulation/runner.py
@@ -59,6 +59,24 @@ def get_occupancy_freq(self, audit_list, unit):
         df = pd.DataFrame(
             complete_frequency.items(), columns=["beds", "freq"])
 
+        # Calculate percentage, cumulative percentage and probability of delay
+        df = self.calculate_occupancy_stats(df)
+
+        return df
+
+    def calculate_occupancy_stats(self, df):
+        """
+        Given the frequencies of each occupancy level, calculates:
+        1. Percentage
+        2. Cumulative percentage
+        3. Probability of delay
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        df: pd.Dataframe
+            Dataframe containing the frequency of each occupancy level
+            (e.g. as output by get_occupancy_freq()).
+        """
         # Add column with frequencies converted to proportions
         df["pct"] = df["freq"] / df["freq"].sum()
 
@@ -122,4 +140,27 @@ def run_reps(self):
                 delayed(self.run_single)(run)
                 for run in range(self.param.number_of_runs))
 
-        return results
+        # Extract dataframes and add run column
+        rep_dataframes = {"asu": [], "rehab": []}
+        for i, entry in enumerate(results):
+            for key in ["asu", "rehab"]:
+                df_copy = entry[key].copy()
+                df_copy["run"] = i
+                rep_dataframes[key].append(df_copy)
+
+        # Concatenate the ASU and rehab dataframes into a single dataframe each
+        result = {key: pd.concat(dfs) for key, dfs in rep_dataframes.items()}
+
+        # Create a summary dataframe for each unit with the overall frequency
+        # and occupancy for each bed
+        overall = {}
+        for unit in ["asu", "rehab"]:
+            # Sum the count the frequencies of beds across replications
+            comb = (result[unit]
+                    .groupby("beds", as_index=False)["freq"]
+                    .sum())
+            # Calculate percentage, cumulative percentage and probability of
+            # delay, and save to dictionary
+            overall[unit] = self.calculate_occupancy_stats(comb)
+
+        return result, overall

From 0e1f91603b33660e1e76e578b70da89a421a8ed2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 8 Apr 2025 16:12:21 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 04/24] feat(analysis): add scenario 1 and table 2

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb | 1075 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-
 1 file changed, 1068 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-)

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index d0e364e..43902b4 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -37,7 +37,7 @@
     "import pandas as pd\n",
     "import plotly.express as px\n",
     "\n",
-    "from simulation.parameters import Param\n",
+    "from simulation.parameters import Param, ASUArrivals, RehabArrivals\n",
     "from simulation.model import Model\n",
     "from simulation.runner import Runner"
    ]
@@ -71,7 +71,7 @@
     "runner = Runner(param=Param(cores=9))\n",
     "\n",
     "# Run the model for 150 replications\n",
-    "rep_results, overall_results = runner.run_reps()"
+    "base_reps, base_overall = runner.run_reps()"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -1854,11 +1854,11 @@
    ],
    "source": [
     "# Acute stroke unit\n",
-    "plot_occupancy_freq(overall_results[\"asu\"], unit=\"asu\",\n",
+    "plot_occupancy_freq(base_overall[\"asu\"], unit=\"asu\",\n",
     "                    file=\"occupancy_freq_asu.png\")\n",
     "\n",
     "# Rehabilitation unit\n",
-    "plot_occupancy_freq(overall_results[\"rehab\"], unit=\"rehab\",\n",
+    "plot_occupancy_freq(base_overall[\"rehab\"], unit=\"rehab\",\n",
     "                    file=\"occupancy_freq_rehab.png\")"
    ]
   },
@@ -1968,7 +1968,7 @@
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "overall_results[\"asu\"].head()"
+    "base_overall[\"asu\"].head()"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -3856,10 +3856,1071 @@
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "plot_delay_prob(overall_results[\"asu\"], unit=\"asu\", file=\"delay_prob_asu.png\")\n",
-    "plot_delay_prob(overall_results[\"rehab\"], unit=\"rehab\",\n",
+    "plot_delay_prob(base_overall[\"asu\"], unit=\"asu\", file=\"delay_prob_asu.png\")\n",
+    "plot_delay_prob(base_overall[\"rehab\"], unit=\"rehab\",\n",
     "                file=\"delay_prob_rehab.png\")"
    ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "## Scenario analysis\n",
+    "\n",
+    "### Scenario 1\n",
+    "\n",
+    "**5% more admissions.** A 5% increase in admissions across all patient subgroups."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 9,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "name": "stdout",
+     "output_type": "stream",
+     "text": [
+      "{'stroke': 1.26, 'tia': 9.765, 'neuro': 3.7800000000000002, 'other': 3.3600000000000003, '_initialised': True}\n",
+      "{'stroke': 22.89, 'neuro': 33.285000000000004, 'other': 30.03, '_initialised': True}\n"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "def increase_by_5_percent(params_dict):\n",
+    "    \"\"\"\n",
+    "    Helper function to increase all attributes of a class by 5%.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Parameters\n",
+    "    ----------\n",
+    "    params_dict: dict\n",
+    "        Dictionary of parameters.\n",
+    "    \"\"\"\n",
+    "    return {k: v * 1.05 for k, v in params_dict.items() if k != '_initialised'}\n",
+    "\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Apply 5% increase to inter-arrival parameters\n",
+    "s1_param = Param(\n",
+    "    ASUArrivals(**increase_by_5_percent(vars(ASUArrivals()))),\n",
+    "    RehabArrivals(**increase_by_5_percent(vars(RehabArrivals()))),\n",
+    "    cores=9\n",
+    ")\n",
+    "\n",
+    "print(vars(s1_param.asu_arrivals))\n",
+    "print(vars(s1_param.rehab_arrivals))"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 10,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "# Run the model for 150 replications\n",
+    "runner = Runner(param=s1_param)\n",
+    "s1_reps, s1_overall = runner.run_reps()"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### Table 2\n",
+    "\n",
+    "**Table 2** Likelihood of delay. Current admissions versus 5% more admissions.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "This table presents results from the base case and scenario 1 for acute beds 9-14 and rehab beds 10-16."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 11,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
+       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
+       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>0</th>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>67</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000245</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000245</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>1</th>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>570</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002082</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002327</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.894819</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>2</th>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2142</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.007825</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.010152</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.770781</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>3</th>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6086</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.022232</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.032384</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.686520</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>4</th>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12600</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.046027</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.078411</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.587002</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>5</th>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>21533</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.078659</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.157070</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.500791</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>6</th>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>30344</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.110846</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.267916</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.413733</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>7</th>\n",
+       "      <td>7</td>\n",
+       "      <td>36799</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.134426</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.402342</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.334108</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>8</th>\n",
+       "      <td>8</td>\n",
+       "      <td>38071</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.139072</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.541414</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.256869</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>9</th>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>35492</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.129651</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.671065</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.193202</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>10</th>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>29459</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.107613</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.778678</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.138199</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>11</th>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>22344</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.081622</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.860300</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.094876</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>12</th>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15416</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.056314</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.916614</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.061437</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>13</th>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10051</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.036716</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.953330</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.038513</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>14</th>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5966</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.021794</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.975123</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.022350</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>15</th>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3424</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.012508</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.987631</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.012664</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>16</th>\n",
+       "      <td>16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1752</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.006400</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.994031</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.006438</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>17</th>\n",
+       "      <td>17</td>\n",
+       "      <td>907</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.003313</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.997344</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.003322</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>18</th>\n",
+       "      <td>18</td>\n",
+       "      <td>423</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001545</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.998889</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001547</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>19</th>\n",
+       "      <td>19</td>\n",
+       "      <td>176</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000643</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999532</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000643</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>20</th>\n",
+       "      <td>20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>71</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000259</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999792</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000259</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>21</th>\n",
+       "      <td>21</td>\n",
+       "      <td>36</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000132</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999923</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000132</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>22</th>\n",
+       "      <td>22</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000047</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999971</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000047</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>23</th>\n",
+       "      <td>23</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999985</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>24</th>\n",
+       "      <td>24</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999993</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>25</th>\n",
+       "      <td>25</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999996</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>26</th>\n",
+       "      <td>26</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999996</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>27</th>\n",
+       "      <td>27</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "    beds   freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
+       "0      0     67  0.000245  0.000245    1.000000\n",
+       "1      1    570  0.002082  0.002327    0.894819\n",
+       "2      2   2142  0.007825  0.010152    0.770781\n",
+       "3      3   6086  0.022232  0.032384    0.686520\n",
+       "4      4  12600  0.046027  0.078411    0.587002\n",
+       "5      5  21533  0.078659  0.157070    0.500791\n",
+       "6      6  30344  0.110846  0.267916    0.413733\n",
+       "7      7  36799  0.134426  0.402342    0.334108\n",
+       "8      8  38071  0.139072  0.541414    0.256869\n",
+       "9      9  35492  0.129651  0.671065    0.193202\n",
+       "10    10  29459  0.107613  0.778678    0.138199\n",
+       "11    11  22344  0.081622  0.860300    0.094876\n",
+       "12    12  15416  0.056314  0.916614    0.061437\n",
+       "13    13  10051  0.036716  0.953330    0.038513\n",
+       "14    14   5966  0.021794  0.975123    0.022350\n",
+       "15    15   3424  0.012508  0.987631    0.012664\n",
+       "16    16   1752  0.006400  0.994031    0.006438\n",
+       "17    17    907  0.003313  0.997344    0.003322\n",
+       "18    18    423  0.001545  0.998889    0.001547\n",
+       "19    19    176  0.000643  0.999532    0.000643\n",
+       "20    20     71  0.000259  0.999792    0.000259\n",
+       "21    21     36  0.000132  0.999923    0.000132\n",
+       "22    22     13  0.000047  0.999971    0.000047\n",
+       "23    23      4  0.000015  0.999985    0.000015\n",
+       "24    24      2  0.000007  0.999993    0.000007\n",
+       "25    25      1  0.000004  0.999996    0.000004\n",
+       "26    26      0  0.000000  0.999996    0.000000\n",
+       "27    27      1  0.000004  1.000000    0.000004"
+      ]
+     },
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "display_data"
+    },
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
+       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
+       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>0</th>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>97</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000354</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000354</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>1</th>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>785</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002868</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.003222</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.890023</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>2</th>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2941</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.010743</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.013965</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.769291</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>3</th>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7843</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.028650</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.042616</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.672296</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>4</th>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15683</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.057289</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.099905</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.573440</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>5</th>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25391</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.092753</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.192658</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.481437</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>6</th>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>33962</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.124062</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.316720</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.391710</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>7</th>\n",
+       "      <td>7</td>\n",
+       "      <td>38920</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.142174</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.458893</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.309818</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>8</th>\n",
+       "      <td>8</td>\n",
+       "      <td>38264</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.139777</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.598670</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.233479</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>9</th>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>33892</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.123806</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.722477</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.171364</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>10</th>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>26889</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.098225</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.820701</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.119684</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>11</th>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>19270</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.070393</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.891094</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.078996</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>12</th>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12706</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.046415</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.937509</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.049508</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>13</th>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7915</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.028913</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.966422</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.029918</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>14</th>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4630</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.016913</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.983335</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.017200</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>15</th>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2407</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.008793</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.992128</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.008862</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>16</th>\n",
+       "      <td>16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1178</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.004303</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.996431</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.004319</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>17</th>\n",
+       "      <td>17</td>\n",
+       "      <td>552</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002016</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.998447</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002020</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>18</th>\n",
+       "      <td>18</td>\n",
+       "      <td>262</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000957</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999405</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000958</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>19</th>\n",
+       "      <td>19</td>\n",
+       "      <td>103</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000376</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999781</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000376</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>20</th>\n",
+       "      <td>20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>35</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000128</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999909</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000128</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>21</th>\n",
+       "      <td>21</td>\n",
+       "      <td>17</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000062</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999971</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000062</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>22</th>\n",
+       "      <td>22</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999985</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>23</th>\n",
+       "      <td>23</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999993</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>24</th>\n",
+       "      <td>24</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999996</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>25</th>\n",
+       "      <td>25</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999996</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>26</th>\n",
+       "      <td>26</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "    beds   freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
+       "0      0     97  0.000354  0.000354    1.000000\n",
+       "1      1    785  0.002868  0.003222    0.890023\n",
+       "2      2   2941  0.010743  0.013965    0.769291\n",
+       "3      3   7843  0.028650  0.042616    0.672296\n",
+       "4      4  15683  0.057289  0.099905    0.573440\n",
+       "5      5  25391  0.092753  0.192658    0.481437\n",
+       "6      6  33962  0.124062  0.316720    0.391710\n",
+       "7      7  38920  0.142174  0.458893    0.309818\n",
+       "8      8  38264  0.139777  0.598670    0.233479\n",
+       "9      9  33892  0.123806  0.722477    0.171364\n",
+       "10    10  26889  0.098225  0.820701    0.119684\n",
+       "11    11  19270  0.070393  0.891094    0.078996\n",
+       "12    12  12706  0.046415  0.937509    0.049508\n",
+       "13    13   7915  0.028913  0.966422    0.029918\n",
+       "14    14   4630  0.016913  0.983335    0.017200\n",
+       "15    15   2407  0.008793  0.992128    0.008862\n",
+       "16    16   1178  0.004303  0.996431    0.004319\n",
+       "17    17    552  0.002016  0.998447    0.002020\n",
+       "18    18    262  0.000957  0.999405    0.000958\n",
+       "19    19    103  0.000376  0.999781    0.000376\n",
+       "20    20     35  0.000128  0.999909    0.000128\n",
+       "21    21     17  0.000062  0.999971    0.000062\n",
+       "22    22      4  0.000015  0.999985    0.000015\n",
+       "23    23      2  0.000007  0.999993    0.000007\n",
+       "24    24      1  0.000004  0.999996    0.000004\n",
+       "25    25      0  0.000000  0.999996    0.000000\n",
+       "26    26      1  0.000004  1.000000    0.000004"
+      ]
+     },
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "display_data"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "# View the full results from the base and scenario for the ASU\n",
+    "display(base_overall[\"asu\"])\n",
+    "display(s1_overall[\"asu\"])"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 12,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "def make_table2_segment(unit, filter_beds):\n",
+    "    \"\"\"\n",
+    "    Make segment of Table 2 for either the acute stroke unit (\"asu\") or\n",
+    "    rehabilitation unit (\"rehab\").\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Parameters\n",
+    "    ----------\n",
+    "    unit: str\n",
+    "        Name of unit to extract results for (\"asu\", \"rehab\").\n",
+    "    filter_beds: list\n",
+    "        List of bed numbers to get results for.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Returns\n",
+    "    -------\n",
+    "    full_df: pd.DataFrame\n",
+    "        Results from base case and scenario side-by-side.\n",
+    "    \"\"\"\n",
+    "    # Get the overall results for base and scenario 1\n",
+    "    tab2_dict = {\"prob_delay_current\": base_overall[unit],\n",
+    "                 \"prob_delay_5\": s1_overall[unit]}\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # Create list to store modified dataframes\n",
+    "    tab2_list = []\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    for prob_name, df in tab2_dict.items():\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Extract results for specified beds\n",
+    "        df = df[df[\"beds\"].isin(filter_beds)][[\"beds\", \"prob_delay\"]]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Round probability of delay to 2 d.p.\n",
+    "        df[\"prob_delay\"] = round(df[\"prob_delay\"], 2)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Rename column to be specific to scenario\n",
+    "        df = df.rename(columns={\"prob_delay\": prob_name})\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        tab2_list.append(df)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # Combine into single dataframe\n",
+    "    full_df = pd.merge(tab2_list[0], tab2_list[1], on=\"beds\")\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # Add column with unit name\n",
+    "    full_df.insert(0, \"unit\", unit)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    return full_df"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "The scenario results in my table are most similar to those from one bed later in the article...\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Example 1:\n",
+    "\n",
+    "* My scenario ASU beds 9 = 0.17\n",
+    "* Article scenario ASU beds 9 = not reported\n",
+    "* Article scenario ASU beds 10 = 0.16\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Example 2:\n",
+    "\n",
+    "* My scenario ASU beds 10 = 0.12\n",
+    "* Article scenario ASU beds 10 = 0.16\n",
+    "* Article scenario ASU beds 11 = 0.11\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Example 3:\n",
+    "\n",
+    "* My scenario rehab beds 11 = 0.13\n",
+    "* Article scenario rehab beds 11 = not reported\n",
+    "* Article scenario rehab beds 12 = 0.13\n",
+    "\n",
+    "<mark>TODO: What would we expect? For it to go up or down with this scenario?</mark>"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 13,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>unit</th>\n",
+       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay_current</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay_5</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>0</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.19</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.17</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>1</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.12</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>2</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>3</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>4</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>5</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>6</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.18</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>7</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.13</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>8</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>9</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>10</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>11</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>12</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  prob_delay_5\n",
+       "0     asu     9                0.19          0.17\n",
+       "1     asu    10                0.14          0.12\n",
+       "2     asu    11                0.09          0.08\n",
+       "3     asu    12                0.06          0.05\n",
+       "4     asu    13                0.04          0.03\n",
+       "5     asu    14                0.02          0.02\n",
+       "6   rehab    10                0.20          0.18\n",
+       "7   rehab    11                0.15          0.13\n",
+       "8   rehab    12                0.11          0.09\n",
+       "9   rehab    13                0.08          0.06\n",
+       "10  rehab    14                0.05          0.04\n",
+       "11  rehab    15                0.03          0.02\n",
+       "12  rehab    16                0.02          0.01"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 13,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "# Acute stroke unit: 9 to 14 beds\n",
+    "tab2_asu = make_table2_segment(unit=\"asu\", filter_beds=list(range(9,15)))\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Rehab unit: 10 to 16 beds, excluding 11 (we do this later, so can still see)\n",
+    "tab2_rehab = make_table2_segment(unit=\"rehab\", filter_beds=list(range(10,17)))\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Combine into a single table\n",
+    "full_tab2 = pd.concat([tab2_asu, tab2_rehab]).reset_index(drop=True)\n",
+    "full_tab2"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 14,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>unit</th>\n",
+       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay_current</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay_5</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>0</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.19</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>1</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.12</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>2</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>3</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>4</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>5</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>6</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>8</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>9</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>10</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>11</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>12</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  prob_delay_5\n",
+       "0     asu     9                0.19           NaN\n",
+       "1     asu    10                0.14          0.12\n",
+       "2     asu    11                0.09          0.08\n",
+       "3     asu    12                0.06          0.05\n",
+       "4     asu    13                0.04          0.03\n",
+       "5     asu    14                0.02          0.02\n",
+       "6   rehab    10                0.20           NaN\n",
+       "8   rehab    12                0.11          0.09\n",
+       "9   rehab    13                0.08          0.06\n",
+       "10  rehab    14                0.05          0.04\n",
+       "11  rehab    15                0.03          0.02\n",
+       "12  rehab    16                0.02          0.01"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 14,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "# These are some adjustments to how table is presented in article...\n",
+    "\n",
+    "adj_full_tab_2 = full_tab2.copy()\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Drop the result for ASU beds 9 and rehab beds 10 for the scenario\n",
+    "adj_full_tab_2.loc[(adj_full_tab_2[\"unit\"] == \"asu\") &\n",
+    "                   (adj_full_tab_2[\"beds\"] == 9),\n",
+    "                   \"prob_delay_5\"] = None\n",
+    "adj_full_tab_2.loc[(adj_full_tab_2[\"unit\"] == \"rehab\") &\n",
+    "                   (adj_full_tab_2[\"beds\"] == 10),\n",
+    "                   \"prob_delay_5\"] = None\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Drop the result for rehab 11 beds\n",
+    "adj_full_tab_2 = adj_full_tab_2[\n",
+    "    ~((adj_full_tab_2[\"unit\"] == \"rehab\") & (adj_full_tab_2[\"beds\"] == 11))]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "adj_full_tab_2"
+   ]
   }
  ],
  "metadata": {

From 99556b4c72f1bcc4a4491a514ffe6b92357af589 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 8 Apr 2025 16:23:06 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 05/24] fix(analysis): corrected scenario 1 from increasing IAT
 by 5% (hence decreasing admission) to decreasing IAT by 5% (hence increasing
 admissions)

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb | 406 ++++++++++++++++++---------------------
 outputs/delay_s1.csv     |  13 ++
 2 files changed, 203 insertions(+), 216 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 outputs/delay_s1.csv

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index 43902b4..6fa3450 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -3881,28 +3881,28 @@
      "name": "stdout",
      "output_type": "stream",
      "text": [
-      "{'stroke': 1.26, 'tia': 9.765, 'neuro': 3.7800000000000002, 'other': 3.3600000000000003, '_initialised': True}\n",
-      "{'stroke': 22.89, 'neuro': 33.285000000000004, 'other': 30.03, '_initialised': True}\n"
+      "{'stroke': 1.14, 'tia': 8.835, 'neuro': 3.42, 'other': 3.04, '_initialised': True}\n",
+      "{'stroke': 20.71, 'neuro': 30.115, 'other': 27.17, '_initialised': True}\n"
      ]
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "def increase_by_5_percent(params_dict):\n",
+    "def alter_by_5_percent(params_dict):\n",
     "    \"\"\"\n",
-    "    Helper function to increase all attributes of a class by 5%.\n",
+    "    Helper function to reduce all attributes of a class by 5%.\n",
     "\n",
     "    Parameters\n",
     "    ----------\n",
     "    params_dict: dict\n",
     "        Dictionary of parameters.\n",
     "    \"\"\"\n",
-    "    return {k: v * 1.05 for k, v in params_dict.items() if k != '_initialised'}\n",
+    "    return {k: v * 0.95 for k, v in params_dict.items() if k != '_initialised'}\n",
     "\n",
     "\n",
     "# Apply 5% increase to inter-arrival parameters\n",
     "s1_param = Param(\n",
-    "    ASUArrivals(**increase_by_5_percent(vars(ASUArrivals()))),\n",
-    "    RehabArrivals(**increase_by_5_percent(vars(RehabArrivals()))),\n",
+    "    ASUArrivals(**alter_by_5_percent(vars(ASUArrivals()))),\n",
+    "    RehabArrivals(**alter_by_5_percent(vars(RehabArrivals()))),\n",
     "    cores=9\n",
     ")\n",
     "\n",
@@ -4261,218 +4261,218 @@
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>0</th>\n",
        "      <td>0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>97</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000354</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000354</td>\n",
+       "      <td>49</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000179</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000179</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>785</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002868</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.003222</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.890023</td>\n",
+       "      <td>398</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001454</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001633</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.890380</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2941</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.010743</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.013965</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.769291</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1550</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.005662</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.007295</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.776164</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>3</td>\n",
-       "      <td>7843</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.028650</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.042616</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.672296</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4586</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.016753</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.024047</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.696643</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>15683</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.057289</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.099905</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.573440</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10088</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.036851</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.060899</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.605123</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>5</th>\n",
        "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>25391</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.092753</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.192658</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.481437</td>\n",
+       "      <td>17643</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.064449</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.125348</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.514163</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
        "      <td>6</td>\n",
-       "      <td>33962</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.124062</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.316720</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.391710</td>\n",
+       "      <td>26749</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.097713</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.223061</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.438056</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>7</th>\n",
        "      <td>7</td>\n",
-       "      <td>38920</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.142174</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.458893</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.309818</td>\n",
+       "      <td>34016</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.124259</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.347321</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.357766</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>8</th>\n",
        "      <td>8</td>\n",
-       "      <td>38264</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.139777</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.598670</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.233479</td>\n",
+       "      <td>36840</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.134575</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.481896</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.279262</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>9</th>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
-       "      <td>33892</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.123806</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.722477</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.171364</td>\n",
+       "      <td>35927</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.131240</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.613136</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.214047</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>10</th>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
-       "      <td>26889</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.098225</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.820701</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.119684</td>\n",
+       "      <td>32005</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.116913</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.730049</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.160144</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>11</th>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>19270</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.070393</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.891094</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.078996</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25034</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.091448</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.821498</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.111319</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>12</th>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12706</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.046415</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.937509</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.049508</td>\n",
+       "      <td>18505</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.067598</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.889096</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.076030</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>13</th>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
-       "      <td>7915</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.028913</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.966422</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.029918</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12523</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.045746</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.934842</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.048935</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>14</th>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>4630</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.016913</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.983335</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.017200</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7983</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.029162</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.964004</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.030251</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>15</th>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2407</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.008793</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.992128</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.008862</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4676</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.017081</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.981085</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.017411</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>16</th>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1178</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.004303</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.996431</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.004319</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2550</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.009315</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.990400</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.009405</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>17</th>\n",
        "      <td>17</td>\n",
-       "      <td>552</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002016</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.998447</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002020</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1415</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.005169</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.995569</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.005192</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>18</th>\n",
        "      <td>18</td>\n",
-       "      <td>262</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000957</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999405</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000958</td>\n",
+       "      <td>644</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002353</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.997921</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002357</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>19</th>\n",
        "      <td>19</td>\n",
-       "      <td>103</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000376</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999781</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000376</td>\n",
+       "      <td>317</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001158</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999079</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001159</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>20</th>\n",
        "      <td>20</td>\n",
-       "      <td>35</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000128</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999909</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000128</td>\n",
+       "      <td>153</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000559</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999638</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000559</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>21</th>\n",
        "      <td>21</td>\n",
-       "      <td>17</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000062</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999971</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000062</td>\n",
+       "      <td>55</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000201</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999839</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000201</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>22</th>\n",
        "      <td>22</td>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999985</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000091</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999931</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000091</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>23</th>\n",
        "      <td>23</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999993</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000044</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999974</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000044</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>24</th>\n",
        "      <td>24</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999996</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000011</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999985</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000011</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>25</th>\n",
        "      <td>25</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999996</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999993</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>26</th>\n",
        "      <td>26</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
@@ -4480,33 +4480,33 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "    beds   freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "0      0     97  0.000354  0.000354    1.000000\n",
-       "1      1    785  0.002868  0.003222    0.890023\n",
-       "2      2   2941  0.010743  0.013965    0.769291\n",
-       "3      3   7843  0.028650  0.042616    0.672296\n",
-       "4      4  15683  0.057289  0.099905    0.573440\n",
-       "5      5  25391  0.092753  0.192658    0.481437\n",
-       "6      6  33962  0.124062  0.316720    0.391710\n",
-       "7      7  38920  0.142174  0.458893    0.309818\n",
-       "8      8  38264  0.139777  0.598670    0.233479\n",
-       "9      9  33892  0.123806  0.722477    0.171364\n",
-       "10    10  26889  0.098225  0.820701    0.119684\n",
-       "11    11  19270  0.070393  0.891094    0.078996\n",
-       "12    12  12706  0.046415  0.937509    0.049508\n",
-       "13    13   7915  0.028913  0.966422    0.029918\n",
-       "14    14   4630  0.016913  0.983335    0.017200\n",
-       "15    15   2407  0.008793  0.992128    0.008862\n",
-       "16    16   1178  0.004303  0.996431    0.004319\n",
-       "17    17    552  0.002016  0.998447    0.002020\n",
-       "18    18    262  0.000957  0.999405    0.000958\n",
-       "19    19    103  0.000376  0.999781    0.000376\n",
-       "20    20     35  0.000128  0.999909    0.000128\n",
-       "21    21     17  0.000062  0.999971    0.000062\n",
-       "22    22      4  0.000015  0.999985    0.000015\n",
-       "23    23      2  0.000007  0.999993    0.000007\n",
-       "24    24      1  0.000004  0.999996    0.000004\n",
-       "25    25      0  0.000000  0.999996    0.000000\n",
-       "26    26      1  0.000004  1.000000    0.000004"
+       "0      0     49  0.000179  0.000179    1.000000\n",
+       "1      1    398  0.001454  0.001633    0.890380\n",
+       "2      2   1550  0.005662  0.007295    0.776164\n",
+       "3      3   4586  0.016753  0.024047    0.696643\n",
+       "4      4  10088  0.036851  0.060899    0.605123\n",
+       "5      5  17643  0.064449  0.125348    0.514163\n",
+       "6      6  26749  0.097713  0.223061    0.438056\n",
+       "7      7  34016  0.124259  0.347321    0.357766\n",
+       "8      8  36840  0.134575  0.481896    0.279262\n",
+       "9      9  35927  0.131240  0.613136    0.214047\n",
+       "10    10  32005  0.116913  0.730049    0.160144\n",
+       "11    11  25034  0.091448  0.821498    0.111319\n",
+       "12    12  18505  0.067598  0.889096    0.076030\n",
+       "13    13  12523  0.045746  0.934842    0.048935\n",
+       "14    14   7983  0.029162  0.964004    0.030251\n",
+       "15    15   4676  0.017081  0.981085    0.017411\n",
+       "16    16   2550  0.009315  0.990400    0.009405\n",
+       "17    17   1415  0.005169  0.995569    0.005192\n",
+       "18    18    644  0.002353  0.997921    0.002357\n",
+       "19    19    317  0.001158  0.999079    0.001159\n",
+       "20    20    153  0.000559  0.999638    0.000559\n",
+       "21    21     55  0.000201  0.999839    0.000201\n",
+       "22    22     25  0.000091  0.999931    0.000091\n",
+       "23    23     12  0.000044  0.999974    0.000044\n",
+       "24    24      3  0.000011  0.999985    0.000011\n",
+       "25    25      2  0.000007  0.999993    0.000007\n",
+       "26    26      2  0.000007  1.000000    0.000007"
       ]
      },
      "metadata": {},
@@ -4571,33 +4571,6 @@
     "    return full_df"
    ]
   },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "source": [
-    "The scenario results in my table are most similar to those from one bed later in the article...\n",
-    "\n",
-    "Example 1:\n",
-    "\n",
-    "* My scenario ASU beds 9 = 0.17\n",
-    "* Article scenario ASU beds 9 = not reported\n",
-    "* Article scenario ASU beds 10 = 0.16\n",
-    "\n",
-    "Example 2:\n",
-    "\n",
-    "* My scenario ASU beds 10 = 0.12\n",
-    "* Article scenario ASU beds 10 = 0.16\n",
-    "* Article scenario ASU beds 11 = 0.11\n",
-    "\n",
-    "Example 3:\n",
-    "\n",
-    "* My scenario rehab beds 11 = 0.13\n",
-    "* Article scenario rehab beds 11 = not reported\n",
-    "* Article scenario rehab beds 12 = 0.13\n",
-    "\n",
-    "<mark>TODO: What would we expect? For it to go up or down with this scenario?</mark>"
-   ]
-  },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": 13,
@@ -4636,91 +4609,91 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.19</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.17</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.21</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.16</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>5</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.18</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.23</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>7</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.18</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>8</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.13</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>9</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>10</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>11</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>12</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
@@ -4728,19 +4701,19 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  prob_delay_5\n",
-       "0     asu     9                0.19          0.17\n",
-       "1     asu    10                0.14          0.12\n",
-       "2     asu    11                0.09          0.08\n",
-       "3     asu    12                0.06          0.05\n",
-       "4     asu    13                0.04          0.03\n",
-       "5     asu    14                0.02          0.02\n",
-       "6   rehab    10                0.20          0.18\n",
-       "7   rehab    11                0.15          0.13\n",
-       "8   rehab    12                0.11          0.09\n",
-       "9   rehab    13                0.08          0.06\n",
-       "10  rehab    14                0.05          0.04\n",
-       "11  rehab    15                0.03          0.02\n",
-       "12  rehab    16                0.02          0.01"
+       "0     asu     9                0.19          0.21\n",
+       "1     asu    10                0.14          0.16\n",
+       "2     asu    11                0.09          0.11\n",
+       "3     asu    12                0.06          0.08\n",
+       "4     asu    13                0.04          0.05\n",
+       "5     asu    14                0.02          0.03\n",
+       "6   rehab    10                0.20          0.23\n",
+       "7   rehab    11                0.15          0.18\n",
+       "8   rehab    12                0.11          0.13\n",
+       "9   rehab    13                0.08          0.09\n",
+       "10  rehab    14                0.05          0.06\n",
+       "11  rehab    15                0.03          0.04\n",
+       "12  rehab    16                0.02          0.03"
       ]
      },
      "execution_count": 13,
@@ -4805,35 +4778,35 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.16</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>5</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
@@ -4847,35 +4820,35 @@
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.13</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>9</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>10</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>11</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>12</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
@@ -4884,22 +4857,21 @@
       "text/plain": [
        "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  prob_delay_5\n",
        "0     asu     9                0.19           NaN\n",
-       "1     asu    10                0.14          0.12\n",
-       "2     asu    11                0.09          0.08\n",
-       "3     asu    12                0.06          0.05\n",
-       "4     asu    13                0.04          0.03\n",
-       "5     asu    14                0.02          0.02\n",
+       "1     asu    10                0.14          0.16\n",
+       "2     asu    11                0.09          0.11\n",
+       "3     asu    12                0.06          0.08\n",
+       "4     asu    13                0.04          0.05\n",
+       "5     asu    14                0.02          0.03\n",
        "6   rehab    10                0.20           NaN\n",
-       "8   rehab    12                0.11          0.09\n",
-       "9   rehab    13                0.08          0.06\n",
-       "10  rehab    14                0.05          0.04\n",
-       "11  rehab    15                0.03          0.02\n",
-       "12  rehab    16                0.02          0.01"
+       "8   rehab    12                0.11          0.13\n",
+       "9   rehab    13                0.08          0.09\n",
+       "10  rehab    14                0.05          0.06\n",
+       "11  rehab    15                0.03          0.04\n",
+       "12  rehab    16                0.02          0.03"
       ]
      },
-     "execution_count": 14,
      "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
+     "output_type": "display_data"
     }
    ],
    "source": [
@@ -4919,7 +4891,9 @@
     "adj_full_tab_2 = adj_full_tab_2[\n",
     "    ~((adj_full_tab_2[\"unit\"] == \"rehab\") & (adj_full_tab_2[\"beds\"] == 11))]\n",
     "\n",
-    "adj_full_tab_2"
+    "# Display and save to csv\n",
+    "display(adj_full_tab_2)\n",
+    "adj_full_tab_2.to_csv(os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"delay_s1.csv\"), index=False)"
    ]
   }
  ],
diff --git a/outputs/delay_s1.csv b/outputs/delay_s1.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..9101344
--- /dev/null
+++ b/outputs/delay_s1.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+unit,beds,prob_delay_current,prob_delay_5
+asu,9,0.19,
+asu,10,0.14,0.16
+asu,11,0.09,0.11
+asu,12,0.06,0.08
+asu,13,0.04,0.05
+asu,14,0.02,0.03
+rehab,10,0.2,
+rehab,12,0.11,0.13
+rehab,13,0.08,0.09
+rehab,14,0.05,0.06
+rehab,15,0.03,0.04
+rehab,16,0.02,0.03

From dd55b6f7a61dfedfd0a80b389c0cc68afed591e3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 8 Apr 2025 16:45:09 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 06/24] feat(analysis): add 1 in n patients delayed to table
 for scenario 1, and add scenario 4 run

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb | 815 +++++++++------------------------------
 outputs/delay_s1.csv     |  26 +-
 2 files changed, 198 insertions(+), 643 deletions(-)

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index 6fa3450..19a038f 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -16,7 +16,9 @@
     "    * Run the model\n",
     "    * Figure 1\n",
     "    * Figure 3\n",
-    "* Scenario analysis"
+    "* Scenario analysis\n",
+    "    * Scenario 1\n",
+    "    * Table 2"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -3901,8 +3903,8 @@
     "\n",
     "# Apply 5% increase to inter-arrival parameters\n",
     "s1_param = Param(\n",
-    "    ASUArrivals(**alter_by_5_percent(vars(ASUArrivals()))),\n",
-    "    RehabArrivals(**alter_by_5_percent(vars(RehabArrivals()))),\n",
+    "    asu_arrivals=ASUArrivals(**alter_by_5_percent(vars(ASUArrivals()))),\n",
+    "    rehab_arrivals=RehabArrivals(**alter_by_5_percent(vars(RehabArrivals()))),\n",
     "    cores=9\n",
     ")\n",
     "\n",
@@ -3936,593 +3938,6 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": 11,
    "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/html": [
-       "<div>\n",
-       "<style scoped>\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
-       "        text-align: right;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "</style>\n",
-       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
-       "  <thead>\n",
-       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
-       "      <th></th>\n",
-       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
-       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
-       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </thead>\n",
-       "  <tbody>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>0</th>\n",
-       "      <td>0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>67</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000245</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000245</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>1</th>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>570</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002082</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002327</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.894819</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>2</th>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2142</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.007825</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.010152</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.770781</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>3</th>\n",
-       "      <td>3</td>\n",
-       "      <td>6086</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.022232</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.032384</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.686520</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>4</th>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12600</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.046027</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.078411</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.587002</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>5</th>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>21533</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.078659</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.157070</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.500791</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>6</th>\n",
-       "      <td>6</td>\n",
-       "      <td>30344</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.110846</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.267916</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.413733</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>7</th>\n",
-       "      <td>7</td>\n",
-       "      <td>36799</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.134426</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.402342</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.334108</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>8</th>\n",
-       "      <td>8</td>\n",
-       "      <td>38071</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.139072</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.541414</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.256869</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>9</th>\n",
-       "      <td>9</td>\n",
-       "      <td>35492</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.129651</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.671065</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.193202</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>10</th>\n",
-       "      <td>10</td>\n",
-       "      <td>29459</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.107613</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.778678</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.138199</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>11</th>\n",
-       "      <td>11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>22344</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.081622</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.860300</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.094876</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>12</th>\n",
-       "      <td>12</td>\n",
-       "      <td>15416</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.056314</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.916614</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.061437</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>13</th>\n",
-       "      <td>13</td>\n",
-       "      <td>10051</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.036716</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.953330</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.038513</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>14</th>\n",
-       "      <td>14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5966</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.021794</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.975123</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.022350</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>15</th>\n",
-       "      <td>15</td>\n",
-       "      <td>3424</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.012508</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.987631</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.012664</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>16</th>\n",
-       "      <td>16</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1752</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.006400</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.994031</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.006438</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>17</th>\n",
-       "      <td>17</td>\n",
-       "      <td>907</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.003313</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.997344</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.003322</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>18</th>\n",
-       "      <td>18</td>\n",
-       "      <td>423</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001545</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.998889</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001547</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>19</th>\n",
-       "      <td>19</td>\n",
-       "      <td>176</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000643</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999532</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000643</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>20</th>\n",
-       "      <td>20</td>\n",
-       "      <td>71</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000259</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999792</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000259</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>21</th>\n",
-       "      <td>21</td>\n",
-       "      <td>36</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000132</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999923</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000132</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>22</th>\n",
-       "      <td>22</td>\n",
-       "      <td>13</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000047</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999971</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000047</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>23</th>\n",
-       "      <td>23</td>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999985</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>24</th>\n",
-       "      <td>24</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999993</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>25</th>\n",
-       "      <td>25</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999996</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>26</th>\n",
-       "      <td>26</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999996</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>27</th>\n",
-       "      <td>27</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </tbody>\n",
-       "</table>\n",
-       "</div>"
-      ],
-      "text/plain": [
-       "    beds   freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "0      0     67  0.000245  0.000245    1.000000\n",
-       "1      1    570  0.002082  0.002327    0.894819\n",
-       "2      2   2142  0.007825  0.010152    0.770781\n",
-       "3      3   6086  0.022232  0.032384    0.686520\n",
-       "4      4  12600  0.046027  0.078411    0.587002\n",
-       "5      5  21533  0.078659  0.157070    0.500791\n",
-       "6      6  30344  0.110846  0.267916    0.413733\n",
-       "7      7  36799  0.134426  0.402342    0.334108\n",
-       "8      8  38071  0.139072  0.541414    0.256869\n",
-       "9      9  35492  0.129651  0.671065    0.193202\n",
-       "10    10  29459  0.107613  0.778678    0.138199\n",
-       "11    11  22344  0.081622  0.860300    0.094876\n",
-       "12    12  15416  0.056314  0.916614    0.061437\n",
-       "13    13  10051  0.036716  0.953330    0.038513\n",
-       "14    14   5966  0.021794  0.975123    0.022350\n",
-       "15    15   3424  0.012508  0.987631    0.012664\n",
-       "16    16   1752  0.006400  0.994031    0.006438\n",
-       "17    17    907  0.003313  0.997344    0.003322\n",
-       "18    18    423  0.001545  0.998889    0.001547\n",
-       "19    19    176  0.000643  0.999532    0.000643\n",
-       "20    20     71  0.000259  0.999792    0.000259\n",
-       "21    21     36  0.000132  0.999923    0.000132\n",
-       "22    22     13  0.000047  0.999971    0.000047\n",
-       "23    23      4  0.000015  0.999985    0.000015\n",
-       "24    24      2  0.000007  0.999993    0.000007\n",
-       "25    25      1  0.000004  0.999996    0.000004\n",
-       "26    26      0  0.000000  0.999996    0.000000\n",
-       "27    27      1  0.000004  1.000000    0.000004"
-      ]
-     },
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "display_data"
-    },
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/html": [
-       "<div>\n",
-       "<style scoped>\n",
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-       "\n",
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-       "\n",
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-       "</style>\n",
-       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
-       "  <thead>\n",
-       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
-       "      <th></th>\n",
-       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
-       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
-       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </thead>\n",
-       "  <tbody>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>0</th>\n",
-       "      <td>0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>49</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000179</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000179</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>1</th>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>398</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001454</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001633</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.890380</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>2</th>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1550</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.005662</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.007295</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.776164</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>3</th>\n",
-       "      <td>3</td>\n",
-       "      <td>4586</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.016753</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.024047</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.696643</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>4</th>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>10088</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.036851</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.060899</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.605123</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>5</th>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>17643</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.064449</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.125348</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.514163</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>6</th>\n",
-       "      <td>6</td>\n",
-       "      <td>26749</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.097713</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.223061</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.438056</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>7</th>\n",
-       "      <td>7</td>\n",
-       "      <td>34016</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.124259</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.347321</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.357766</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>8</th>\n",
-       "      <td>8</td>\n",
-       "      <td>36840</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.134575</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.481896</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.279262</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>9</th>\n",
-       "      <td>9</td>\n",
-       "      <td>35927</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.131240</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.613136</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.214047</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>10</th>\n",
-       "      <td>10</td>\n",
-       "      <td>32005</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.116913</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.730049</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.160144</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>11</th>\n",
-       "      <td>11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>25034</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.091448</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.821498</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.111319</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>12</th>\n",
-       "      <td>12</td>\n",
-       "      <td>18505</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.067598</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.889096</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.076030</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>13</th>\n",
-       "      <td>13</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12523</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.045746</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.934842</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.048935</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>14</th>\n",
-       "      <td>14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>7983</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.029162</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.964004</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.030251</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>15</th>\n",
-       "      <td>15</td>\n",
-       "      <td>4676</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.017081</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.981085</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.017411</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>16</th>\n",
-       "      <td>16</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2550</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.009315</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.990400</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.009405</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>17</th>\n",
-       "      <td>17</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1415</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.005169</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.995569</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.005192</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>18</th>\n",
-       "      <td>18</td>\n",
-       "      <td>644</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002353</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.997921</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002357</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>19</th>\n",
-       "      <td>19</td>\n",
-       "      <td>317</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001158</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999079</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001159</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>20</th>\n",
-       "      <td>20</td>\n",
-       "      <td>153</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000559</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999638</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000559</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>21</th>\n",
-       "      <td>21</td>\n",
-       "      <td>55</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000201</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999839</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000201</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>22</th>\n",
-       "      <td>22</td>\n",
-       "      <td>25</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000091</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999931</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000091</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>23</th>\n",
-       "      <td>23</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000044</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999974</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000044</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>24</th>\n",
-       "      <td>24</td>\n",
-       "      <td>3</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000011</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999985</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000011</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>25</th>\n",
-       "      <td>25</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999993</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>26</th>\n",
-       "      <td>26</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </tbody>\n",
-       "</table>\n",
-       "</div>"
-      ],
-      "text/plain": [
-       "    beds   freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "0      0     49  0.000179  0.000179    1.000000\n",
-       "1      1    398  0.001454  0.001633    0.890380\n",
-       "2      2   1550  0.005662  0.007295    0.776164\n",
-       "3      3   4586  0.016753  0.024047    0.696643\n",
-       "4      4  10088  0.036851  0.060899    0.605123\n",
-       "5      5  17643  0.064449  0.125348    0.514163\n",
-       "6      6  26749  0.097713  0.223061    0.438056\n",
-       "7      7  34016  0.124259  0.347321    0.357766\n",
-       "8      8  36840  0.134575  0.481896    0.279262\n",
-       "9      9  35927  0.131240  0.613136    0.214047\n",
-       "10    10  32005  0.116913  0.730049    0.160144\n",
-       "11    11  25034  0.091448  0.821498    0.111319\n",
-       "12    12  18505  0.067598  0.889096    0.076030\n",
-       "13    13  12523  0.045746  0.934842    0.048935\n",
-       "14    14   7983  0.029162  0.964004    0.030251\n",
-       "15    15   4676  0.017081  0.981085    0.017411\n",
-       "16    16   2550  0.009315  0.990400    0.009405\n",
-       "17    17   1415  0.005169  0.995569    0.005192\n",
-       "18    18    644  0.002353  0.997921    0.002357\n",
-       "19    19    317  0.001158  0.999079    0.001159\n",
-       "20    20    153  0.000559  0.999638    0.000559\n",
-       "21    21     55  0.000201  0.999839    0.000201\n",
-       "22    22     25  0.000091  0.999931    0.000091\n",
-       "23    23     12  0.000044  0.999974    0.000044\n",
-       "24    24      3  0.000011  0.999985    0.000011\n",
-       "25    25      2  0.000007  0.999993    0.000007\n",
-       "26    26      2  0.000007  1.000000    0.000007"
-      ]
-     },
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "display_data"
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "# View the full results from the base and scenario for the ASU\n",
-    "display(base_overall[\"asu\"])\n",
-    "display(s1_overall[\"asu\"])"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 12,
-   "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
     "def make_table2_segment(unit, filter_beds):\n",
@@ -4543,13 +3958,13 @@
     "        Results from base case and scenario side-by-side.\n",
     "    \"\"\"\n",
     "    # Get the overall results for base and scenario 1\n",
-    "    tab2_dict = {\"prob_delay_current\": base_overall[unit],\n",
-    "                 \"prob_delay_5\": s1_overall[unit]}\n",
+    "    tab2_dict = {\"current\": base_overall[unit],\n",
+    "                 \"5%\": s1_overall[unit]}\n",
     "\n",
     "    # Create list to store modified dataframes\n",
     "    tab2_list = []\n",
     "\n",
-    "    for prob_name, df in tab2_dict.items():\n",
+    "    for scenario_name, df in tab2_dict.items():\n",
     "\n",
     "        # Extract results for specified beds\n",
     "        df = df[df[\"beds\"].isin(filter_beds)][[\"beds\", \"prob_delay\"]]\n",
@@ -4557,9 +3972,14 @@
     "        # Round probability of delay to 2 d.p.\n",
     "        df[\"prob_delay\"] = round(df[\"prob_delay\"], 2)\n",
     "\n",
+    "        # Add column with calculation of 1 in every n patients delayed\n",
+    "        df[f\"1_in_n_delay_{scenario_name}\"] = (\n",
+    "            round(1 / df[\"prob_delay\"]).astype(int))\n",
+    "\n",
     "        # Rename column to be specific to scenario\n",
-    "        df = df.rename(columns={\"prob_delay\": prob_name})\n",
+    "        df = df.rename(columns={\"prob_delay\": f\"prob_delay_{scenario_name}\"})\n",
     "\n",
+    "        # Save dataframe to list\n",
     "        tab2_list.append(df)\n",
     "\n",
     "    # Combine into single dataframe\n",
@@ -4573,7 +3993,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 13,
+   "execution_count": 12,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -4600,7 +4020,9 @@
        "      <th>unit</th>\n",
        "      <th>beds</th>\n",
        "      <th>prob_delay_current</th>\n",
-       "      <th>prob_delay_5</th>\n",
+       "      <th>1_in_n_delay_current</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay_5%</th>\n",
+       "      <th>1_in_n_delay_5%</th>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </thead>\n",
        "  <tbody>\n",
@@ -4609,114 +4031,155 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.19</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.21</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "      <td>17</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>5</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>50</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>33</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.23</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>7</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.18</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>8</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>9</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>10</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "      <td>17</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>11</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>33</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>12</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>50</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>33</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
        "</div>"
       ],
       "text/plain": [
-       "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  prob_delay_5\n",
-       "0     asu     9                0.19          0.21\n",
-       "1     asu    10                0.14          0.16\n",
-       "2     asu    11                0.09          0.11\n",
-       "3     asu    12                0.06          0.08\n",
-       "4     asu    13                0.04          0.05\n",
-       "5     asu    14                0.02          0.03\n",
-       "6   rehab    10                0.20          0.23\n",
-       "7   rehab    11                0.15          0.18\n",
-       "8   rehab    12                0.11          0.13\n",
-       "9   rehab    13                0.08          0.09\n",
-       "10  rehab    14                0.05          0.06\n",
-       "11  rehab    15                0.03          0.04\n",
-       "12  rehab    16                0.02          0.03"
+       "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  1_in_n_delay_current  prob_delay_5%  \\\n",
+       "0     asu     9                0.19                     5           0.21   \n",
+       "1     asu    10                0.14                     7           0.16   \n",
+       "2     asu    11                0.09                    11           0.11   \n",
+       "3     asu    12                0.06                    17           0.08   \n",
+       "4     asu    13                0.04                    25           0.05   \n",
+       "5     asu    14                0.02                    50           0.03   \n",
+       "6   rehab    10                0.20                     5           0.23   \n",
+       "7   rehab    11                0.15                     7           0.18   \n",
+       "8   rehab    12                0.11                     9           0.13   \n",
+       "9   rehab    13                0.08                    12           0.09   \n",
+       "10  rehab    14                0.05                    20           0.06   \n",
+       "11  rehab    15                0.03                    33           0.04   \n",
+       "12  rehab    16                0.02                    50           0.03   \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    1_in_n_delay_5%  \n",
+       "0                 5  \n",
+       "1                 6  \n",
+       "2                 9  \n",
+       "3                12  \n",
+       "4                20  \n",
+       "5                33  \n",
+       "6                 4  \n",
+       "7                 6  \n",
+       "8                 8  \n",
+       "9                11  \n",
+       "10               17  \n",
+       "11               25  \n",
+       "12               33  "
       ]
      },
-     "execution_count": 13,
+     "execution_count": 12,
      "metadata": {},
      "output_type": "execute_result"
     }
@@ -4733,9 +4196,20 @@
     "full_tab2"
    ]
   },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "These are some adjustments to how table is presented in article...\n",
+    "\n",
+    "(hiding / dropping some results)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "The 1 in n delay columns are int columns rounded to 1 d.p., but python doesn't allow NaN in an int column, so they display as floats below."
+   ]
+  },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 14,
+   "execution_count": 13,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -4762,7 +4236,9 @@
        "      <th>unit</th>\n",
        "      <th>beds</th>\n",
        "      <th>prob_delay_current</th>\n",
-       "      <th>prob_delay_5</th>\n",
+       "      <th>1_in_n_delay_current</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay_5%</th>\n",
+       "      <th>1_in_n_delay_5%</th>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </thead>\n",
        "  <tbody>\n",
@@ -4771,6 +4247,8 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.19</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
        "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
@@ -4778,41 +4256,53 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "      <td>17</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>5</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>50</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>33.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
        "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
@@ -4820,54 +4310,78 @@
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>9</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>10</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "      <td>17.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>11</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>33</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>12</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>50</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>33.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
        "</div>"
       ],
       "text/plain": [
-       "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  prob_delay_5\n",
-       "0     asu     9                0.19           NaN\n",
-       "1     asu    10                0.14          0.16\n",
-       "2     asu    11                0.09          0.11\n",
-       "3     asu    12                0.06          0.08\n",
-       "4     asu    13                0.04          0.05\n",
-       "5     asu    14                0.02          0.03\n",
-       "6   rehab    10                0.20           NaN\n",
-       "8   rehab    12                0.11          0.13\n",
-       "9   rehab    13                0.08          0.09\n",
-       "10  rehab    14                0.05          0.06\n",
-       "11  rehab    15                0.03          0.04\n",
-       "12  rehab    16                0.02          0.03"
+       "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  1_in_n_delay_current  prob_delay_5%  \\\n",
+       "0     asu     9                0.19                     5            NaN   \n",
+       "1     asu    10                0.14                     7           0.16   \n",
+       "2     asu    11                0.09                    11           0.11   \n",
+       "3     asu    12                0.06                    17           0.08   \n",
+       "4     asu    13                0.04                    25           0.05   \n",
+       "5     asu    14                0.02                    50           0.03   \n",
+       "6   rehab    10                0.20                     5            NaN   \n",
+       "8   rehab    12                0.11                     9           0.13   \n",
+       "9   rehab    13                0.08                    12           0.09   \n",
+       "10  rehab    14                0.05                    20           0.06   \n",
+       "11  rehab    15                0.03                    33           0.04   \n",
+       "12  rehab    16                0.02                    50           0.03   \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    1_in_n_delay_5%  \n",
+       "0               NaN  \n",
+       "1               6.0  \n",
+       "2               9.0  \n",
+       "3              12.0  \n",
+       "4              20.0  \n",
+       "5              33.0  \n",
+       "6               NaN  \n",
+       "8               8.0  \n",
+       "9              11.0  \n",
+       "10             17.0  \n",
+       "11             25.0  \n",
+       "12             33.0  "
       ]
      },
      "metadata": {},
@@ -4875,17 +4389,15 @@
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "# These are some adjustments to how table is presented in article...\n",
-    "\n",
     "adj_full_tab_2 = full_tab2.copy()\n",
     "\n",
     "# Drop the result for ASU beds 9 and rehab beds 10 for the scenario\n",
     "adj_full_tab_2.loc[(adj_full_tab_2[\"unit\"] == \"asu\") &\n",
     "                   (adj_full_tab_2[\"beds\"] == 9),\n",
-    "                   \"prob_delay_5\"] = None\n",
+    "                   [\"prob_delay_5%\", \"1_in_n_delay_5%\"]] = None\n",
     "adj_full_tab_2.loc[(adj_full_tab_2[\"unit\"] == \"rehab\") &\n",
     "                   (adj_full_tab_2[\"beds\"] == 10),\n",
-    "                   \"prob_delay_5\"] = None\n",
+    "                   [\"prob_delay_5%\", \"1_in_n_delay_5%\"]] = None\n",
     "\n",
     "# Drop the result for rehab 11 beds\n",
     "adj_full_tab_2 = adj_full_tab_2[\n",
@@ -4895,6 +4407,49 @@
     "display(adj_full_tab_2)\n",
     "adj_full_tab_2.to_csv(os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"delay_s1.csv\"), index=False)"
    ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### Scenario 4\n",
+    "\n",
+    "**No complex-neurological cases.** Complex neurological patients are excluded from the pathway in order to assess their impact on bed requirements."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 14,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "# Set IAT very high, essentially meaning that we have no neuro arrivals\n",
+    "s4_param = Param(\n",
+    "    asu_arrivals=ASUArrivals(neuro = 10_000_000_000),\n",
+    "    rehab_arrivals=RehabArrivals(neuro=10_000_000_000),\n",
+    "    cores=9\n",
+    ")"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 15,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "# Run the model for 150 replications\n",
+    "runner = Runner(param=s4_param)\n",
+    "s4_reps, s4_overall = runner.run_reps()"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### Supplementary table 1\n",
+    "\n",
+    "**Supplementary Table 1.** Likelihood of delay. Current admissions versus No Complex neurological patients."
+   ]
   }
  ],
  "metadata": {
diff --git a/outputs/delay_s1.csv b/outputs/delay_s1.csv
index 9101344..36a74fc 100644
--- a/outputs/delay_s1.csv
+++ b/outputs/delay_s1.csv
@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
-unit,beds,prob_delay_current,prob_delay_5
-asu,9,0.19,
-asu,10,0.14,0.16
-asu,11,0.09,0.11
-asu,12,0.06,0.08
-asu,13,0.04,0.05
-asu,14,0.02,0.03
-rehab,10,0.2,
-rehab,12,0.11,0.13
-rehab,13,0.08,0.09
-rehab,14,0.05,0.06
-rehab,15,0.03,0.04
-rehab,16,0.02,0.03
+unit,beds,prob_delay_current,1_in_n_delay_current,prob_delay_5%,1_in_n_delay_5%
+asu,9,0.19,5,,
+asu,10,0.14,7,0.16,6.0
+asu,11,0.09,11,0.11,9.0
+asu,12,0.06,17,0.08,12.0
+asu,13,0.04,25,0.05,20.0
+asu,14,0.02,50,0.03,33.0
+rehab,10,0.2,5,,
+rehab,12,0.11,9,0.13,8.0
+rehab,13,0.08,12,0.09,11.0
+rehab,14,0.05,20,0.06,17.0
+rehab,15,0.03,33,0.04,25.0
+rehab,16,0.02,50,0.03,33.0

From caf734209072fbebcbb0d5ff91633f0b72d06377 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 9 Apr 2025 09:58:12 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 07/24] feat(analysis): add supp table 1, adjusting
 make_table2_segment -> make_delay_table so it can be used for both - and
 adjusted it so it calculates 1 in n delay from raw prob delay, not rounded

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb                      | 361 ++++++++++++++----
 outputs/{delay_s1.csv => delay_scenario1.csv} |  14 +-
 outputs/delay_scenario4.csv                   |  12 +
 3 files changed, 296 insertions(+), 91 deletions(-)
 rename outputs/{delay_s1.csv => delay_scenario1.csv} (50%)
 create mode 100644 outputs/delay_scenario4.csv

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index 19a038f..153d824 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -3940,55 +3940,72 @@
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "def make_table2_segment(unit, filter_beds):\n",
+    "def make_delay_table(\n",
+    "        scenario, scenario_name, base=base_overall, base_name=\"current\",\n",
+    "        asu_beds=list(range(9,15)), rehab_beds=list(range(10,17))\n",
+    "    ):\n",
     "    \"\"\"\n",
-    "    Make segment of Table 2 for either the acute stroke unit (\"asu\") or\n",
-    "    rehabilitation unit (\"rehab\").\n",
+    "    Create table with the probability of delay and 1 in n patients delayed,\n",
+    "    for the base case and a provided scenario.\n",
     "\n",
     "    Parameters\n",
     "    ----------\n",
-    "    unit: str\n",
-    "        Name of unit to extract results for (\"asu\", \"rehab\").\n",
-    "    filter_beds: list\n",
-    "        List of bed numbers to get results for.\n",
-    "\n",
-    "    Returns\n",
-    "    -------\n",
-    "    full_df: pd.DataFrame\n",
-    "        Results from base case and scenario side-by-side.\n",
+    "    scenario: dict\n",
+    "        Dictionary containing two dataframes: \"asu\" and \"rehab\". These contain\n",
+    "        the overall results from a scenario run of the simulation.\n",
+    "    scenario_name: str\n",
+    "        Name for scenario to use in table labels.\n",
+    "    base: dict\n",
+    "        Dictionary containing two dataframes: \"asu\" and \"rehab\". These contain\n",
+    "        the overall results from the base case run of the simulation.\n",
+    "    base_name: str\n",
+    "        Name for base case to use in table labels.\n",
+    "    asu_beds: list\n",
+    "        List of acute stroke unit (ASU) bed numbers to get results for.\n",
+    "    rehab_beds: list\n",
+    "        List of rehabilitation unit bed numbers to get results for.\n",
     "    \"\"\"\n",
-    "    # Get the overall results for base and scenario 1\n",
-    "    tab2_dict = {\"current\": base_overall[unit],\n",
-    "                 \"5%\": s1_overall[unit]}\n",
+    "    # Create list to store the ASU and rehab dataframes\n",
+    "    tab_full = []\n",
     "\n",
-    "    # Create list to store modified dataframes\n",
-    "    tab2_list = []\n",
+    "    # Loop over ASU and rehab units...\n",
+    "    for unit_name, unit_beds in {\"asu\": asu_beds, \"rehab\": rehab_beds}.items():\n",
     "\n",
-    "    for scenario_name, df in tab2_dict.items():\n",
+    "        # Create list to store base case and scenario dataframes\n",
+    "        tab_segment = []\n",
     "\n",
-    "        # Extract results for specified beds\n",
-    "        df = df[df[\"beds\"].isin(filter_beds)][[\"beds\", \"prob_delay\"]]\n",
+    "        # Loop over base case and scenario...\n",
+    "        for scenario_name, df in {base_name: base[unit_name],\n",
+    "                                  scenario_name: scenario[unit_name]}.items():\n",
     "\n",
-    "        # Round probability of delay to 2 d.p.\n",
-    "        df[\"prob_delay\"] = round(df[\"prob_delay\"], 2)\n",
+    "            # Extract results for specified beds\n",
+    "            df = df[df[\"beds\"].isin(unit_beds)][[\"beds\", \"prob_delay\"]]\n",
     "\n",
-    "        # Add column with calculation of 1 in every n patients delayed\n",
-    "        df[f\"1_in_n_delay_{scenario_name}\"] = (\n",
-    "            round(1 / df[\"prob_delay\"]).astype(int))\n",
+    "            # Add column with calculation of 1 in every n patients delayed\n",
+    "            df[f\"1_in_n_delay_{scenario_name}\"] = (\n",
+    "                round(1 / df[\"prob_delay\"])).astype(int)\n",
     "\n",
-    "        # Rename column to be specific to scenario\n",
-    "        df = df.rename(columns={\"prob_delay\": f\"prob_delay_{scenario_name}\"})\n",
+    "            # Round probability of delay to 2 d.p.\n",
+    "            df[\"prob_delay\"] = round(df[\"prob_delay\"], 2)\n",
     "\n",
-    "        # Save dataframe to list\n",
-    "        tab2_list.append(df)\n",
+    "            # Rename column to be specific to scenario\n",
+    "            df = df.rename(columns={\n",
+    "                \"prob_delay\": f\"prob_delay_{scenario_name}\"})\n",
+    "\n",
+    "            # Save dataframe to list\n",
+    "            tab_segment.append(df)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Combine into single dataframe\n",
+    "        full_df = pd.merge(tab_segment[0], tab_segment[1], on=\"beds\")\n",
     "\n",
-    "    # Combine into single dataframe\n",
-    "    full_df = pd.merge(tab2_list[0], tab2_list[1], on=\"beds\")\n",
+    "        # Add column with unit name\n",
+    "        full_df.insert(0, \"unit\", unit_name)\n",
     "\n",
-    "    # Add column with unit name\n",
-    "    full_df.insert(0, \"unit\", unit)\n",
+    "        # Save dataframe to list\n",
+    "        tab_full.append(full_df)\n",
     "\n",
-    "    return full_df"
+    "    # Combine into a single table\n",
+    "    return pd.concat(tab_full).reset_index(drop=True)"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -4058,16 +4075,16 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>17</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>25</td>\n",
+       "      <td>26</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
        "      <td>20</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4076,7 +4093,7 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>50</td>\n",
+       "      <td>45</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
        "      <td>33</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4112,7 +4129,7 @@
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4123,25 +4140,25 @@
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
        "      <td>20</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>17</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>11</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>33</td>\n",
+       "      <td>31</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>25</td>\n",
+       "      <td>23</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>12</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>50</td>\n",
+       "      <td>52</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>33</td>\n",
+       "      <td>37</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
@@ -4152,31 +4169,31 @@
        "0     asu     9                0.19                     5           0.21   \n",
        "1     asu    10                0.14                     7           0.16   \n",
        "2     asu    11                0.09                    11           0.11   \n",
-       "3     asu    12                0.06                    17           0.08   \n",
-       "4     asu    13                0.04                    25           0.05   \n",
-       "5     asu    14                0.02                    50           0.03   \n",
+       "3     asu    12                0.06                    16           0.08   \n",
+       "4     asu    13                0.04                    26           0.05   \n",
+       "5     asu    14                0.02                    45           0.03   \n",
        "6   rehab    10                0.20                     5           0.23   \n",
        "7   rehab    11                0.15                     7           0.18   \n",
        "8   rehab    12                0.11                     9           0.13   \n",
-       "9   rehab    13                0.08                    12           0.09   \n",
+       "9   rehab    13                0.08                    13           0.09   \n",
        "10  rehab    14                0.05                    20           0.06   \n",
-       "11  rehab    15                0.03                    33           0.04   \n",
-       "12  rehab    16                0.02                    50           0.03   \n",
+       "11  rehab    15                0.03                    31           0.04   \n",
+       "12  rehab    16                0.02                    52           0.03   \n",
        "\n",
        "    1_in_n_delay_5%  \n",
        "0                 5  \n",
        "1                 6  \n",
        "2                 9  \n",
-       "3                12  \n",
+       "3                13  \n",
        "4                20  \n",
        "5                33  \n",
        "6                 4  \n",
        "7                 6  \n",
        "8                 8  \n",
        "9                11  \n",
-       "10               17  \n",
-       "11               25  \n",
-       "12               33  "
+       "10               15  \n",
+       "11               23  \n",
+       "12               37  "
       ]
      },
      "execution_count": 12,
@@ -4185,14 +4202,7 @@
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "# Acute stroke unit: 9 to 14 beds\n",
-    "tab2_asu = make_table2_segment(unit=\"asu\", filter_beds=list(range(9,15)))\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Rehab unit: 10 to 16 beds, excluding 11 (we do this later, so can still see)\n",
-    "tab2_rehab = make_table2_segment(unit=\"rehab\", filter_beds=list(range(10,17)))\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Combine into a single table\n",
-    "full_tab2 = pd.concat([tab2_asu, tab2_rehab]).reset_index(drop=True)\n",
+    "full_tab2 = make_delay_table(scenario=s1_overall, scenario_name=\"5%\")\n",
     "full_tab2"
    ]
   },
@@ -4204,7 +4214,7 @@
     "\n",
     "(hiding / dropping some results)\n",
     "\n",
-    "The 1 in n delay columns are int columns rounded to 1 d.p., but python doesn't allow NaN in an int column, so they display as floats below."
+    "The 1 in n delay columns are **rounded to the nearest whole number**, but python doesn't allow NaN or Inf in an int column, so they provided as floats."
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -4274,16 +4284,16 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>17</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>25</td>\n",
+       "      <td>26</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
        "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4292,7 +4302,7 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>50</td>\n",
+       "      <td>45</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
        "      <td>33.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4319,7 +4329,7 @@
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
        "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4330,25 +4340,25 @@
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
        "      <td>20</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>17.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>11</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>33</td>\n",
+       "      <td>31</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>25.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>12</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>50</td>\n",
+       "      <td>52</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>33.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>37.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
@@ -4359,29 +4369,29 @@
        "0     asu     9                0.19                     5            NaN   \n",
        "1     asu    10                0.14                     7           0.16   \n",
        "2     asu    11                0.09                    11           0.11   \n",
-       "3     asu    12                0.06                    17           0.08   \n",
-       "4     asu    13                0.04                    25           0.05   \n",
-       "5     asu    14                0.02                    50           0.03   \n",
+       "3     asu    12                0.06                    16           0.08   \n",
+       "4     asu    13                0.04                    26           0.05   \n",
+       "5     asu    14                0.02                    45           0.03   \n",
        "6   rehab    10                0.20                     5            NaN   \n",
        "8   rehab    12                0.11                     9           0.13   \n",
-       "9   rehab    13                0.08                    12           0.09   \n",
+       "9   rehab    13                0.08                    13           0.09   \n",
        "10  rehab    14                0.05                    20           0.06   \n",
-       "11  rehab    15                0.03                    33           0.04   \n",
-       "12  rehab    16                0.02                    50           0.03   \n",
+       "11  rehab    15                0.03                    31           0.04   \n",
+       "12  rehab    16                0.02                    52           0.03   \n",
        "\n",
        "    1_in_n_delay_5%  \n",
        "0               NaN  \n",
        "1               6.0  \n",
        "2               9.0  \n",
-       "3              12.0  \n",
+       "3              13.0  \n",
        "4              20.0  \n",
        "5              33.0  \n",
        "6               NaN  \n",
        "8               8.0  \n",
        "9              11.0  \n",
-       "10             17.0  \n",
-       "11             25.0  \n",
-       "12             33.0  "
+       "10             15.0  \n",
+       "11             23.0  \n",
+       "12             37.0  "
       ]
      },
      "metadata": {},
@@ -4405,7 +4415,8 @@
     "\n",
     "# Display and save to csv\n",
     "display(adj_full_tab_2)\n",
-    "adj_full_tab_2.to_csv(os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"delay_s1.csv\"), index=False)"
+    "adj_full_tab_2.to_csv(\n",
+    "    os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"delay_scenario1.csv\"), index=False)"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -4450,6 +4461,188 @@
     "\n",
     "**Supplementary Table 1.** Likelihood of delay. Current admissions versus No Complex neurological patients."
    ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 16,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>unit</th>\n",
+       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay_current</th>\n",
+       "      <th>1_in_n_delay_current</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay_no_complex_neuro</th>\n",
+       "      <th>1_in_n_delay_no_complex_neuro</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>0</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>1</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "      <td>18</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>2</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>31</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>3</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "      <td>26</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>55</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>4</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>45</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
+       "      <td>111</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>5</th>\n",
+       "      <td>asu</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
+       "      <td>79</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
+       "      <td>225</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>6</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>7</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>32</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>8</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>57</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>9</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>31</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
+       "      <td>101</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>10</th>\n",
+       "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>52</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
+       "      <td>212</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  1_in_n_delay_current  \\\n",
+       "0     asu    10                0.14                     7   \n",
+       "1     asu    11                0.09                    11   \n",
+       "2     asu    12                0.06                    16   \n",
+       "3     asu    13                0.04                    26   \n",
+       "4     asu    14                0.02                    45   \n",
+       "5     asu    15                0.01                    79   \n",
+       "6   rehab    12                0.11                     9   \n",
+       "7   rehab    13                0.08                    13   \n",
+       "8   rehab    14                0.05                    20   \n",
+       "9   rehab    15                0.03                    31   \n",
+       "10  rehab    16                0.02                    52   \n",
+       "\n",
+       "    prob_delay_no_complex_neuro  1_in_n_delay_no_complex_neuro  \n",
+       "0                          0.09                             11  \n",
+       "1                          0.06                             18  \n",
+       "2                          0.03                             31  \n",
+       "3                          0.02                             55  \n",
+       "4                          0.01                            111  \n",
+       "5                          0.00                            225  \n",
+       "6                          0.05                             20  \n",
+       "7                          0.03                             32  \n",
+       "8                          0.02                             57  \n",
+       "9                          0.01                            101  \n",
+       "10                         0.00                            212  "
+      ]
+     },
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "display_data"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "# Make table\n",
+    "sup_tab1 = make_delay_table(scenario=s4_overall,\n",
+    "                            scenario_name=\"no_complex_neuro\",\n",
+    "                            asu_beds=list(range(10,16)),\n",
+    "                            rehab_beds=list(range(12,17)))\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Display and save to csv\n",
+    "display(sup_tab1)\n",
+    "sup_tab1.to_csv(os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"delay_scenario4.csv\"), index=False)"
+   ]
   }
  ],
  "metadata": {
diff --git a/outputs/delay_s1.csv b/outputs/delay_scenario1.csv
similarity index 50%
rename from outputs/delay_s1.csv
rename to outputs/delay_scenario1.csv
index 36a74fc..00845d1 100644
--- a/outputs/delay_s1.csv
+++ b/outputs/delay_scenario1.csv
@@ -2,12 +2,12 @@ unit,beds,prob_delay_current,1_in_n_delay_current,prob_delay_5%,1_in_n_delay_5%
 asu,9,0.19,5,,
 asu,10,0.14,7,0.16,6.0
 asu,11,0.09,11,0.11,9.0
-asu,12,0.06,17,0.08,12.0
-asu,13,0.04,25,0.05,20.0
-asu,14,0.02,50,0.03,33.0
+asu,12,0.06,16,0.08,13.0
+asu,13,0.04,26,0.05,20.0
+asu,14,0.02,45,0.03,33.0
 rehab,10,0.2,5,,
 rehab,12,0.11,9,0.13,8.0
-rehab,13,0.08,12,0.09,11.0
-rehab,14,0.05,20,0.06,17.0
-rehab,15,0.03,33,0.04,25.0
-rehab,16,0.02,50,0.03,33.0
+rehab,13,0.08,13,0.09,11.0
+rehab,14,0.05,20,0.06,15.0
+rehab,15,0.03,31,0.04,23.0
+rehab,16,0.02,52,0.03,37.0
diff --git a/outputs/delay_scenario4.csv b/outputs/delay_scenario4.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f1e1154
--- /dev/null
+++ b/outputs/delay_scenario4.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+unit,beds,prob_delay_current,1_in_n_delay_current,prob_delay_no_complex_neuro,1_in_n_delay_no_complex_neuro
+asu,10,0.14,7,0.09,11
+asu,11,0.09,11,0.06,18
+asu,12,0.06,16,0.03,31
+asu,13,0.04,26,0.02,55
+asu,14,0.02,45,0.01,111
+asu,15,0.01,79,0.0,225
+rehab,12,0.11,9,0.05,20
+rehab,13,0.08,13,0.03,32
+rehab,14,0.05,20,0.02,57
+rehab,15,0.03,31,0.01,101
+rehab,16,0.02,52,0.0,212

From 0662f0b3d813c2b0cab1d73f4718e1b7272949a7 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 9 Apr 2025 13:54:03 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 08/24] feat(pooling): attempt at bed pooling (though not sure
 if it's quite right)

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb | 754 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-------
 1 file changed, 620 insertions(+), 134 deletions(-)

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index 153d824..595d5c1 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -15,10 +15,16 @@
     "* Base case\n",
     "    * Run the model\n",
     "    * Figure 1\n",
+    "    * Theory: probability of delay\n",
     "    * Figure 3\n",
-    "* Scenario analysis\n",
+    "* Scenario analysis: altering arrivals\n",
     "    * Scenario 1\n",
-    "    * Table 2"
+    "    * Table 2\n",
+    "    * Scenario 4\n",
+    "    * Supplementary table 1\n",
+    "* Scenario analysis: pooling beds\n",
+    "    * Theory: pooling beds\n",
+    "    * Scenario 2"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -36,6 +42,7 @@
     "import os\n",
     "\n",
     "from IPython.display import display\n",
+    "import numpy as np\n",
     "import pandas as pd\n",
     "import plotly.express as px\n",
     "\n",
@@ -1868,115 +1875,19 @@
    "cell_type": "markdown",
    "metadata": {},
    "source": [
-    "### Figure 3\n",
-    "\n",
-    "**Figure 3**. Simulated trade-off between the probability that a patient is delayed and the no. of acute beds available.\n",
+    "### Theory: probability of delay\n",
     "\n",
     "We can use our frequency and cumulative frequency of occupied beds from the simulation to calculate blocking probability.\n",
     "\n",
-    "Our model output these tables..."
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 6,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/html": [
-       "<div>\n",
-       "<style scoped>\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
-       "        text-align: right;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "</style>\n",
-       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
-       "  <thead>\n",
-       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
-       "      <th></th>\n",
-       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
-       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
-       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </thead>\n",
-       "  <tbody>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>0</th>\n",
-       "      <td>0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>67</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000245</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000245</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>1</th>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>570</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002082</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002327</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.894819</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>2</th>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2142</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.007825</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.010152</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.770781</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>3</th>\n",
-       "      <td>3</td>\n",
-       "      <td>6086</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.022232</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.032384</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.686520</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>4</th>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12600</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.046027</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.078411</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.587002</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </tbody>\n",
-       "</table>\n",
-       "</div>"
-      ],
-      "text/plain": [
-       "   beds   freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "0     0     67  0.000245  0.000245    1.000000\n",
-       "1     1    570  0.002082  0.002327    0.894819\n",
-       "2     2   2142  0.007825  0.010152    0.770781\n",
-       "3     3   6086  0.022232  0.032384    0.686520\n",
-       "4     4  12600  0.046027  0.078411    0.587002"
-      ]
-     },
-     "execution_count": 6,
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "base_overall[\"asu\"].head()"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "source": [
+    "For example:\n",
+    "\n",
+    "| Beds | `pct` | `c_pct` | Probability of delay |\n",
+    "| - | - | - | - |\n",
+    "| 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 |\n",
+    "| 1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |\n",
+    "| 2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.44 |\n",
+    "| 3 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 |\n",
+    "\n",
     "We can interpret...\n",
     "\n",
     "* `pct` as the probability of having exactly x beds occupied.\n",
@@ -1984,31 +1895,31 @@
     "\n",
     "We can then calculate `pct/c_pct`, which is the probability of delay when the system has exactly x beds occupied.\n",
     "\n",
-    "For example:\n",
-    "\n",
-    "| Beds | `pct` | `c_pct` | Probability of delay |\n",
-    "| - | - | - | - |\n",
-    "| 7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 |\n",
-    "| 8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |\n",
-    "| 9 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.44 |\n",
-    "| 10 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 |\n",
-    "\n",
-    "Interpretation for 8 beds:\n",
+    "Interpretation for 1 bed:\n",
     "\n",
-    "* If we **randomly select a day when the occupancy is 8 or fewer beds**, there's a **60%** chance that the occupancy will be **exactly 8 beds (rather than 7 beds)**.\n",
+    "* If we **randomly select a day when the occupancy is 1 or fewer beds**, there's a **60%** chance that the occupancy will be **exactly 1 beds (rather than 0 beds)**.\n",
     "\n",
     "This can then be connected to the probability of delay by thinking about system capacity:\n",
     "\n",
-    "* If we assume that the unit has a total of 8 beds, then when 8 beds are occupied, the unit is at **full capacity**.\n",
-    "* Any new patients arriving when 8 beds are occupied would experience a delay.\n",
-    "* So 0.6 represents the probability that, given we're at or below capacity (7 or 8 beds), we're actually at full capacity (8 beds)\n",
+    "* If we assume that the unit has a total of 1 beds, then when 1 beds are occupied, the unit is at **full capacity**.\n",
+    "* Any new patients arriving when 1 beds are occupied would experience a delay.\n",
+    "* So 0.6 represents the probability that, given we're at or below capacity (0 or 1 beds), we're actually at full capacity (1 beds)\n",
     "\n",
     "In other words, `pct/c_pct` is the probability that a new arrival will experience a delay when the system has exactly x beds occupied, given that the capacity of the system is x beds."
    ]
   },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### Figure 3\n",
+    "\n",
+    "**Figure 3**. Simulated trade-off between the probability that a patient is delayed and the no. of acute beds available."
+   ]
+  },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 7,
+   "execution_count": 6,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -2063,7 +1974,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 8,
+   "execution_count": 7,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -3867,7 +3778,7 @@
    "cell_type": "markdown",
    "metadata": {},
    "source": [
-    "## Scenario analysis\n",
+    "## Scenario analysis: altering arrivals\n",
     "\n",
     "### Scenario 1\n",
     "\n",
@@ -3876,7 +3787,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 9,
+   "execution_count": 8,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -3914,7 +3825,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 10,
+   "execution_count": 9,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -3936,7 +3847,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 11,
+   "execution_count": 10,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -4010,7 +3921,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 12,
+   "execution_count": 11,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -4196,7 +4107,7 @@
        "12               37  "
       ]
      },
-     "execution_count": 12,
+     "execution_count": 11,
      "metadata": {},
      "output_type": "execute_result"
     }
@@ -4219,7 +4130,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 13,
+   "execution_count": 12,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -4430,7 +4341,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 14,
+   "execution_count": 13,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -4444,7 +4355,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 15,
+   "execution_count": 14,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -4464,7 +4375,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 16,
+   "execution_count": 15,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -4643,6 +4554,581 @@
     "display(sup_tab1)\n",
     "sup_tab1.to_csv(os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"delay_scenario4.csv\"), index=False)"
    ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "## Scenario analysis: pooling beds\n",
+    "\n",
+    "### Theory: pooling beds\n",
+    "\n",
+    "#### Reminder: What is probability of delay?\n",
+    "\n",
+    "As mentioned above, we calculate the probability `prob_delay` like so:"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 16,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
+       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
+       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>0</th>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>67</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000245</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000245</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>1</th>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>570</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002082</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002327</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.894819</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>2</th>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2142</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.007825</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.010152</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.770781</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>3</th>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6086</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.022232</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.032384</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.686520</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>4</th>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12600</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.046027</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.078411</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.587002</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "   beds   freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
+       "0     0     67  0.000245  0.000245    1.000000\n",
+       "1     1    570  0.002082  0.002327    0.894819\n",
+       "2     2   2142  0.007825  0.010152    0.770781\n",
+       "3     3   6086  0.022232  0.032384    0.686520\n",
+       "4     4  12600  0.046027  0.078411    0.587002"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 16,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "base_overall[\"asu\"].head()"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "And this has two interpretations:\n",
+    "\n",
+    "* It is the likelihood of already having **at least X number of patient occupying** the unit.\n",
+    "* And therefore, **if X is the capacity, it is the probability of delay** for new patients entering the unit.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "For example, there is:\n",
+    "\n",
+    "* A 100% probability of there being 0 or more people occupying the unit at any given time\n",
+    "* A 100% probability of delay for new patients, if capacity is 0\n",
+    "\n",
+    "And...\n",
+    "\n",
+    "* A 89% probability of there being 1 or more people occupying the unit at any given time\n",
+    "* A 89% probability of delay for new patients, if capacity is 1\n",
+    "\n",
+    "And so on."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "#### Using these to estimate probability of delay with pooled beds\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Let's imagine the following scenario:\n",
+    "\n",
+    "> Scenario: **11 dedicated acute beds, 11 dedicated rehab beds, and 4 pooled beds.**\n",
+    ">\n",
+    "> Acute patients will be delayed if:\n",
+    "> * There are ≥15 acute patients (using all 11 acute beds + all 4 pooled beds)\n",
+    "> * OR there are 11-14 acute patients AND rehab patients are using some of the pooled beds\n",
+    ">\n",
+    "> No delays if 10 or fewer acute patients, as still a bed spare.\n",
+    ">\n",
+    "> Rehab patients will be delayed if:\n",
+    "> * There are ≥15 rehab patients (using all 11 rehab beds + all 4 pooled beds)\n",
+    "> * OR there are 11-14 rehab patients AND acute patients are using some of the pooled beds\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Focusing on the acute patients, `prob_delay` tells us that the probability of having at least 15 patients occupying the unit is 0.012."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 17,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
+       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
+       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>15</th>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3424</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.012508</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.987631</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.012664</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "    beds  freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
+       "15    15  3424  0.012508  0.987631    0.012664"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 17,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "base_overall[\"asu\"][base_overall[\"asu\"][\"beds\"] == 15]"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "We will also then have delays if there are:\n",
+    "\n",
+    "* 11 acute 4 rehab\n",
+    "* 12 acute 3 rehab\n",
+    "* 13 acute 2 rehab\n",
+    "* 14 acute 1 rehab\n",
+    "\n",
+    "To work out these, we multiply the probability of having at least X acute by the probability of having at least Y rehab - for example:"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 18,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
+       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
+       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>11</th>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>22344</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.081622</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.8603</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.094876</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "    beds   freq       pct   c_pct  prob_delay\n",
+       "11    11  22344  0.081622  0.8603    0.094876"
+      ]
+     },
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "display_data"
+    },
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
+       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
+       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>4</th>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5659</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.020672</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.031317</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.660096</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "   beds  freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
+       "4     4  5659  0.020672  0.031317    0.660096"
+      ]
+     },
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "display_data"
+    },
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/plain": [
+       "np.float64(0.06262734094605638)"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 18,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "p_asu_11 = base_overall[\"asu\"][base_overall[\"asu\"][\"beds\"] == 11]\n",
+    "p_rehab_4 = base_overall[\"rehab\"][base_overall[\"rehab\"][\"beds\"] == 4]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "display(p_asu_11)\n",
+    "display(p_rehab_4)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Probability of having at least 11 acute AND at least 4 rehab\n",
+    "p_asu_11[\"prob_delay\"].values[0] * p_rehab_4[\"prob_delay\"].values[0]"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "The overall probability is the sum of these calculations."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### Scenario 2 and 3\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Scenario 2: **Pooling of acute and rehab beds.** The acute and rehab wards are co-located at same site. Beds are pooled and can be used by either acute or rehabilitation patients. Pooling of the total bed stock of 22 is compared to the pooling of an increased bed stock of 26.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Scenario 3: **Partial pooling of acute and rehab beds.** The acute and rehab wards are co-located at same site. A subset of the 26 beds are pooled and can be used by either acute or rehab patients.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "We can calculate probabilities with pooled beds based on our existing probabilities of delay.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Partial pooling example (like scenario 3)...\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Complete pooling example (like scenario 2)...\n",
+    "\n",
+    "> **Example #2**\n",
+    ">\n",
+    "> Scenario: 0 acute, 0 rehab, 22 pooled\n",
+    ">\n",
+    "> Acute patients will be delayed if:\n",
+    "> * Total patients (acute + rehab) > 22 AND acute patients > rehab patients\n",
+    "> * OR total patients > 22 AND acute patients = rehab patients\n",
+    ">\n",
+    "> Rehab patients will be delayed if:\n",
+    "> * Total patients (acute + rehab) > 22 AND rehab patients > acute patients\n",
+    "> * OR total patients > 22 AND acute patients = rehab patients"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 19,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "class PooledDelay:\n",
+    "    def __init__(self, base_results):\n",
+    "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        Parameters\n",
+    "        ----------\n",
+    "        base_results: dict\n",
+    "            Dictionary containing two dataframes: \"asu\" and \"rehab\". These\n",
+    "            contain the overall results from the base run of the simulation.\n",
+    "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        # Extract the ASU and rehab results for probability of delay\n",
+    "        self.asu = base_results[\"asu\"].set_index(\"beds\")[\"prob_delay\"]\n",
+    "        self.rehab = base_results[\"rehab\"].set_index(\"beds\")[\"prob_delay\"]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # To store the bed counts\n",
+    "        self.asu_beds = np.nan\n",
+    "        self.rehab_beds = np.nan\n",
+    "        self.pooled_beds = np.nan\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    def calculate_delay(self, asu_beds, rehab_beds, pooled_beds):\n",
+    "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        Analyse a bed pooling scenario.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        Parameters\n",
+    "        ----------\n",
+    "        asu_beds: int\n",
+    "            Number of dedicated ASU beds (excluding pooled beds).\n",
+    "        rehab_beds: int\n",
+    "            Number of dedicated rehabilitation beds (excluding pooled beds).\n",
+    "        pooled_beds: int\n",
+    "            Number of beds that can be used by either unit.\n",
+    "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        # Get counts of dedicated and pooled beds\n",
+    "        self.asu_beds = asu_beds\n",
+    "        self.rehab_beds = rehab_beds\n",
+    "        self.pooled_beds = pooled_beds\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Only ASU delay, which is ASU + pooled full, with rehab below capacity\n",
+    "        max_beds = self.asu_beds + self.pooled_beds\n",
+    "        self.asu_only = self.asu[max_beds] * (1 - self.rehab[self.rehab_beds])\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Vice versa for rehab\n",
+    "        max_beds = self.rehab_beds + self.pooled_beds\n",
+    "        self.rehab_only = self.rehab[max_beds] * (1 - self.asu[self.asu_beds])\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Find combinations of patients that would cause delays\n",
+    "        self.asu_comb = self.get_delay_combinations(unit=\"asu\")\n",
+    "        self.rehab_comb = self.get_delay_combinations(unit=\"rehab\")\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Convert to probabilities\n",
+    "        self.asu_comb_probs = (\n",
+    "            sum(self.asu[d[\"asu\"]] * self.rehab[d[\"rehab\"]]\n",
+    "                for d in self.asu_comb))\n",
+    "        self.rehab_comb_probs = (\n",
+    "            sum(self.asu[d[\"asu\"]] * self.rehab[d[\"rehab\"]]\n",
+    "                for d in self.rehab_comb))\n",
+    "    \n",
+    "        return {\"asu\": round(self.asu_only + self.asu_comb_probs, 3),\n",
+    "                \"rehab\": round(self.rehab_only + self.rehab_comb_probs, 3)}\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    def get_delay_combinations(self, unit):\n",
+    "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        Generates a list of dictionaries representing combinations of patients\n",
+    "        that would cause delays.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        This function calculates all combinations where the number of patients\n",
+    "        for a specific unit exceeds its dedicated beds but stays within the\n",
+    "        maximum capacity (dedicated + pooled beds).\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        Parameters\n",
+    "        ----------\n",
+    "        unit: str\n",
+    "            Name of unit to investigate (\"asu\", \"rehab\").\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        Returns\n",
+    "        -------\n",
+    "        combinations: list\n",
+    "            List of dictionaries containing the asu and rehab bed counts.\n",
+    "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        # Determine name of other unit, depending on which you are focussing on\n",
+    "        other_unit = \"rehab\" if unit == \"asu\" else \"asu\"\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Get the counts of available beds for focus unit and other unit\n",
+    "        unit_beds = getattr(self, f\"{unit}_beds\")\n",
+    "        other_beds = getattr(self, f\"{other_unit}_beds\")\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Find max beds for that unit\n",
+    "        max_beds = unit_beds + self.pooled_beds\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Get combinations of beds which would cause a delay\n",
+    "        combinations = [{unit: i, other_unit: max_beds - i + other_beds}\n",
+    "                       for i in range(unit_beds, max_beds + 1)][::-1]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        return combinations"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 20,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "name": "stdout",
+     "output_type": "stream",
+     "text": [
+      "asu 0 rehab 0 pooled 22\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.132), 'rehab': np.float64(0.132)}\n",
+      "------------------\n",
+      "asu 0 rehab 0 pooled 26\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.026), 'rehab': np.float64(0.026)}\n",
+      "------------------\n",
+      "asu 14 rehab 12 pooled 0\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.022), 'rehab': np.float64(0.111)}\n",
+      "------------------\n",
+      "asu 11 rehab 11 pooled 4\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.024), 'rehab': np.float64(0.043)}\n",
+      "------------------\n",
+      "asu 11 rehab 10 pooled 5\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.02), 'rehab': np.float64(0.044)}\n",
+      "------------------\n",
+      "asu 10 rehab 10 pooled 6\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.023), 'rehab': np.float64(0.034)}\n",
+      "------------------\n",
+      "asu 10 rehab 9 pooled 7\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.021), 'rehab': np.float64(0.035)}\n",
+      "------------------\n",
+      "asu 9 rehab 9 pooled 8\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.023), 'rehab': np.float64(0.03)}\n",
+      "------------------\n",
+      "asu 9 rehab 8 pooled 9\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.022), 'rehab': np.float64(0.03)}\n",
+      "------------------\n"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "pooled_delay = PooledDelay(base_results=base_overall)\n",
+    "for beds in [(0, 0, 22), (0, 0, 26), (14, 12, 0), (11, 11, 4), (11, 10, 5),\n",
+    "             (10, 10, 6), (10, 9, 7), (9, 9, 8), (9, 8, 9)]:\n",
+    "    print(f\"asu {beds[0]} rehab {beds[1]} pooled {beds[2]}\")\n",
+    "    print(pooled_delay.calculate_delay(\n",
+    "        asu_beds=beds[0], rehab_beds=beds[1], pooled_beds=beds[2]))\n",
+    "    print(\"------------------\")"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "14 12 0 matches my base overall 14 and 12 (which it should as no pooling basically)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "11 11 4 matches my manual calculation below for ASU -"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 21,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/plain": [
+       "0.024341193866000005"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 21,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "(0.012664*(1-0.150691))+(0.012664*0.150691)+(0.022350*0.111069)+(0.038513*0.077523)+(0.061437*0.051057)+(0.094876*0.032383)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "But it doesn't match the article."
+   ]
   }
  ],
  "metadata": {

From d271f650ac7b9bc846aa35d062fec69a07ace23d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 9 Apr 2025 14:07:23 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 09/24] chore(analysis): removing pooling explanations

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb | 529 +++++++++++----------------------------
 1 file changed, 152 insertions(+), 377 deletions(-)

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index 595d5c1..05e561a 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -4559,360 +4559,7 @@
    "cell_type": "markdown",
    "metadata": {},
    "source": [
-    "## Scenario analysis: pooling beds\n",
-    "\n",
-    "### Theory: pooling beds\n",
-    "\n",
-    "#### Reminder: What is probability of delay?\n",
-    "\n",
-    "As mentioned above, we calculate the probability `prob_delay` like so:"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 16,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/html": [
-       "<div>\n",
-       "<style scoped>\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
-       "        text-align: right;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "</style>\n",
-       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
-       "  <thead>\n",
-       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
-       "      <th></th>\n",
-       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
-       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
-       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </thead>\n",
-       "  <tbody>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>0</th>\n",
-       "      <td>0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>67</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000245</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000245</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>1</th>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>570</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002082</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002327</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.894819</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>2</th>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2142</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.007825</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.010152</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.770781</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>3</th>\n",
-       "      <td>3</td>\n",
-       "      <td>6086</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.022232</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.032384</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.686520</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>4</th>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12600</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.046027</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.078411</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.587002</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </tbody>\n",
-       "</table>\n",
-       "</div>"
-      ],
-      "text/plain": [
-       "   beds   freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "0     0     67  0.000245  0.000245    1.000000\n",
-       "1     1    570  0.002082  0.002327    0.894819\n",
-       "2     2   2142  0.007825  0.010152    0.770781\n",
-       "3     3   6086  0.022232  0.032384    0.686520\n",
-       "4     4  12600  0.046027  0.078411    0.587002"
-      ]
-     },
-     "execution_count": 16,
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "base_overall[\"asu\"].head()"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "source": [
-    "And this has two interpretations:\n",
-    "\n",
-    "* It is the likelihood of already having **at least X number of patient occupying** the unit.\n",
-    "* And therefore, **if X is the capacity, it is the probability of delay** for new patients entering the unit.\n",
-    "\n",
-    "For example, there is:\n",
-    "\n",
-    "* A 100% probability of there being 0 or more people occupying the unit at any given time\n",
-    "* A 100% probability of delay for new patients, if capacity is 0\n",
-    "\n",
-    "And...\n",
-    "\n",
-    "* A 89% probability of there being 1 or more people occupying the unit at any given time\n",
-    "* A 89% probability of delay for new patients, if capacity is 1\n",
-    "\n",
-    "And so on."
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "source": [
-    "#### Using these to estimate probability of delay with pooled beds\n",
-    "\n",
-    "Let's imagine the following scenario:\n",
-    "\n",
-    "> Scenario: **11 dedicated acute beds, 11 dedicated rehab beds, and 4 pooled beds.**\n",
-    ">\n",
-    "> Acute patients will be delayed if:\n",
-    "> * There are ≥15 acute patients (using all 11 acute beds + all 4 pooled beds)\n",
-    "> * OR there are 11-14 acute patients AND rehab patients are using some of the pooled beds\n",
-    ">\n",
-    "> No delays if 10 or fewer acute patients, as still a bed spare.\n",
-    ">\n",
-    "> Rehab patients will be delayed if:\n",
-    "> * There are ≥15 rehab patients (using all 11 rehab beds + all 4 pooled beds)\n",
-    "> * OR there are 11-14 rehab patients AND acute patients are using some of the pooled beds\n",
-    "\n",
-    "Focusing on the acute patients, `prob_delay` tells us that the probability of having at least 15 patients occupying the unit is 0.012."
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 17,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/html": [
-       "<div>\n",
-       "<style scoped>\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
-       "        text-align: right;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "</style>\n",
-       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
-       "  <thead>\n",
-       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
-       "      <th></th>\n",
-       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
-       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
-       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </thead>\n",
-       "  <tbody>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>15</th>\n",
-       "      <td>15</td>\n",
-       "      <td>3424</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.012508</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.987631</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.012664</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </tbody>\n",
-       "</table>\n",
-       "</div>"
-      ],
-      "text/plain": [
-       "    beds  freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "15    15  3424  0.012508  0.987631    0.012664"
-      ]
-     },
-     "execution_count": 17,
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "base_overall[\"asu\"][base_overall[\"asu\"][\"beds\"] == 15]"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "source": [
-    "We will also then have delays if there are:\n",
-    "\n",
-    "* 11 acute 4 rehab\n",
-    "* 12 acute 3 rehab\n",
-    "* 13 acute 2 rehab\n",
-    "* 14 acute 1 rehab\n",
-    "\n",
-    "To work out these, we multiply the probability of having at least X acute by the probability of having at least Y rehab - for example:"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 18,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/html": [
-       "<div>\n",
-       "<style scoped>\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
-       "        text-align: right;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "</style>\n",
-       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
-       "  <thead>\n",
-       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
-       "      <th></th>\n",
-       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
-       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
-       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </thead>\n",
-       "  <tbody>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>11</th>\n",
-       "      <td>11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>22344</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.081622</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.8603</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.094876</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </tbody>\n",
-       "</table>\n",
-       "</div>"
-      ],
-      "text/plain": [
-       "    beds   freq       pct   c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "11    11  22344  0.081622  0.8603    0.094876"
-      ]
-     },
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "display_data"
-    },
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/html": [
-       "<div>\n",
-       "<style scoped>\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
-       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "\n",
-       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
-       "        text-align: right;\n",
-       "    }\n",
-       "</style>\n",
-       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
-       "  <thead>\n",
-       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
-       "      <th></th>\n",
-       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
-       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
-       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
-       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </thead>\n",
-       "  <tbody>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>4</th>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5659</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.020672</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.031317</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.660096</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </tbody>\n",
-       "</table>\n",
-       "</div>"
-      ],
-      "text/plain": [
-       "   beds  freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "4     4  5659  0.020672  0.031317    0.660096"
-      ]
-     },
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "display_data"
-    },
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/plain": [
-       "np.float64(0.06262734094605638)"
-      ]
-     },
-     "execution_count": 18,
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "p_asu_11 = base_overall[\"asu\"][base_overall[\"asu\"][\"beds\"] == 11]\n",
-    "p_rehab_4 = base_overall[\"rehab\"][base_overall[\"rehab\"][\"beds\"] == 4]\n",
-    "\n",
-    "display(p_asu_11)\n",
-    "display(p_rehab_4)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Probability of having at least 11 acute AND at least 4 rehab\n",
-    "p_asu_11[\"prob_delay\"].values[0] * p_rehab_4[\"prob_delay\"].values[0]"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "source": [
-    "The overall probability is the sum of these calculations."
+    "## Scenario analysis: pooling beds"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -4923,30 +4570,12 @@
     "\n",
     "Scenario 2: **Pooling of acute and rehab beds.** The acute and rehab wards are co-located at same site. Beds are pooled and can be used by either acute or rehabilitation patients. Pooling of the total bed stock of 22 is compared to the pooling of an increased bed stock of 26.\n",
     "\n",
-    "Scenario 3: **Partial pooling of acute and rehab beds.** The acute and rehab wards are co-located at same site. A subset of the 26 beds are pooled and can be used by either acute or rehab patients.\n",
-    "\n",
-    "We can calculate probabilities with pooled beds based on our existing probabilities of delay.\n",
-    "\n",
-    "Partial pooling example (like scenario 3)...\n",
-    "\n",
-    "Complete pooling example (like scenario 2)...\n",
-    "\n",
-    "> **Example #2**\n",
-    ">\n",
-    "> Scenario: 0 acute, 0 rehab, 22 pooled\n",
-    ">\n",
-    "> Acute patients will be delayed if:\n",
-    "> * Total patients (acute + rehab) > 22 AND acute patients > rehab patients\n",
-    "> * OR total patients > 22 AND acute patients = rehab patients\n",
-    ">\n",
-    "> Rehab patients will be delayed if:\n",
-    "> * Total patients (acute + rehab) > 22 AND rehab patients > acute patients\n",
-    "> * OR total patients > 22 AND acute patients = rehab patients"
+    "Scenario 3: **Partial pooling of acute and rehab beds.** The acute and rehab wards are co-located at same site. A subset of the 26 beds are pooled and can be used by either acute or rehab patients."
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 19,
+   "execution_count": 16,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -5045,9 +4674,57 @@
     "        return combinations"
    ]
   },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "Can't check with data from article as don't have enough of it."
+   ]
+  },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 20,
+   "execution_count": 17,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "name": "stdout",
+     "output_type": "stream",
+     "text": [
+      "fail\n",
+      "fail\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.02), 'rehab': np.float64(0.11)}\n",
+      "asu 14 rehab 12 pooled 0\n",
+      "fail\n",
+      "fail\n",
+      "fail\n",
+      "fail\n",
+      "fail\n",
+      "fail\n"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "pooled_delay = PooledDelay(base_results=base_overall)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Replace with data from article\n",
+    "pooled_delay.asu = pd.Series(\n",
+    "    data=[0.19, 0.14, 0.09, 0.06, 0.04, 0.02], index=[9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14])\n",
+    "pooled_delay.rehab = pd.Series(\n",
+    "    data=[0.20, 0.11, 0.08, 0.05, 0.03, 0.02], index=[10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16])\n",
+    "\n",
+    "for beds in [(0, 0, 22), (0, 0, 26), (14, 12, 0), (11, 11, 4), (11, 10, 5),\n",
+    "             (10, 10, 6), (10, 9, 7), (9, 9, 8), (9, 8, 9)]:\n",
+    "    try:\n",
+    "        print(pooled_delay.calculate_delay(\n",
+    "        asu_beds=beds[0], rehab_beds=beds[1], pooled_beds=beds[2]))\n",
+    "        print(f\"asu {beds[0]} rehab {beds[1]} pooled {beds[2]}\")\n",
+    "    except:\n",
+    "        print(\"fail\")"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 18,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -5105,7 +4782,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 21,
+   "execution_count": 19,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -5114,7 +4791,7 @@
        "0.024341193866000005"
       ]
      },
-     "execution_count": 21,
+     "execution_count": 19,
      "metadata": {},
      "output_type": "execute_result"
     }
@@ -5129,6 +4806,104 @@
    "source": [
     "But it doesn't match the article."
    ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 20,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/plain": [
+       "beds\n",
+       "0     1.000000\n",
+       "1     0.894819\n",
+       "2     0.770781\n",
+       "3     0.686520\n",
+       "4     0.587002\n",
+       "5     0.500791\n",
+       "6     0.413733\n",
+       "7     0.334108\n",
+       "8     0.256869\n",
+       "9     0.193202\n",
+       "10    0.138199\n",
+       "11    0.094876\n",
+       "12    0.061437\n",
+       "13    0.038513\n",
+       "14    0.022350\n",
+       "15    0.012664\n",
+       "16    0.006438\n",
+       "17    0.003322\n",
+       "18    0.001547\n",
+       "19    0.000643\n",
+       "20    0.000259\n",
+       "21    0.000132\n",
+       "22    0.000047\n",
+       "23    0.000015\n",
+       "24    0.000007\n",
+       "25    0.000004\n",
+       "26    0.000000\n",
+       "27    0.000004\n",
+       "Name: prob_delay, dtype: float64"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 20,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "pooled_delay.asu"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 21,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/plain": [
+       "beds\n",
+       "0     1.000000\n",
+       "1     0.864662\n",
+       "2     0.814246\n",
+       "3     0.754290\n",
+       "4     0.660096\n",
+       "5     0.574731\n",
+       "6     0.488960\n",
+       "7     0.403547\n",
+       "8     0.331217\n",
+       "9     0.260503\n",
+       "10    0.202678\n",
+       "11    0.150691\n",
+       "12    0.111069\n",
+       "13    0.077523\n",
+       "14    0.051057\n",
+       "15    0.032383\n",
+       "16    0.019416\n",
+       "17    0.011187\n",
+       "18    0.006143\n",
+       "19    0.003121\n",
+       "20    0.001372\n",
+       "21    0.000680\n",
+       "22    0.000362\n",
+       "23    0.000179\n",
+       "24    0.000062\n",
+       "25    0.000018\n",
+       "26    0.000018\n",
+       "27    0.000004\n",
+       "Name: prob_delay, dtype: float64"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 21,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "pooled_delay.rehab"
+   ]
   }
  ],
  "metadata": {

From 997f32de7b9a8470f567957ded53e0b7961a74c6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Fri, 11 Apr 2025 09:12:39 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 10/24] fix(analysis): use frequencies instead of prob_delay
 for the bed pooling scenarios, and actually follows the provided  formula in
 the appendix! (I had done something weird/different/not right)

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb | 748 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++----------
 1 file changed, 556 insertions(+), 192 deletions(-)

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index 05e561a..35914e4 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -4559,23 +4559,359 @@
    "cell_type": "markdown",
    "metadata": {},
    "source": [
-    "## Scenario analysis: pooling beds"
+    "## Scenario analysis: pooling beds\n",
+    "\n",
+    "### Scenario 2\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Scenario 2: **Pooling of acute and rehab beds.** The acute and rehab wards are co-located at same site. Beds are pooled and can be used by either acute or rehabilitation patients. Pooling of the total bed stock of 22 is compared to the pooling of an increased bed stock of 26."
    ]
   },
   {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 16,
    "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "### Scenario 2 and 3\n",
+    "pooled_freq = base_overall[\"asu\"][\"freq\"] + base_overall[\"rehab\"][\"freq\"]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "df = pd.DataFrame(pooled_freq)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Add column with frequencies converted to proportions\n",
+    "df[\"pct\"] = df[\"freq\"] / df[\"freq\"].sum()\n",
     "\n",
-    "Scenario 2: **Pooling of acute and rehab beds.** The acute and rehab wards are co-located at same site. Beds are pooled and can be used by either acute or rehabilitation patients. Pooling of the total bed stock of 22 is compared to the pooling of an increased bed stock of 26.\n",
+    "# Add column with the cumulative percentage\n",
+    "df[\"c_pct\"] = df[\"pct\"].cumsum()\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Calculate the probability of delay\n",
+    "df[\"prob_delay\"] = df[\"pct\"] / df[\"c_pct\"]"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 17,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>freq</th>\n",
+       "      <th>pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
+       "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>0</th>\n",
+       "      <td>85</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000155</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000155</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>1</th>\n",
+       "      <td>685</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001251</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001406</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.889610</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>2</th>\n",
+       "      <td>2725</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.004977</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.006384</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.779685</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>3</th>\n",
+       "      <td>8284</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.015131</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.021514</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.703286</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>4</th>\n",
+       "      <td>18259</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.033350</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.054864</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.607863</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>5</th>\n",
+       "      <td>33119</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.060491</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.115355</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.524392</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>6</th>\n",
+       "      <td>49632</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.090652</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.206007</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.440043</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>7</th>\n",
+       "      <td>63488</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.115960</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.321967</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.360160</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>8</th>\n",
+       "      <td>70825</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.129361</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.451328</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.286623</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>9</th>\n",
+       "      <td>70328</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.128453</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.579781</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.221554</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>10</th>\n",
+       "      <td>63452</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.115894</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.695675</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.166592</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>11</th>\n",
+       "      <td>52102</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.095163</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.790838</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.120332</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>12</th>\n",
+       "      <td>40090</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.073224</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.864062</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.084744</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>13</th>\n",
+       "      <td>28720</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.052457</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.916519</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.057235</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>14</th>\n",
+       "      <td>18923</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.034563</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.951081</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.036340</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>15</th>\n",
+       "      <td>11917</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.021766</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.972847</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.022374</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>16</th>\n",
+       "      <td>6945</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.012685</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.985532</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.012871</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>17</th>\n",
+       "      <td>3933</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.007184</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.992716</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.007236</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>18</th>\n",
+       "      <td>2095</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.003826</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.996542</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.003840</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>19</th>\n",
+       "      <td>1028</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001878</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.998420</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001881</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>20</th>\n",
+       "      <td>446</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000815</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999235</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000815</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>21</th>\n",
+       "      <td>222</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000405</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999640</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000406</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>22</th>\n",
+       "      <td>112</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000205</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999845</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000205</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>23</th>\n",
+       "      <td>53</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000097</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999942</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000097</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>24</th>\n",
+       "      <td>19</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000035</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999976</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000035</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>25</th>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000011</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999987</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000011</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>26</th>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000009</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999996</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000009</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>27</th>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "     freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
+       "0      85  0.000155  0.000155    1.000000\n",
+       "1     685  0.001251  0.001406    0.889610\n",
+       "2    2725  0.004977  0.006384    0.779685\n",
+       "3    8284  0.015131  0.021514    0.703286\n",
+       "4   18259  0.033350  0.054864    0.607863\n",
+       "5   33119  0.060491  0.115355    0.524392\n",
+       "6   49632  0.090652  0.206007    0.440043\n",
+       "7   63488  0.115960  0.321967    0.360160\n",
+       "8   70825  0.129361  0.451328    0.286623\n",
+       "9   70328  0.128453  0.579781    0.221554\n",
+       "10  63452  0.115894  0.695675    0.166592\n",
+       "11  52102  0.095163  0.790838    0.120332\n",
+       "12  40090  0.073224  0.864062    0.084744\n",
+       "13  28720  0.052457  0.916519    0.057235\n",
+       "14  18923  0.034563  0.951081    0.036340\n",
+       "15  11917  0.021766  0.972847    0.022374\n",
+       "16   6945  0.012685  0.985532    0.012871\n",
+       "17   3933  0.007184  0.992716    0.007236\n",
+       "18   2095  0.003826  0.996542    0.003840\n",
+       "19   1028  0.001878  0.998420    0.001881\n",
+       "20    446  0.000815  0.999235    0.000815\n",
+       "21    222  0.000405  0.999640    0.000406\n",
+       "22    112  0.000205  0.999845    0.000205\n",
+       "23     53  0.000097  0.999942    0.000097\n",
+       "24     19  0.000035  0.999976    0.000035\n",
+       "25      6  0.000011  0.999987    0.000011\n",
+       "26      5  0.000009  0.999996    0.000009\n",
+       "27      2  0.000004  1.000000    0.000004"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 17,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "df"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 18,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/plain": [
+       "np.float64(0.0002045979741147027)"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 18,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "df.loc[22][\"prob_delay\"]"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 19,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/plain": [
+       "np.float64(9.132453451884755e-06)"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 19,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "df.loc[26][\"prob_delay\"]"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### Scenario 3\n",
     "\n",
     "Scenario 3: **Partial pooling of acute and rehab beds.** The acute and rehab wards are co-located at same site. A subset of the 26 beds are pooled and can be used by either acute or rehab patients."
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 16,
+   "execution_count": 20,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -4588,55 +4924,85 @@
     "            Dictionary containing two dataframes: \"asu\" and \"rehab\". These\n",
     "            contain the overall results from the base run of the simulation.\n",
     "        \"\"\"\n",
-    "        # Extract the ASU and rehab results for probability of delay\n",
-    "        self.asu = base_results[\"asu\"].set_index(\"beds\")[\"prob_delay\"]\n",
-    "        self.rehab = base_results[\"rehab\"].set_index(\"beds\")[\"prob_delay\"]\n",
+    "        # Extract the ASU and rehab frequencies\n",
+    "        self.asu = base_results[\"asu\"].set_index(\"beds\")[\"freq\"]\n",
+    "        self.rehab = base_results[\"rehab\"].set_index(\"beds\")[\"freq\"]\n",
     "\n",
     "        # To store the bed counts\n",
     "        self.asu_beds = np.nan\n",
     "        self.rehab_beds = np.nan\n",
     "        self.pooled_beds = np.nan\n",
     "\n",
-    "    def calculate_delay(self, asu_beds, rehab_beds, pooled_beds):\n",
+    "    def prob_occupancy(self, occ_freq, threshold, comparison):\n",
     "        \"\"\"\n",
-    "        Analyse a bed pooling scenario.\n",
+    "        Calculate the probability of an occupancy based on the specified\n",
+    "        comparison with a threshold value, using observed frequencies of\n",
+    "        different occupancies.\n",
     "\n",
     "        Parameters\n",
     "        ----------\n",
-    "        asu_beds: int\n",
-    "            Number of dedicated ASU beds (excluding pooled beds).\n",
-    "        rehab_beds: int\n",
-    "            Number of dedicated rehabilitation beds (excluding pooled beds).\n",
-    "        pooled_beds: int\n",
-    "            Number of beds that can be used by either unit.\n",
+    "        occ_freq : pd.Series\n",
+    "            Frequencies of each number of beds, with the index representing the\n",
+    "            occupancy.\n",
+    "        min_occ : int\n",
+    "            The minimum number of beds for which we want to check probability.\n",
+    "        threshold : int\n",
+    "            The threshold number of beds for comparison.\n",
+    "        comparison : str\n",
+    "            The type of comparison to perform. Options are: \"ge\" (greater than\n",
+    "            or equal to, >=), \"eq\" (equal to, =), or \"lt\" (less than, <).\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        Returns\n",
+    "        -------\n",
+    "        float\n",
+    "            The probability of an occupancy greater than or equal to min_occ.\n",
     "        \"\"\"\n",
-    "        # Get counts of dedicated and pooled beds\n",
-    "        self.asu_beds = asu_beds\n",
-    "        self.rehab_beds = rehab_beds\n",
-    "        self.pooled_beds = pooled_beds\n",
+    "        # Calculate total frequency\n",
+    "        total_freq = occ_freq.sum()\n",
     "\n",
-    "        # Only ASU delay, which is ASU + pooled full, with rehab below capacity\n",
-    "        max_beds = self.asu_beds + self.pooled_beds\n",
-    "        self.asu_only = self.asu[max_beds] * (1 - self.rehab[self.rehab_beds])\n",
+    "        # Calculate the frequency based on the comparison type\n",
+    "        if comparison == \"ge\":\n",
+    "            # Greater than or equal to\n",
+    "            filtered_freq = occ_freq[occ_freq.index >= threshold].sum()\n",
+    "        elif comparison == \"eq\":\n",
+    "            # Equal to\n",
+    "            filtered_freq = occ_freq[occ_freq.index == threshold].sum()\n",
+    "        elif comparison == \"lt\":\n",
+    "            # Less than\n",
+    "            filtered_freq = occ_freq[occ_freq.index < threshold].sum()\n",
     "\n",
-    "        # Vice versa for rehab\n",
-    "        max_beds = self.rehab_beds + self.pooled_beds\n",
-    "        self.rehab_only = self.rehab[max_beds] * (1 - self.asu[self.asu_beds])\n",
+    "        # Calculate and return the probability\n",
+    "        return filtered_freq / total_freq\n",
     "\n",
-    "        # Find combinations of patients that would cause delays\n",
-    "        self.asu_comb = self.get_delay_combinations(unit=\"asu\")\n",
-    "        self.rehab_comb = self.get_delay_combinations(unit=\"rehab\")\n",
+    "    def calculate_only_unit_overflow(self, unit):\n",
+    "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        Calculate the probability of only the specified unit having delays.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        Parameters\n",
+    "        ----------\n",
+    "        unit: str\n",
+    "            Name of unit to investigate (\"asu\", \"rehab\").\n",
+    "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        # Determine name of other unit, depending on which you are focussing on\n",
+    "        other_unit = \"rehab\" if unit == \"asu\" else \"asu\"\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Get the counts of available beds for focus unit and other unit\n",
+    "        unit_beds = getattr(self, f\"{unit}_beds\")\n",
+    "        other_beds = getattr(self, f\"{other_unit}_beds\")\n",
     "\n",
-    "        # Convert to probabilities\n",
-    "        self.asu_comb_probs = (\n",
-    "            sum(self.asu[d[\"asu\"]] * self.rehab[d[\"rehab\"]]\n",
-    "                for d in self.asu_comb))\n",
-    "        self.rehab_comb_probs = (\n",
-    "            sum(self.asu[d[\"asu\"]] * self.rehab[d[\"rehab\"]]\n",
-    "                for d in self.rehab_comb))\n",
-    "    \n",
-    "        return {\"asu\": round(self.asu_only + self.asu_comb_probs, 3),\n",
-    "                \"rehab\": round(self.rehab_only + self.rehab_comb_probs, 3)}\n",
+    "        # Only that unit will have delays if they >= dedicated + pooled,\n",
+    "        # whilst other unit < dedicated\n",
+    "        p_unit = self.prob_occupancy(\n",
+    "            occ_freq=getattr(self, unit),\n",
+    "            threshold=unit_beds+self.pooled_beds,\n",
+    "            comparison=\"ge\"\n",
+    "        )\n",
+    "        p_other = self.prob_occupancy(\n",
+    "            occ_freq=getattr(self, other_unit),\n",
+    "            threshold=other_beds,\n",
+    "            comparison=\"lt\"\n",
+    "        )\n",
+    "        return p_unit*p_other\n",
     "\n",
     "    def get_delay_combinations(self, unit):\n",
     "        \"\"\"\n",
@@ -4671,99 +5037,202 @@
     "        combinations = [{unit: i, other_unit: max_beds - i + other_beds}\n",
     "                       for i in range(unit_beds, max_beds + 1)][::-1]\n",
     "\n",
-    "        return combinations"
+    "        return combinations\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    def calculate_combination_probability(self, combination):\n",
+    "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        Calculate the probability of a set of combinations occurring.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        Parameters\n",
+    "        ----------\n",
+    "        combination: dict\n",
+    "            Dictionary with keys \"asu\" and \"rehab\" specifying thresholds.\n",
+    "            This must be that output from get_delay_combinations(), which\n",
+    "            outputs them in descending order for the unit capacity, which is\n",
+    "            important, as the first we check >=, and others ==.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        Returns\n",
+    "        -------\n",
+    "        float\n",
+    "            Probability of this combination occurring.\n",
+    "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        # List to store results\n",
+    "        probabilities = []\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Use a counter to loop through the combinations...\n",
+    "        for i, combo in enumerate(combination):\n",
+    "\n",
+    "            # Extract the primary unit and other unit's name and thresholds\n",
+    "            unit_name, other_name = combo.keys()\n",
+    "            unit_threshold, other_threshold = combo.values()\n",
+    "\n",
+    "            # If it's the first combination, then we check unit >= threshold\n",
+    "            if i == 0:\n",
+    "                p_unit = self.prob_occupancy(\n",
+    "                    occ_freq=getattr(self, unit_name),\n",
+    "                    threshold=unit_threshold,\n",
+    "                    comparison=\"ge\")\n",
+    "            # For all other items, we check unit == threshold\n",
+    "            else:\n",
+    "                p_unit = self.prob_occupancy(\n",
+    "                    occ_freq=getattr(self, unit_name),\n",
+    "                    threshold=unit_threshold,\n",
+    "                    comparison=\"eq\")\n",
+    "\n",
+    "            # The other unit will always be checking >= threshold\n",
+    "            p_other = self.prob_occupancy(\n",
+    "                occ_freq=getattr(self, other_name),\n",
+    "                threshold=other_threshold,\n",
+    "                comparison=\"ge\")\n",
+    "\n",
+    "            # Multiply probabilities and add to list\n",
+    "            probabilities.append(p_unit*p_other)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Return sum of list\n",
+    "        return sum(probabilities)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    def calculate_delay(self, asu_beds, rehab_beds, pooled_beds):\n",
+    "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        Analyse a bed pooling scenario.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        Parameters\n",
+    "        ----------\n",
+    "        asu_beds: int\n",
+    "            Number of dedicated ASU beds (excluding pooled beds).\n",
+    "        rehab_beds: int\n",
+    "            Number of dedicated rehabilitation beds (excluding pooled beds).\n",
+    "        pooled_beds: int\n",
+    "            Number of beds that can be used by either unit.\n",
+    "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        # Get counts of dedicated and pooled beds\n",
+    "        self.asu_beds = asu_beds\n",
+    "        self.rehab_beds = rehab_beds\n",
+    "        self.pooled_beds = pooled_beds\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Get probability of only the ASU, or only rehab, having delays\n",
+    "        p_asu_only = self.calculate_only_unit_overflow(unit=\"asu\")\n",
+    "        print(f\"p_asu_only {p_asu_only}\")\n",
+    "        p_rehab_only = self.calculate_only_unit_overflow(unit=\"rehab\")\n",
+    "        print(f\"p_rehab_only {p_rehab_only}\")\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Find combinations of patients that would cause delays\n",
+    "        asu_comb = self.get_delay_combinations(unit=\"asu\")\n",
+    "        print(f\"asu combinations: {asu_comb}\")\n",
+    "        rehab_comb = self.get_delay_combinations(unit=\"rehab\")\n",
+    "        print(f\"rehab combinations: {rehab_comb}\")\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Convert those to probabilities\n",
+    "        p_asu_comb = self.calculate_combination_probability(asu_comb)\n",
+    "        p_rehab_comb = self.calculate_combination_probability(rehab_comb)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Combine the only + combination probabilities for each unit\n",
+    "        return {\"asu\": p_asu_only + p_asu_comb,\n",
+    "                \"rehab\": p_rehab_only + p_rehab_comb}"
    ]
   },
   {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 21,
    "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "Can't check with data from article as don't have enough of it."
+    "pooled_delay = PooledDelay(base_results=base_overall)"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 17,
+   "execution_count": 22,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
      "name": "stdout",
      "output_type": "stream",
      "text": [
-      "fail\n",
-      "fail\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.02), 'rehab': np.float64(0.11)}\n",
-      "asu 14 rehab 12 pooled 0\n",
-      "fail\n",
-      "fail\n",
-      "fail\n",
-      "fail\n",
-      "fail\n",
-      "fail\n"
+      "p_asu_only 0.03366690305206313\n",
+      "p_rehab_only 0.10348735694418382\n",
+      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}]\n",
+      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}]\n"
      ]
+    },
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/plain": [
+       "{'asu': np.float64(0.060365052325014074),\n",
+       " 'rehab': np.float64(0.13018550621713476)}"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 22,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "pooled_delay = PooledDelay(base_results=base_overall)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Replace with data from article\n",
-    "pooled_delay.asu = pd.Series(\n",
-    "    data=[0.19, 0.14, 0.09, 0.06, 0.04, 0.02], index=[9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14])\n",
-    "pooled_delay.rehab = pd.Series(\n",
-    "    data=[0.20, 0.11, 0.08, 0.05, 0.03, 0.02], index=[10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16])\n",
-    "\n",
-    "for beds in [(0, 0, 22), (0, 0, 26), (14, 12, 0), (11, 11, 4), (11, 10, 5),\n",
-    "             (10, 10, 6), (10, 9, 7), (9, 9, 8), (9, 8, 9)]:\n",
-    "    try:\n",
-    "        print(pooled_delay.calculate_delay(\n",
-    "        asu_beds=beds[0], rehab_beds=beds[1], pooled_beds=beds[2]))\n",
-    "        print(f\"asu {beds[0]} rehab {beds[1]} pooled {beds[2]}\")\n",
-    "    except:\n",
-    "        print(\"fail\")"
+    "pooled_delay.calculate_delay(asu_beds=12, rehab_beds=12, pooled_beds=2)"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 18,
+   "execution_count": 23,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
      "name": "stdout",
      "output_type": "stream",
      "text": [
-      "asu 0 rehab 0 pooled 22\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.132), 'rehab': np.float64(0.132)}\n",
-      "------------------\n",
-      "asu 0 rehab 0 pooled 26\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.026), 'rehab': np.float64(0.026)}\n",
-      "------------------\n",
       "asu 14 rehab 12 pooled 0\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.022), 'rehab': np.float64(0.111)}\n",
+      "p_asu_only 0.03366690305206313\n",
+      "p_rehab_only 0.26561941446758824\n",
+      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}]\n",
+      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}]\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.046670319634703195), 'rehab': np.float64(0.2786228310502283)}\n",
       "------------------\n",
       "asu 11 rehab 11 pooled 4\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.024), 'rehab': np.float64(0.043)}\n",
+      "p_asu_only 0.01524126873084381\n",
+      "p_rehab_only 0.056812888458539226\n",
+      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 15, 'rehab': 11}, {'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}, {'asu': 11, 'rehab': 15}]\n",
+      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 15, 'asu': 11}, {'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}, {'rehab': 11, 'asu': 15}]\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.05059883634119389), 'rehab': np.float64(0.0921704560688893)}\n",
       "------------------\n",
       "asu 11 rehab 10 pooled 5\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.02), 'rehab': np.float64(0.044)}\n",
+      "p_asu_only 0.006042192428014429\n",
+      "p_rehab_only 0.056812888458539226\n",
+      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 16, 'rehab': 10}, {'asu': 15, 'rehab': 11}, {'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}, {'asu': 11, 'rehab': 15}]\n",
+      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 15, 'asu': 11}, {'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}, {'rehab': 11, 'asu': 15}, {'rehab': 10, 'asu': 16}]\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.042935678612205756), 'rehab': np.float64(0.09370637464273054)}\n",
       "------------------\n",
       "asu 10 rehab 10 pooled 6\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.023), 'rehab': np.float64(0.034)}\n",
+      "p_asu_only 0.006042192428014429\n",
+      "p_rehab_only 0.028141824165467778\n",
+      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 16, 'rehab': 10}, {'asu': 15, 'rehab': 11}, {'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}, {'asu': 11, 'rehab': 15}, {'asu': 10, 'rehab': 16}]\n",
+      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 16, 'asu': 10}, {'rehab': 15, 'asu': 11}, {'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}, {'rehab': 11, 'asu': 15}, {'rehab': 10, 'asu': 16}]\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.047448536242363594), 'rehab': np.float64(0.06954816797981694)}\n",
       "------------------\n",
       "asu 10 rehab 9 pooled 7\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.021), 'rehab': np.float64(0.035)}\n",
+      "p_asu_only 0.0021562354079356144\n",
+      "p_rehab_only 0.028141824165467778\n",
+      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 17, 'rehab': 9}, {'asu': 16, 'rehab': 10}, {'asu': 15, 'rehab': 11}, {'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}, {'asu': 11, 'rehab': 15}, {'asu': 10, 'rehab': 16}]\n",
+      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 16, 'asu': 10}, {'rehab': 15, 'asu': 11}, {'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}, {'rehab': 11, 'asu': 15}, {'rehab': 10, 'asu': 16}, {'rehab': 9, 'asu': 17}]\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.044322156698984594), 'rehab': np.float64(0.07030774545651676)}\n",
       "------------------\n",
       "asu 9 rehab 9 pooled 8\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.023), 'rehab': np.float64(0.03)}\n",
+      "p_asu_only 0.0021562354079356144\n",
+      "p_rehab_only 0.012434220724338524\n",
+      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 17, 'rehab': 9}, {'asu': 16, 'rehab': 10}, {'asu': 15, 'rehab': 11}, {'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}, {'asu': 11, 'rehab': 15}, {'asu': 10, 'rehab': 16}, {'asu': 9, 'rehab': 17}]\n",
+      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 17, 'asu': 9}, {'rehab': 16, 'asu': 10}, {'rehab': 15, 'asu': 11}, {'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}, {'rehab': 11, 'asu': 15}, {'rehab': 10, 'asu': 16}, {'rehab': 9, 'asu': 17}]\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.047299752048539444), 'rehab': np.float64(0.05757773736494235)}\n",
       "------------------\n",
       "asu 9 rehab 8 pooled 9\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.022), 'rehab': np.float64(0.03)}\n",
+      "p_asu_only 0.0006415995930026479\n",
+      "p_rehab_only 0.012434220724338524\n",
+      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 18, 'rehab': 8}, {'asu': 17, 'rehab': 9}, {'asu': 16, 'rehab': 10}, {'asu': 15, 'rehab': 11}, {'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}, {'asu': 11, 'rehab': 15}, {'asu': 10, 'rehab': 16}, {'asu': 9, 'rehab': 17}]\n",
+      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 17, 'asu': 9}, {'rehab': 16, 'asu': 10}, {'rehab': 15, 'asu': 11}, {'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}, {'rehab': 11, 'asu': 15}, {'rehab': 10, 'asu': 16}, {'rehab': 9, 'asu': 17}, {'rehab': 8, 'asu': 18}]\n",
+      "{'asu': np.float64(0.046102869848418514), 'rehab': np.float64(0.05789549097975438)}\n",
       "------------------\n"
      ]
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "pooled_delay = PooledDelay(base_results=base_overall)\n",
-    "for beds in [(0, 0, 22), (0, 0, 26), (14, 12, 0), (11, 11, 4), (11, 10, 5),\n",
+    "for beds in [(14, 12, 0), (11, 11, 4), (11, 10, 5),\n",
     "             (10, 10, 6), (10, 9, 7), (9, 9, 8), (9, 8, 9)]:\n",
     "    print(f\"asu {beds[0]} rehab {beds[1]} pooled {beds[2]}\")\n",
     "    print(pooled_delay.calculate_delay(\n",
@@ -4782,7 +5251,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 19,
+   "execution_count": 24,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -4791,7 +5260,7 @@
        "0.024341193866000005"
       ]
      },
-     "execution_count": 19,
+     "execution_count": 24,
      "metadata": {},
      "output_type": "execute_result"
     }
@@ -4799,111 +5268,6 @@
    "source": [
     "(0.012664*(1-0.150691))+(0.012664*0.150691)+(0.022350*0.111069)+(0.038513*0.077523)+(0.061437*0.051057)+(0.094876*0.032383)"
    ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "source": [
-    "But it doesn't match the article."
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 20,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/plain": [
-       "beds\n",
-       "0     1.000000\n",
-       "1     0.894819\n",
-       "2     0.770781\n",
-       "3     0.686520\n",
-       "4     0.587002\n",
-       "5     0.500791\n",
-       "6     0.413733\n",
-       "7     0.334108\n",
-       "8     0.256869\n",
-       "9     0.193202\n",
-       "10    0.138199\n",
-       "11    0.094876\n",
-       "12    0.061437\n",
-       "13    0.038513\n",
-       "14    0.022350\n",
-       "15    0.012664\n",
-       "16    0.006438\n",
-       "17    0.003322\n",
-       "18    0.001547\n",
-       "19    0.000643\n",
-       "20    0.000259\n",
-       "21    0.000132\n",
-       "22    0.000047\n",
-       "23    0.000015\n",
-       "24    0.000007\n",
-       "25    0.000004\n",
-       "26    0.000000\n",
-       "27    0.000004\n",
-       "Name: prob_delay, dtype: float64"
-      ]
-     },
-     "execution_count": 20,
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "pooled_delay.asu"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 21,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/plain": [
-       "beds\n",
-       "0     1.000000\n",
-       "1     0.864662\n",
-       "2     0.814246\n",
-       "3     0.754290\n",
-       "4     0.660096\n",
-       "5     0.574731\n",
-       "6     0.488960\n",
-       "7     0.403547\n",
-       "8     0.331217\n",
-       "9     0.260503\n",
-       "10    0.202678\n",
-       "11    0.150691\n",
-       "12    0.111069\n",
-       "13    0.077523\n",
-       "14    0.051057\n",
-       "15    0.032383\n",
-       "16    0.019416\n",
-       "17    0.011187\n",
-       "18    0.006143\n",
-       "19    0.003121\n",
-       "20    0.001372\n",
-       "21    0.000680\n",
-       "22    0.000362\n",
-       "23    0.000179\n",
-       "24    0.000062\n",
-       "25    0.000018\n",
-       "26    0.000018\n",
-       "27    0.000004\n",
-       "Name: prob_delay, dtype: float64"
-      ]
-     },
-     "execution_count": 21,
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "pooled_delay.rehab"
-   ]
   }
  ],
  "metadata": {

From 1602069d36568e441e44c7e4bb5d934d6365b30f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Fri, 11 Apr 2025 09:13:47 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 11/24] docs(readme): add installation instructions and list of
 results

---
 README.md | 37 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-----
 1 file changed, 32 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-)

diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index c24fd4a..16d3201 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -14,15 +14,31 @@ This repository applies the [Python DES RAP Template](https://github.com/pythonh
 
 > Monks T, Worthington D, Allen M, Pitt M, Stein K, James MA. A modelling tool for capacity planning in acute and community stroke services. BMC Health Serv Res. 2016 Sep 29;16(1):530. doi: [10.1186/s12913-016-1789-4](https://doi.org/10.1186/s12913-016-1789-4). PMID: 27688152; PMCID: PMC5043535.
 
+Model diagram:
+
 ![](images/stroke_rehab_design.png)
 
 <br>
 
 ## Installation
 
-TBC
+Clone the repository locally:
 
-<!-- TODO: Provide instructions for installing dependencies and setting up the environment. -->
+```
+git clone https://github.com/pythonhealthdatascience/stroke_rap_python.git
+cd stroke_rap_python
+```
+
+Use the provided `environment.yaml` file to set up a Python environment with `conda`:
+
+```
+conda env create --file environment.yaml
+conda activate
+```
+
+The provided `environment.yaml` file is a snapshot of the environment used when creating the repository, including specific package versions. You can update this file if necessary, but be sure to test that everything continues to work as expected after any updates. Also note that some dependencies are not required for modelling, but instead served other purposes, like running `.ipynb` files and linting.
+
+As an alternative, a `requirements.txt` file is provided which can be used to set up the environment with `virtualenv`. This is used by GitHub actions, which run much faster with a virtual environment than a conda environment. However, we recommend locally installing the environment using conda, as it will also manage the Python version for you. If using `virtualenv`, it won't fetch a specific version of Python - so please note the version listed in `environment.yaml`.
 
 <br>
 
@@ -49,7 +65,7 @@ Example altering the model parameters:
 from simulation.parameters import Param, ASUArrivals, RehabRouting
 from simulation.runner import Runner
 
-# Modified on of the arrival rates, some routing probabilities, and the
+# Modified one of the arrival rates, some routing probabilities, and the
 # number of replications
 param = Param(
     asu_arrivals=ASUArrivals(tia=10),
@@ -60,9 +76,20 @@ runner = Runner(param=param)
 rep_results = runner.run_reps()
 ```
 
-### Generating the figures from the article
+### Generating the results from the article
+
+The original study used Simul8. Each of the outputs from that article have been replicated in this repository using Python:
+
+* Figure 1. Simulation probability density function for occupancy of an acute stroke unit.
+* Figure 3. Simulated trade-off between the probability that a patient is delayed and the no. of acute beds available.
+* Table 2. Likelihood of delay. Current admissions versus 5% more admissions.
+* Table 3. Results of pooling of acute and rehab beds.
+* Supplementary Table 1. Likelihood of delay. Current admissions versus No Complex neurological patients.
+* Supplementary Table 3. Likelihood of delay. Current admissions versus ring fenced acute stroke beds.
+
+To generate these, simply execute `notebooks/analysis.ipynb`.
 
-The original study used Simul8. Each of the outputs from that article have been reproduced in this repository using Python, with some examples below. To generate these, simply execute `notebooks/analysis.ipynb`.
+<!--TODO: Update this is not all executed in that single notebook-->
 
 #### Examples
 

From 41ed9e33d4342da33cf2a44dc254125de43e6864 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Fri, 11 Apr 2025 09:14:48 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 12/24] docs(log): update log

---
 docs/log.md | 50 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-
 1 file changed, 49 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-)

diff --git a/docs/log.md b/docs/log.md
index 53f6dc9..b105029 100644
--- a/docs/log.md
+++ b/docs/log.md
@@ -805,4 +805,52 @@ I then add new tests based on the python template and on the tests ran in https:
 
 I add methods to check parameter validity in `Param`. This flagged that rehab other routing probability don't sum to 100% (88% and 13%) - but this is as described in the paper, and presumed to be due to rounding, so altered the validation test to allow.
 
-> 💡 When explain tests, could do all in one section, like Tests > Back tests, Tests > Functional tests, Tests > Unit tests - and then on each of those pages, it's like, if you have parameter validation... if you have warm-up... etc. etc. suggesting tests could include.
\ No newline at end of file
+> 💡 When explain tests, could do all in one section, like Tests > Back tests, Tests > Functional tests, Tests > Unit tests - and then on each of those pages, it's like, if you have parameter validation... if you have warm-up... etc. etc. suggesting tests could include.
+
+## Scenario logic
+
+Having successfully implemented the base model generating Figure 1 and 3 (as in https://github.com/pythonhealthdatascience/llm_simpy/), I then moved on to the scenarios from Monks et al. 2016. These were:
+
+0. **Current admissions** Current admission levels; beds are reserved for either acute or rehab patients
+1. **5% more admissions** A 5% increase in admissions across all patient subgroups.
+2. **Pooling of acute and rehab beds** The acute and rehab wards are co-located at same site. Beds are pooled and can be used by either acute or rehabilitation patients. Pooling of the total bed stock of 22 is compared to the pooling of an increased bed stock of 26.
+3. **Partial pooling of acute and rehab beds** The acute and rehab wards are co-located at same site. A subset of the 26 beds are pooled and can be used by either acute or rehab patients.
+4. **No complex-neurological cases** Complex neurological patients are excluded from the pathway in order to assess their impact on bed requirements
+
+### Scenario 1 and 4
+
+As from the supplementary:
+
+> "Scenarios investigating increased demand multiply the mean arrival rates (supplied in main text) by the appropriate factor. To exclude a particular patient group, the mean inter-arrival time for that group is multiplied by a large number such that no arrivals will occur in the modelled time horizon."
+
+Hence, it is understood that:
+
+* **Scenario 1** can be achieved by multiplying all patient IAT by 1.05 (see below: 0.95).
+* **Scenario 4** can be achieved by multiplying IAT for complex neurological patients by a very high number (e.g. 10,000,000) - and can add a test which checks no patients are complex neurological.
+
+## Using multiple replications
+
+Altered `Runner` to output summary tables from across replications, and switched to using these for Figures 1 and 3.
+
+## Scenario 1 + Table 2
+
+Ran scenario 1 in `analysis.ipynb` and created Table 2. Noticed some differences. 
+
+I find scenario with same bed number, probability of delay drops. They find that it goes up.
+
+Thinking through the logic, scenario has more arrivals -> wards more full -> expect delays for lower max bed numbers earlier -> expect higher probability of delay for lower bed numbers.
+
+I then realised my mistake! I had actually lower admissions, as I'd multiplied IAT by 1.05, when I should've multiplied by 0.95.
+
+## Scenario 4 + supplementary table 1
+
+Ran scenario, adjusted function from table 2 so it could be used to make this table too.
+
+## Scenario logic
+
+We now have two remaining scenarios:
+
+* Scenario 2: **Pooling of acute and rehab beds** The acute and rehab wards are co-located at same site. Beds are pooled and can be used by either acute or rehabilitation patients. Pooling of the total bed stock of 22 is compared to the pooling of an increased bed stock of 26.
+* Scenario 3: **Partial pooling of acute and rehab beds** The acute and rehab wards are co-located at same site. A subset of the 26 beds are pooled and can be used by either acute or rehab patients.
+
+It took quite a while to understand the formula and how to implement them.
\ No newline at end of file

From e5d9cd95461de5796c25370e1efd7701f6dc3785 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 6 May 2025 11:05:38 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 13/24] feat(data): add parameters as a long csv file

---
 inputs/data_dictionary.md |  9 +++++++++
 inputs/parameters.csv     | 38 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 2 files changed, 47 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 inputs/data_dictionary.md
 create mode 100644 inputs/parameters.csv

diff --git a/inputs/data_dictionary.md b/inputs/data_dictionary.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b92a516
--- /dev/null
+++ b/inputs/data_dictionary.md
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+# Data dictionary for `parameters.csv`
+
+| Column | Data type | Description | Possible values |
+| - | - | - | - |
+| unit | str | Hospital unit | `asu`: Acute Stroke Unit<br>`rehab`: Rehabilitation Unit (post-acute recovery care) |
+| parameter | str | Type of operational metric | `iat`: Inter-arrival time (time between patient admissions)<br>`los`: Length of stay (duration from admission to discharge)<br>`routing`: Transition probability between care pathways  |
+| type | str | Patient classification or care transition path | **For `iat`/`los`:**<br>`stroke`: Stroke patients<br>`stroke_esd`: Stroke patients transferred to Early Supported Discharge<br>`stroke_noesd`: Stroke patients not transferred to Early Supported Discharge<br>`tia`: Transient Ischemic Attack patients<br>`neuro`: Complex neurological patients<br>`other`: Other patient types<br><br>**For `routing`:**<br>`[diagnosis]_rehab`: Probability of transferring to rehabilitation unit<br>`[diagnosis]_esd`: Probability of Early Supported Discharge<br>`[diagnosis]_other`: Probability of other discharge pathways |
+| mean | float | **For `iat`:** Mean days between admissions<br>**For `los`:** Mean days in unit<br>**For `routing`:** Probability (0-1 scale) | - |
+| sd | float | Standard deviation of the mean | - |
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/inputs/parameters.csv b/inputs/parameters.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b564dd8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/inputs/parameters.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+unit,parameter,type,mean,sd
+asu,iat,stroke,1.2,NA
+asu,iat,tia,9.3,NA
+asu,iat,neuro,3.6,NA
+asu,iat,other,3.2,NA
+rehab,iat,stroke,21.8,NA
+rehab,iat,neuro,31.7,NA
+rehab,iat,other,28.6,NA
+asu,los,stroke_noesd,7.4,8.61
+asu,los,stroke_esd,4.6,4.8
+asu,los,tia,1.8,2.3
+asu,los,neuro,4,5
+asu,los,other,3.8,5.2
+rehab,los,stroke_noesd,28.4,27.2
+rehab,los,stroke_esd,30.3,2un3.1
+rehab,los,tia,18.7,23.5
+rehab,los,neuro,27.6,28.4
+rehab,los,other,16.1,14.1
+asu,routing,stroke_rehab,0.24,NA
+asu,routing,stroke_esd,0.13,NA
+asu,routing,stroke_other,0.63,NA
+asu,routing,tia_rehab,0.01,NA
+asu,routing,tia_esd,0.01,NA
+asu,routing,tia_other,0.98,NA
+asu,routing,neuro_rehab,0.11,NA
+asu,routing,neuro_esd,0.05,NA
+asu,routing,neuro_other,0.84,NA
+asu,routing,other_rehab,0.05,NA
+asu,routing,other_esd,0.1,NA
+asu,routing,other_other,0.85,NA
+rehab,routing,stroke_esd,0.4,NA
+rehab,routing,stroke_other,0.6,NA
+rehab,routing,tia_esd,0,NA
+rehab,routing,tia_other,1,NA
+rehab,routing,neuro_esd,0.09,NA
+rehab,routing,neuro_other,0.91,NA
+rehab,routing,other_esd,0.13,NA
+rehab,routing,other_other,0.88,NA

From be89bb827ca4d0a183e68e4476bbfd9dde077ddf Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 6 May 2025 11:52:52 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 14/24] feat(data): create notebook with imports parameters
 from CSV and sets up Param (also, corrected noesd to no_esd in CSV)

---
 inputs/data_dictionary.md      |   2 +-
 inputs/parameters.csv          |   4 +-
 notebooks/parameters_csv.ipynb | 175 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 3 files changed, 178 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 notebooks/parameters_csv.ipynb

diff --git a/inputs/data_dictionary.md b/inputs/data_dictionary.md
index b92a516..47e8d9a 100644
--- a/inputs/data_dictionary.md
+++ b/inputs/data_dictionary.md
@@ -4,6 +4,6 @@
 | - | - | - | - |
 | unit | str | Hospital unit | `asu`: Acute Stroke Unit<br>`rehab`: Rehabilitation Unit (post-acute recovery care) |
 | parameter | str | Type of operational metric | `iat`: Inter-arrival time (time between patient admissions)<br>`los`: Length of stay (duration from admission to discharge)<br>`routing`: Transition probability between care pathways  |
-| type | str | Patient classification or care transition path | **For `iat`/`los`:**<br>`stroke`: Stroke patients<br>`stroke_esd`: Stroke patients transferred to Early Supported Discharge<br>`stroke_noesd`: Stroke patients not transferred to Early Supported Discharge<br>`tia`: Transient Ischemic Attack patients<br>`neuro`: Complex neurological patients<br>`other`: Other patient types<br><br>**For `routing`:**<br>`[diagnosis]_rehab`: Probability of transferring to rehabilitation unit<br>`[diagnosis]_esd`: Probability of Early Supported Discharge<br>`[diagnosis]_other`: Probability of other discharge pathways |
+| type | str | Patient classification or care transition path | **For `iat`/`los`:**<br>`stroke`: Stroke patients<br>`stroke_esd`: Stroke patients transferred to Early Supported Discharge<br>`stroke_no_esd`: Stroke patients not transferred to Early Supported Discharge<br>`tia`: Transient Ischemic Attack patients<br>`neuro`: Complex neurological patients<br>`other`: Other patient types<br><br>**For `routing`:**<br>`[diagnosis]_rehab`: Probability of transferring to rehabilitation unit<br>`[diagnosis]_esd`: Probability of Early Supported Discharge<br>`[diagnosis]_other`: Probability of other discharge pathways |
 | mean | float | **For `iat`:** Mean days between admissions<br>**For `los`:** Mean days in unit<br>**For `routing`:** Probability (0-1 scale) | - |
 | sd | float | Standard deviation of the mean | - |
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/inputs/parameters.csv b/inputs/parameters.csv
index b564dd8..43d1a5c 100644
--- a/inputs/parameters.csv
+++ b/inputs/parameters.csv
@@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ asu,iat,other,3.2,NA
 rehab,iat,stroke,21.8,NA
 rehab,iat,neuro,31.7,NA
 rehab,iat,other,28.6,NA
-asu,los,stroke_noesd,7.4,8.61
+asu,los,stroke_no_esd,7.4,8.61
 asu,los,stroke_esd,4.6,4.8
 asu,los,tia,1.8,2.3
 asu,los,neuro,4,5
 asu,los,other,3.8,5.2
-rehab,los,stroke_noesd,28.4,27.2
+rehab,los,stroke_no_esd,28.4,27.2
 rehab,los,stroke_esd,30.3,2un3.1
 rehab,los,tia,18.7,23.5
 rehab,los,neuro,27.6,28.4
diff --git a/notebooks/parameters_csv.ipynb b/notebooks/parameters_csv.ipynb
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..66bbb3a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/notebooks/parameters_csv.ipynb
@@ -0,0 +1,175 @@
+{
+ "cells": [
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "# Using parameters from csv"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 1,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "import pandas as pd\n",
+    "\n",
+    "from simulation.parameters import (\n",
+    "    ASUArrivals, RehabArrivals, ASULOS, RehabLOS,\n",
+    "    ASURouting, RehabRouting, Param\n",
+    ")"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "## Creating parameter class\n",
+    "\n",
+    "We can set up classes based on CSV, replacing the default inputs with those from the csv.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "If you were only planning to use parameters from csv, then you could remove the default inputs from the classes in `parameters.py` altogether."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 2,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "def init_param_class(df, unit, parameter, param_class):\n",
+    "    \"\"\"\n",
+    "    Instantiate a parameter class using values from a DataFrame.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Parameters\n",
+    "    ----------\n",
+    "    df : pd.DataFrame\n",
+    "        Dataframe with columns \"unit\", \"parameter\", \"type\", \"mean\" and \"sd\".\n",
+    "    unit : str\n",
+    "        Unit name to filter by (\"asu\" or \"rehab\").\n",
+    "    parameter : str\n",
+    "        Parameter name to filter by (\"iat\", \"los\" or \"routing\").\n",
+    "    param_class: class\n",
+    "        Class to instantiate.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Returns\n",
+    "    -------\n",
+    "    object\n",
+    "        An instance of param_class initialised with parameters from the\n",
+    "        DataFrame.\n",
+    "    \"\"\"\n",
+    "    # Filter data to the specified unit and parameter\n",
+    "    df_subset = df[(df[\"unit\"] == unit) & (df[\"parameter\"] == parameter)]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # If all SD values are missing, create a dict: {type: mean}\n",
+    "    if df_subset[\"sd\"].isnull().all():\n",
+    "        param_dict = df_subset.set_index(\"type\")[\"mean\"].to_dict()\n",
+    "    # Otherwise, create a nested dict with mean and SD for each type\n",
+    "    else:\n",
+    "        param_dict = {}\n",
+    "        for _, row in df_subset.iterrows():\n",
+    "            param_dict[f\"{row[\"type\"]}_mean\"] = row[\"mean\"]\n",
+    "            param_dict[f\"{row[\"type\"]}_sd\"] = row[\"sd\"]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # Instantiate parameter class using dict\n",
+    "    return param_class(**param_dict)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "\n",
+    "\n",
+    "def setup_param_from_csv(csv_path):\n",
+    "    \"\"\"\n",
+    "    Create a Param instance using parameter values loaded from a CSV file.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Parameters\n",
+    "    ----------\n",
+    "    csv_path : str\n",
+    "        Path to csv file containing the parameters. Should have columns \"unit\",\n",
+    "        \"parameter\", \"type\", \"mean\" and \"sd\". Missing values should be marked\n",
+    "        as \"NA\".\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Returns\n",
+    "    -------\n",
+    "    Param\n",
+    "        An instance of Param initialised with the parameters from the CSV file.\n",
+    "    \"\"\"\n",
+    "    # Load parameter data from CSV, treating \"NA\" as missing values\n",
+    "    df = pd.read_csv(csv_path, na_values=[\"NA\"])\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # Specify mapping of Param() arguments to their corresponding units,\n",
+    "    # parameter types, and parameter classes\n",
+    "    param_specs = [\n",
+    "        (\"asu_arrivals\", \"asu\", \"iat\", ASUArrivals),\n",
+    "        (\"rehab_arrivals\", \"rehab\", \"iat\", RehabArrivals),\n",
+    "        (\"asu_los\", \"asu\", \"los\", ASULOS),\n",
+    "        (\"rehab_los\", \"rehab\", \"los\", RehabLOS),\n",
+    "        (\"asu_routing\", \"asu\", \"routing\", ASURouting),\n",
+    "        (\"rehab_routing\", \"rehab\", \"routing\", RehabRouting),\n",
+    "    ]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # Instantiate each parameter class and store in a dictionary\n",
+    "    param_kwargs = {\n",
+    "        name: init_param_class(\n",
+    "            df=df, unit=unit, parameter=parameter, param_class=param_class)\n",
+    "        for name, unit, parameter, param_class in param_specs\n",
+    "    }\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # Return a Param instance initialised with all parameter classes\n",
+    "    return Param(**param_kwargs)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 3,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/plain": [
+       "{'asu_arrivals': <simulation.parameters.ASUArrivals at 0x74dbb0272850>,\n",
+       " 'rehab_arrivals': <simulation.parameters.RehabArrivals at 0x74dbb0272990>,\n",
+       " 'asu_los': <simulation.parameters.ASULOS at 0x74dae09ca710>,\n",
+       " 'rehab_los': <simulation.parameters.RehabLOS at 0x74dae08f0f50>,\n",
+       " 'asu_routing': <simulation.parameters.ASURouting at 0x74dae08f1090>,\n",
+       " 'rehab_routing': <simulation.parameters.RehabRouting at 0x74dae085c2d0>,\n",
+       " 'warm_up_period': 1095,\n",
+       " 'data_collection_period': 1825,\n",
+       " 'number_of_runs': 150,\n",
+       " 'audit_interval': 1,\n",
+       " 'cores': 1,\n",
+       " 'logger': <simulation.logging.SimLogger at 0x74dae06c4980>,\n",
+       " '_initialised': True}"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 3,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "setup_param_from_csv(csv_path=\"../inputs/parameters.csv\").__dict__"
+   ]
+  }
+ ],
+ "metadata": {
+  "kernelspec": {
+   "display_name": "stroke-rap-python",
+   "language": "python",
+   "name": "python3"
+  },
+  "language_info": {
+   "codemirror_mode": {
+    "name": "ipython",
+    "version": 3
+   },
+   "file_extension": ".py",
+   "mimetype": "text/x-python",
+   "name": "python",
+   "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
+   "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
+   "version": "3.13.1"
+  }
+ },
+ "nbformat": 4,
+ "nbformat_minor": 2
+}

From f79faca24dabcc5e08bc029e231833a62fdedd51 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 20 May 2025 15:04:25 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 15/24] feat(runner): add 1_in_n_delay to output table and
 regenerate exp results

---
 notebooks/generate_exp_results.ipynb  | 36 +++++++++++------
 simulation/runner.py                  | 30 +++++++++++++-
 tests/exp_results/asu_occupancy.csv   | 56 +++++++++++++--------------
 tests/exp_results/rehab_occupancy.csv | 36 ++++++++---------
 4 files changed, 98 insertions(+), 60 deletions(-)

diff --git a/notebooks/generate_exp_results.ipynb b/notebooks/generate_exp_results.ipynb
index 7ffa02f..78b89f9 100644
--- a/notebooks/generate_exp_results.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/generate_exp_results.ipynb
@@ -178,6 +178,7 @@
        "      <th>pct</th>\n",
        "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
        "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
+       "      <th>1_in_n_delay</th>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </thead>\n",
        "  <tbody>\n",
@@ -188,6 +189,7 @@
        "      <td>0.000548</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.000548</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
@@ -196,6 +198,7 @@
        "      <td>0.006575</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.007123</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.923077</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
@@ -204,6 +207,7 @@
        "      <td>0.021370</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.028493</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.750000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
@@ -212,6 +216,7 @@
        "      <td>0.041644</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.070137</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.593750</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
@@ -220,18 +225,19 @@
        "      <td>0.073425</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.143562</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.511450</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
        "</div>"
       ],
       "text/plain": [
-       "   beds  freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "0     1     1  0.000548  0.000548    1.000000\n",
-       "1     2    12  0.006575  0.007123    0.923077\n",
-       "2     3    39  0.021370  0.028493    0.750000\n",
-       "3     4    76  0.041644  0.070137    0.593750\n",
-       "4     5   134  0.073425  0.143562    0.511450"
+       "   beds  freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay  1_in_n_delay\n",
+       "0     1     1  0.000548  0.000548    1.000000           1.0\n",
+       "1     2    12  0.006575  0.007123    0.923077           1.0\n",
+       "2     3    39  0.021370  0.028493    0.750000           1.0\n",
+       "3     4    76  0.041644  0.070137    0.593750           2.0\n",
+       "4     5   134  0.073425  0.143562    0.511450           2.0"
       ]
      },
      "metadata": {},
@@ -263,6 +269,7 @@
        "      <th>pct</th>\n",
        "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
        "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
+       "      <th>1_in_n_delay</th>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </thead>\n",
        "  <tbody>\n",
@@ -273,6 +280,7 @@
        "      <td>0.004932</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.004932</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
@@ -281,6 +289,7 @@
        "      <td>0.013699</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.018630</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.735294</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
@@ -289,6 +298,7 @@
        "      <td>0.040548</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.059178</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.685185</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
@@ -297,6 +307,7 @@
        "      <td>0.080548</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.139726</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.576471</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
@@ -305,18 +316,19 @@
        "      <td>0.096438</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.236164</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.408353</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
        "</div>"
       ],
       "text/plain": [
-       "   beds  freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "0     3     9  0.004932  0.004932    1.000000\n",
-       "1     4    25  0.013699  0.018630    0.735294\n",
-       "2     5    74  0.040548  0.059178    0.685185\n",
-       "3     6   147  0.080548  0.139726    0.576471\n",
-       "4     7   176  0.096438  0.236164    0.408353"
+       "   beds  freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay  1_in_n_delay\n",
+       "0     3     9  0.004932  0.004932    1.000000           1.0\n",
+       "1     4    25  0.013699  0.018630    0.735294           1.0\n",
+       "2     5    74  0.040548  0.059178    0.685185           1.0\n",
+       "3     6   147  0.080548  0.139726    0.576471           2.0\n",
+       "4     7   176  0.096438  0.236164    0.408353           2.0"
       ]
      },
      "metadata": {},
diff --git a/simulation/runner.py b/simulation/runner.py
index d2a3424..630bb68 100644
--- a/simulation/runner.py
+++ b/simulation/runner.py
@@ -70,6 +70,7 @@ def calculate_occupancy_stats(self, df):
         1. Percentage
         2. Cumulative percentage
         3. Probability of delay
+        4. 1 in every n patients delays
 
         Parameters
         ----------
@@ -86,6 +87,9 @@ def calculate_occupancy_stats(self, df):
         # Calculate the probability of delay
         df["prob_delay"] = df["pct"] / df["c_pct"]
 
+        #  Add column with calculation of 1 in every n patients delayed
+        df["1_in_n_delay"] = round(1 / df["prob_delay"])
+
         return df
 
     def run_single(self, run):
@@ -103,11 +107,28 @@ def run_single(self, run):
         rehab_occupancy = self.get_occupancy_freq(
             audit_list=model.audit_list, unit="rehab")
 
-        return {"asu": asu_occupancy, "rehab": rehab_occupancy}
+        # Return the raw audit list and calculated occupancy frequencies
+        return {"audit_list": model.audit_list,
+                "asu": asu_occupancy,
+                "rehab": rehab_occupancy}
 
     def run_reps(self):
         """
         Execute a single model configuration for multiple runs/replications.
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        result : dict of str -> pd.DataFrame
+            Dictionary containing concatenated occupancy dataframes for each
+            unit (e.g., 'asu' and 'rehab'), with an added 'run' column
+            indicating the replication.
+        overall : dict of str -> pd.DataFrame
+            Dictionary containing summary statistics for each unit, including
+            frequency, percentage, cumulative percentage, and probability of
+            delay.
+        combined_audit_list : list
+            Combined audit list containing all audit entries from every
+            replication, concatenated into a single list.
         """
         # Sequential execution
         if self.param.cores == 1:
@@ -163,4 +184,9 @@ def run_reps(self):
             # delay, and save to dictionary
             overall[unit] = self.calculate_occupancy_stats(comb)
 
-        return result, overall
+        # Combine all audit lists from every replication into one list
+        combined_audit_list = []
+        for entry in results:
+            combined_audit_list.extend(entry["audit_list"])
+
+        return result, overall, combined_audit_list
diff --git a/tests/exp_results/asu_occupancy.csv b/tests/exp_results/asu_occupancy.csv
index 75e2cd9..7f544e8 100644
--- a/tests/exp_results/asu_occupancy.csv
+++ b/tests/exp_results/asu_occupancy.csv
@@ -1,28 +1,28 @@
-beds,freq,pct,c_pct,prob_delay
-1,1,0.000547945205479452,0.000547945205479452,1.0
-2,12,0.006575342465753425,0.007123287671232877,0.923076923076923
-3,39,0.021369863013698632,0.02849315068493151,0.75
-4,76,0.041643835616438356,0.07013698630136986,0.59375
-5,134,0.07342465753424658,0.14356164383561643,0.5114503816793894
-6,215,0.1178082191780822,0.26136986301369863,0.45073375262054505
-7,226,0.12383561643835617,0.3852054794520548,0.32147937411095306
-8,266,0.14575342465753424,0.530958904109589,0.27450980392156865
-9,245,0.13424657534246576,0.6652054794520548,0.20181219110378915
-10,163,0.08931506849315068,0.7545205479452055,0.11837327523602033
-11,165,0.09041095890410959,0.8449315068493151,0.10700389105058367
-12,108,0.05917808219178082,0.9041095890410958,0.06545454545454546
-13,89,0.04876712328767123,0.952876712328767,0.05117883841288097
-14,34,0.01863013698630137,0.9715068493150684,0.019176536943034405
-15,15,0.00821917808219178,0.9797260273972601,0.008389261744966443
-16,19,0.010410958904109589,0.9901369863013697,0.010514665190924186
-17,6,0.0032876712328767125,0.9934246575342465,0.003309431880860453
-18,5,0.0027397260273972603,0.9961643835616437,0.0027502750275027505
-19,2,0.001095890410958904,0.9972602739726026,0.001098901098901099
-20,1,0.000547945205479452,0.997808219178082,0.0005491488193300384
-21,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9983561643835615,0.0005488474204171241
-22,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9989041095890409,0.0005485463521667582
-23,0,0.0,0.9989041095890409,0.0
-24,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9994520547945203,0.0005482456140350878
-25,0,0.0,0.9994520547945203,0.0
-26,0,0.0,0.9994520547945203,0.0
-27,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9999999999999997,0.0005479452054794522
+beds,freq,pct,c_pct,prob_delay,1_in_n_delay
+1,1,0.000547945205479452,0.000547945205479452,1.0,1.0
+2,12,0.006575342465753425,0.007123287671232877,0.923076923076923,1.0
+3,39,0.021369863013698632,0.02849315068493151,0.75,1.0
+4,76,0.041643835616438356,0.07013698630136986,0.59375,2.0
+5,134,0.07342465753424658,0.14356164383561643,0.5114503816793894,2.0
+6,215,0.1178082191780822,0.26136986301369863,0.45073375262054505,2.0
+7,226,0.12383561643835617,0.3852054794520548,0.32147937411095306,3.0
+8,266,0.14575342465753424,0.530958904109589,0.27450980392156865,4.0
+9,245,0.13424657534246576,0.6652054794520548,0.20181219110378915,5.0
+10,163,0.08931506849315068,0.7545205479452055,0.11837327523602033,8.0
+11,165,0.09041095890410959,0.8449315068493151,0.10700389105058367,9.0
+12,108,0.05917808219178082,0.9041095890410958,0.06545454545454546,15.0
+13,89,0.04876712328767123,0.952876712328767,0.05117883841288097,20.0
+14,34,0.01863013698630137,0.9715068493150684,0.019176536943034405,52.0
+15,15,0.00821917808219178,0.9797260273972601,0.008389261744966443,119.0
+16,19,0.010410958904109589,0.9901369863013697,0.010514665190924186,95.0
+17,6,0.0032876712328767125,0.9934246575342465,0.003309431880860453,302.0
+18,5,0.0027397260273972603,0.9961643835616437,0.0027502750275027505,364.0
+19,2,0.001095890410958904,0.9972602739726026,0.001098901098901099,910.0
+20,1,0.000547945205479452,0.997808219178082,0.0005491488193300384,1821.0
+21,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9983561643835615,0.0005488474204171241,1822.0
+22,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9989041095890409,0.0005485463521667582,1823.0
+23,0,0.0,0.9989041095890409,0.0,inf
+24,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9994520547945203,0.0005482456140350878,1824.0
+25,0,0.0,0.9994520547945203,0.0,inf
+26,0,0.0,0.9994520547945203,0.0,inf
+27,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9999999999999997,0.0005479452054794522,1825.0
diff --git a/tests/exp_results/rehab_occupancy.csv b/tests/exp_results/rehab_occupancy.csv
index 7b4f398..d20032c 100644
--- a/tests/exp_results/rehab_occupancy.csv
+++ b/tests/exp_results/rehab_occupancy.csv
@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
-beds,freq,pct,c_pct,prob_delay
-3,9,0.004931506849315068,0.004931506849315068,1.0
-4,25,0.0136986301369863,0.01863013698630137,0.7352941176470588
-5,74,0.040547945205479455,0.05917808219178082,0.6851851851851852
-6,147,0.08054794520547945,0.13972602739726026,0.5764705882352942
-7,176,0.09643835616438357,0.23616438356164382,0.4083526682134571
-8,247,0.13534246575342465,0.3715068493150685,0.36430678466076694
-9,308,0.16876712328767124,0.5402739726027397,0.31237322515212984
-10,331,0.18136986301369862,0.7216438356164383,0.2513287775246773
-11,220,0.12054794520547946,0.8421917808219177,0.14313597918022122
-12,117,0.06410958904109589,0.9063013698630136,0.07073760580411124
-13,71,0.03890410958904109,0.9452054794520547,0.04115942028985507
-14,46,0.025205479452054796,0.9704109589041094,0.02597402597402598
-15,24,0.01315068493150685,0.9835616438356163,0.01337047353760446
-16,14,0.007671232876712329,0.9912328767123286,0.007739082365948039
-17,7,0.0038356164383561643,0.9950684931506848,0.0038546255506607934
-18,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9956164383561642,0.0005503577325261421
-19,8,0.004383561643835616,0.9999999999999998,0.004383561643835617
+beds,freq,pct,c_pct,prob_delay,1_in_n_delay
+3,9,0.004931506849315068,0.004931506849315068,1.0,1.0
+4,25,0.0136986301369863,0.01863013698630137,0.7352941176470588,1.0
+5,74,0.040547945205479455,0.05917808219178082,0.6851851851851852,1.0
+6,147,0.08054794520547945,0.13972602739726026,0.5764705882352942,2.0
+7,176,0.09643835616438357,0.23616438356164382,0.4083526682134571,2.0
+8,247,0.13534246575342465,0.3715068493150685,0.36430678466076694,3.0
+9,308,0.16876712328767124,0.5402739726027397,0.31237322515212984,3.0
+10,331,0.18136986301369862,0.7216438356164383,0.2513287775246773,4.0
+11,220,0.12054794520547946,0.8421917808219177,0.14313597918022122,7.0
+12,117,0.06410958904109589,0.9063013698630136,0.07073760580411124,14.0
+13,71,0.03890410958904109,0.9452054794520547,0.04115942028985507,24.0
+14,46,0.025205479452054796,0.9704109589041094,0.02597402597402598,38.0
+15,24,0.01315068493150685,0.9835616438356163,0.01337047353760446,75.0
+16,14,0.007671232876712329,0.9912328767123286,0.007739082365948039,129.0
+17,7,0.0038356164383561643,0.9950684931506848,0.0038546255506607934,259.0
+18,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9956164383561642,0.0005503577325261421,1817.0
+19,8,0.004383561643835616,0.9999999999999998,0.004383561643835617,228.0

From bab543e5aadc30ae4132583fde7b4f69a6ff02e2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 20 May 2025 15:05:13 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 16/24] fix(complete pooling): correct calculation of complete
 pooling to use raw bed numbers rather than just combining counts of overall
 frequencies

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb    | 1148 ++++++++++++++++++++++-------------
 outputs/delay_scenario1.csv |   24 +-
 outputs/delay_scenario4.csv |   22 +-
 outputs/pooling.csv         |   10 +
 4 files changed, 764 insertions(+), 440 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 outputs/pooling.csv

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index 35914e4..0e54b33 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -47,7 +47,6 @@
     "import plotly.express as px\n",
     "\n",
     "from simulation.parameters import Param, ASUArrivals, RehabArrivals\n",
-    "from simulation.model import Model\n",
     "from simulation.runner import Runner"
    ]
   },
@@ -77,10 +76,10 @@
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
     "# Set up runner to run in parallel with nine cores\n",
-    "runner = Runner(param=Param(cores=9))\n",
+    "base_runner = Runner(param=Param(cores=9))\n",
     "\n",
     "# Run the model for 150 replications\n",
-    "base_reps, base_overall = runner.run_reps()"
+    "base_reps, base_overall, base_audit = base_runner.run_reps()"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -3830,8 +3829,8 @@
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
     "# Run the model for 150 replications\n",
-    "runner = Runner(param=s1_param)\n",
-    "s1_reps, s1_overall = runner.run_reps()"
+    "s1_runner = Runner(param=s1_param)\n",
+    "s1_reps, s1_overall, s1_audit = s1_runner.run_reps()"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -3890,18 +3889,16 @@
     "                                  scenario_name: scenario[unit_name]}.items():\n",
     "\n",
     "            # Extract results for specified beds\n",
-    "            df = df[df[\"beds\"].isin(unit_beds)][[\"beds\", \"prob_delay\"]]\n",
-    "\n",
-    "            # Add column with calculation of 1 in every n patients delayed\n",
-    "            df[f\"1_in_n_delay_{scenario_name}\"] = (\n",
-    "                round(1 / df[\"prob_delay\"])).astype(int)\n",
+    "            df = df[df[\"beds\"].isin(unit_beds)][\n",
+    "                [\"beds\", \"prob_delay\", \"1_in_n_delay\"]]\n",
     "\n",
     "            # Round probability of delay to 2 d.p.\n",
     "            df[\"prob_delay\"] = round(df[\"prob_delay\"], 2)\n",
     "\n",
     "            # Rename column to be specific to scenario\n",
     "            df = df.rename(columns={\n",
-    "                \"prob_delay\": f\"prob_delay_{scenario_name}\"})\n",
+    "                \"prob_delay\": f\"prob_delay_{scenario_name}\",\n",
+    "                \"1_in_n_delay\": f\"1_in_n_delay_{scenario_name}\"})\n",
     "\n",
     "            # Save dataframe to list\n",
     "            tab_segment.append(df)\n",
@@ -3959,117 +3956,117 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.19</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.21</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>7</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.16</td>\n",
-       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
-       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
-       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>26</td>\n",
+       "      <td>26.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
-       "      <td>20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>5</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>45</td>\n",
+       "      <td>45.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>33</td>\n",
+       "      <td>33.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.23</td>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>7</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
-       "      <td>7</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.18</td>\n",
-       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>8</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.13</td>\n",
-       "      <td>8</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>9</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
-       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
-       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>10</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
-       "      <td>20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>11</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>31</td>\n",
+       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>23</td>\n",
+       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>12</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>52</td>\n",
+       "      <td>52.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>37</td>\n",
+       "      <td>37.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
@@ -4077,34 +4074,34 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  1_in_n_delay_current  prob_delay_5%  \\\n",
-       "0     asu     9                0.19                     5           0.21   \n",
-       "1     asu    10                0.14                     7           0.16   \n",
-       "2     asu    11                0.09                    11           0.11   \n",
-       "3     asu    12                0.06                    16           0.08   \n",
-       "4     asu    13                0.04                    26           0.05   \n",
-       "5     asu    14                0.02                    45           0.03   \n",
-       "6   rehab    10                0.20                     5           0.23   \n",
-       "7   rehab    11                0.15                     7           0.18   \n",
-       "8   rehab    12                0.11                     9           0.13   \n",
-       "9   rehab    13                0.08                    13           0.09   \n",
-       "10  rehab    14                0.05                    20           0.06   \n",
-       "11  rehab    15                0.03                    31           0.04   \n",
-       "12  rehab    16                0.02                    52           0.03   \n",
+       "0     asu     9                0.19                   5.0           0.21   \n",
+       "1     asu    10                0.14                   7.0           0.16   \n",
+       "2     asu    11                0.09                  11.0           0.11   \n",
+       "3     asu    12                0.06                  16.0           0.08   \n",
+       "4     asu    13                0.04                  26.0           0.05   \n",
+       "5     asu    14                0.02                  45.0           0.03   \n",
+       "6   rehab    10                0.20                   5.0           0.23   \n",
+       "7   rehab    11                0.15                   7.0           0.18   \n",
+       "8   rehab    12                0.11                   9.0           0.13   \n",
+       "9   rehab    13                0.08                  13.0           0.09   \n",
+       "10  rehab    14                0.05                  20.0           0.06   \n",
+       "11  rehab    15                0.03                  31.0           0.04   \n",
+       "12  rehab    16                0.02                  52.0           0.03   \n",
        "\n",
        "    1_in_n_delay_5%  \n",
-       "0                 5  \n",
-       "1                 6  \n",
-       "2                 9  \n",
-       "3                13  \n",
-       "4                20  \n",
-       "5                33  \n",
-       "6                 4  \n",
-       "7                 6  \n",
-       "8                 8  \n",
-       "9                11  \n",
-       "10               15  \n",
-       "11               23  \n",
-       "12               37  "
+       "0               5.0  \n",
+       "1               6.0  \n",
+       "2               9.0  \n",
+       "3              13.0  \n",
+       "4              20.0  \n",
+       "5              33.0  \n",
+       "6               4.0  \n",
+       "7               6.0  \n",
+       "8               8.0  \n",
+       "9              11.0  \n",
+       "10             15.0  \n",
+       "11             23.0  \n",
+       "12             37.0  "
       ]
      },
      "execution_count": 11,
@@ -4168,7 +4165,7 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.19</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
        "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4177,7 +4174,7 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>7</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.16</td>\n",
        "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4186,7 +4183,7 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
-       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
        "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4195,7 +4192,7 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
        "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4204,7 +4201,7 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>26</td>\n",
+       "      <td>26.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
        "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4213,7 +4210,7 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>45</td>\n",
+       "      <td>45.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
        "      <td>33.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4222,7 +4219,7 @@
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
        "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4231,7 +4228,7 @@
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.13</td>\n",
        "      <td>8.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4240,7 +4237,7 @@
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
-       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
        "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4249,7 +4246,7 @@
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
-       "      <td>20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
        "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4258,7 +4255,7 @@
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>31</td>\n",
+       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
        "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4267,7 +4264,7 @@
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>52</td>\n",
+       "      <td>52.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
        "      <td>37.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4277,18 +4274,18 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  1_in_n_delay_current  prob_delay_5%  \\\n",
-       "0     asu     9                0.19                     5            NaN   \n",
-       "1     asu    10                0.14                     7           0.16   \n",
-       "2     asu    11                0.09                    11           0.11   \n",
-       "3     asu    12                0.06                    16           0.08   \n",
-       "4     asu    13                0.04                    26           0.05   \n",
-       "5     asu    14                0.02                    45           0.03   \n",
-       "6   rehab    10                0.20                     5            NaN   \n",
-       "8   rehab    12                0.11                     9           0.13   \n",
-       "9   rehab    13                0.08                    13           0.09   \n",
-       "10  rehab    14                0.05                    20           0.06   \n",
-       "11  rehab    15                0.03                    31           0.04   \n",
-       "12  rehab    16                0.02                    52           0.03   \n",
+       "0     asu     9                0.19                   5.0            NaN   \n",
+       "1     asu    10                0.14                   7.0           0.16   \n",
+       "2     asu    11                0.09                  11.0           0.11   \n",
+       "3     asu    12                0.06                  16.0           0.08   \n",
+       "4     asu    13                0.04                  26.0           0.05   \n",
+       "5     asu    14                0.02                  45.0           0.03   \n",
+       "6   rehab    10                0.20                   5.0            NaN   \n",
+       "8   rehab    12                0.11                   9.0           0.13   \n",
+       "9   rehab    13                0.08                  13.0           0.09   \n",
+       "10  rehab    14                0.05                  20.0           0.06   \n",
+       "11  rehab    15                0.03                  31.0           0.04   \n",
+       "12  rehab    16                0.02                  52.0           0.03   \n",
        "\n",
        "    1_in_n_delay_5%  \n",
        "0               NaN  \n",
@@ -4360,8 +4357,8 @@
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
     "# Run the model for 150 replications\n",
-    "runner = Runner(param=s4_param)\n",
-    "s4_reps, s4_overall = runner.run_reps()"
+    "s4_runner = Runner(param=s4_param)\n",
+    "s4_reps, s4_overall, s4_audit = s4_runner.run_reps()"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -4413,99 +4410,99 @@
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>7</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
-       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
-       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>18</td>\n",
+       "      <td>18.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>31</td>\n",
+       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>26</td>\n",
+       "      <td>26.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>55</td>\n",
+       "      <td>55.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>45</td>\n",
+       "      <td>45.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
-       "      <td>111</td>\n",
+       "      <td>111.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>5</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
-       "      <td>79</td>\n",
+       "      <td>79.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
-       "      <td>225</td>\n",
+       "      <td>225.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
-       "      <td>20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>7</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
-       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>32</td>\n",
+       "      <td>32.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>8</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
-       "      <td>20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>57</td>\n",
+       "      <td>57.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>9</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>31</td>\n",
+       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
-       "      <td>101</td>\n",
+       "      <td>101.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>10</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>52</td>\n",
+       "      <td>52.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
-       "      <td>212</td>\n",
+       "      <td>212.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
@@ -4513,30 +4510,30 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  1_in_n_delay_current  \\\n",
-       "0     asu    10                0.14                     7   \n",
-       "1     asu    11                0.09                    11   \n",
-       "2     asu    12                0.06                    16   \n",
-       "3     asu    13                0.04                    26   \n",
-       "4     asu    14                0.02                    45   \n",
-       "5     asu    15                0.01                    79   \n",
-       "6   rehab    12                0.11                     9   \n",
-       "7   rehab    13                0.08                    13   \n",
-       "8   rehab    14                0.05                    20   \n",
-       "9   rehab    15                0.03                    31   \n",
-       "10  rehab    16                0.02                    52   \n",
+       "0     asu    10                0.14                   7.0   \n",
+       "1     asu    11                0.09                  11.0   \n",
+       "2     asu    12                0.06                  16.0   \n",
+       "3     asu    13                0.04                  26.0   \n",
+       "4     asu    14                0.02                  45.0   \n",
+       "5     asu    15                0.01                  79.0   \n",
+       "6   rehab    12                0.11                   9.0   \n",
+       "7   rehab    13                0.08                  13.0   \n",
+       "8   rehab    14                0.05                  20.0   \n",
+       "9   rehab    15                0.03                  31.0   \n",
+       "10  rehab    16                0.02                  52.0   \n",
        "\n",
        "    prob_delay_no_complex_neuro  1_in_n_delay_no_complex_neuro  \n",
-       "0                          0.09                             11  \n",
-       "1                          0.06                             18  \n",
-       "2                          0.03                             31  \n",
-       "3                          0.02                             55  \n",
-       "4                          0.01                            111  \n",
-       "5                          0.00                            225  \n",
-       "6                          0.05                             20  \n",
-       "7                          0.03                             32  \n",
-       "8                          0.02                             57  \n",
-       "9                          0.01                            101  \n",
-       "10                         0.00                            212  "
+       "0                          0.09                           11.0  \n",
+       "1                          0.06                           18.0  \n",
+       "2                          0.03                           31.0  \n",
+       "3                          0.02                           55.0  \n",
+       "4                          0.01                          111.0  \n",
+       "5                          0.00                          225.0  \n",
+       "6                          0.05                           20.0  \n",
+       "7                          0.03                           32.0  \n",
+       "8                          0.02                           57.0  \n",
+       "9                          0.01                          101.0  \n",
+       "10                         0.00                          212.0  "
       ]
      },
      "metadata": {},
@@ -4570,26 +4567,6 @@
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": 16,
    "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "pooled_freq = base_overall[\"asu\"][\"freq\"] + base_overall[\"rehab\"][\"freq\"]\n",
-    "\n",
-    "df = pd.DataFrame(pooled_freq)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Add column with frequencies converted to proportions\n",
-    "df[\"pct\"] = df[\"freq\"] / df[\"freq\"].sum()\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Add column with the cumulative percentage\n",
-    "df[\"c_pct\"] = df[\"pct\"].cumsum()\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Calculate the probability of delay\n",
-    "df[\"prob_delay\"] = df[\"pct\"] / df[\"c_pct\"]"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 17,
-   "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
      "data": {
@@ -4612,292 +4589,497 @@
        "  <thead>\n",
        "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
        "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>beds</th>\n",
        "      <th>freq</th>\n",
        "      <th>pct</th>\n",
        "      <th>c_pct</th>\n",
        "      <th>prob_delay</th>\n",
+       "      <th>1_in_n_delay</th>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </thead>\n",
        "  <tbody>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>0</th>\n",
-       "      <td>85</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000155</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000155</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
-       "      <td>685</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001251</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001406</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.889610</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000040</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000044</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.916667</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
-       "      <td>2725</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.004977</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.006384</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.779685</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000047</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000091</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.520000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
-       "      <td>8284</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.015131</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.021514</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.703286</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>52</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000190</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000281</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.675325</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
-       "      <td>18259</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.033350</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.054864</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.607863</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>133</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000486</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000767</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.633333</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>5</th>\n",
-       "      <td>33119</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.060491</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.115355</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.524392</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7</td>\n",
+       "      <td>416</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001520</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002287</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.664537</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
-       "      <td>49632</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.090652</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.206007</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.440043</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8</td>\n",
+       "      <td>952</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.003478</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.005764</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.603295</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>7</th>\n",
-       "      <td>63488</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.115960</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.321967</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.360160</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2049</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.007485</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.013249</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.564930</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>8</th>\n",
-       "      <td>70825</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.129361</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.451328</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.286623</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3709</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.013549</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.026798</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.505589</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>9</th>\n",
-       "      <td>70328</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.128453</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.579781</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.221554</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6326</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.023109</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.049907</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.463036</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>10</th>\n",
-       "      <td>63452</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.115894</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.695675</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.166592</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9584</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.035010</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.084917</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.412286</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>11</th>\n",
-       "      <td>52102</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.095163</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.790838</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.120332</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>13434</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.049074</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.133991</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.366249</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>12</th>\n",
-       "      <td>40090</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.073224</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.864062</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.084744</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>17387</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.063514</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.197505</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.321582</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>13</th>\n",
-       "      <td>28720</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.052457</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.916519</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.057235</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>21372</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.078071</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.275576</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.283302</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>14</th>\n",
-       "      <td>18923</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.034563</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.951081</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.036340</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>23833</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.087061</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.362637</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.240078</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>15</th>\n",
-       "      <td>11917</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.021766</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.972847</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.022374</td>\n",
+       "      <td>17</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25548</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.093326</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.455963</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.204679</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>16</th>\n",
-       "      <td>6945</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.012685</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.985532</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.012871</td>\n",
+       "      <td>18</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25435</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.092913</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.548877</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.169279</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>17</th>\n",
-       "      <td>3933</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.007184</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.992716</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.007236</td>\n",
+       "      <td>19</td>\n",
+       "      <td>24410</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.089169</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.638046</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.139753</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>18</th>\n",
-       "      <td>2095</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.003826</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.996542</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.003840</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>22014</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.080416</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.718462</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.111929</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>19</th>\n",
-       "      <td>1028</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001878</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.998420</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001881</td>\n",
+       "      <td>21</td>\n",
+       "      <td>19212</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.070181</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.788643</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.088989</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>20</th>\n",
-       "      <td>446</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000815</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999235</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000815</td>\n",
+       "      <td>22</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15967</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.058327</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.846970</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.068865</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>21</th>\n",
-       "      <td>222</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000405</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999640</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000406</td>\n",
+       "      <td>23</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12496</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.045647</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.892617</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.051139</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>22</th>\n",
-       "      <td>112</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000205</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999845</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000205</td>\n",
+       "      <td>24</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9255</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.033808</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.926426</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.036493</td>\n",
+       "      <td>27.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>23</th>\n",
-       "      <td>53</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000097</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999942</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000097</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6781</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.024771</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.951196</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.026042</td>\n",
+       "      <td>38.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>24</th>\n",
-       "      <td>19</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000035</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999976</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000035</td>\n",
+       "      <td>26</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4850</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.017717</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.968913</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.018285</td>\n",
+       "      <td>55.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>25</th>\n",
-       "      <td>6</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000011</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999987</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000011</td>\n",
+       "      <td>27</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3344</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.012216</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.981129</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.012450</td>\n",
+       "      <td>80.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>26</th>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000009</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999996</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000009</td>\n",
+       "      <td>28</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2025</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.007397</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.988526</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.007483</td>\n",
+       "      <td>134.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>27</th>\n",
+       "      <td>29</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1238</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.004522</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.993048</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.004554</td>\n",
+       "      <td>220.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>28</th>\n",
+       "      <td>30</td>\n",
+       "      <td>810</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002959</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.996007</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002971</td>\n",
+       "      <td>337.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>29</th>\n",
+       "      <td>31</td>\n",
+       "      <td>457</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001669</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.997677</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001673</td>\n",
+       "      <td>598.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>30</th>\n",
+       "      <td>32</td>\n",
+       "      <td>267</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000975</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.998652</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000977</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1024.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>31</th>\n",
+       "      <td>33</td>\n",
+       "      <td>155</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000566</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999218</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000567</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1765.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>32</th>\n",
+       "      <td>34</td>\n",
+       "      <td>99</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000362</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999580</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000362</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2764.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>33</th>\n",
+       "      <td>35</td>\n",
+       "      <td>46</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000168</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999748</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000168</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5950.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>34</th>\n",
+       "      <td>36</td>\n",
+       "      <td>30</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000110</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999858</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000110</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9124.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>35</th>\n",
+       "      <td>37</td>\n",
+       "      <td>22</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000080</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999938</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000080</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12442.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>36</th>\n",
+       "      <td>38</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000022</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999960</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000022</td>\n",
+       "      <td>45623.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>37</th>\n",
+       "      <td>39</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999974</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
+       "      <td>68436.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>38</th>\n",
+       "      <td>40</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999989</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
+       "      <td>68437.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>39</th>\n",
+       "      <td>41</td>\n",
        "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999996</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
+       "      <td>136875.0</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>40</th>\n",
+       "      <td>42</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "      <td>273750.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
        "</div>"
       ],
       "text/plain": [
-       "     freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay\n",
-       "0      85  0.000155  0.000155    1.000000\n",
-       "1     685  0.001251  0.001406    0.889610\n",
-       "2    2725  0.004977  0.006384    0.779685\n",
-       "3    8284  0.015131  0.021514    0.703286\n",
-       "4   18259  0.033350  0.054864    0.607863\n",
-       "5   33119  0.060491  0.115355    0.524392\n",
-       "6   49632  0.090652  0.206007    0.440043\n",
-       "7   63488  0.115960  0.321967    0.360160\n",
-       "8   70825  0.129361  0.451328    0.286623\n",
-       "9   70328  0.128453  0.579781    0.221554\n",
-       "10  63452  0.115894  0.695675    0.166592\n",
-       "11  52102  0.095163  0.790838    0.120332\n",
-       "12  40090  0.073224  0.864062    0.084744\n",
-       "13  28720  0.052457  0.916519    0.057235\n",
-       "14  18923  0.034563  0.951081    0.036340\n",
-       "15  11917  0.021766  0.972847    0.022374\n",
-       "16   6945  0.012685  0.985532    0.012871\n",
-       "17   3933  0.007184  0.992716    0.007236\n",
-       "18   2095  0.003826  0.996542    0.003840\n",
-       "19   1028  0.001878  0.998420    0.001881\n",
-       "20    446  0.000815  0.999235    0.000815\n",
-       "21    222  0.000405  0.999640    0.000406\n",
-       "22    112  0.000205  0.999845    0.000205\n",
-       "23     53  0.000097  0.999942    0.000097\n",
-       "24     19  0.000035  0.999976    0.000035\n",
-       "25      6  0.000011  0.999987    0.000011\n",
-       "26      5  0.000009  0.999996    0.000009\n",
-       "27      2  0.000004  1.000000    0.000004"
+       "    beds   freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay  1_in_n_delay\n",
+       "0      2      1  0.000004  0.000004    1.000000           1.0\n",
+       "1      3     11  0.000040  0.000044    0.916667           1.0\n",
+       "2      4     13  0.000047  0.000091    0.520000           2.0\n",
+       "3      5     52  0.000190  0.000281    0.675325           1.0\n",
+       "4      6    133  0.000486  0.000767    0.633333           2.0\n",
+       "5      7    416  0.001520  0.002287    0.664537           2.0\n",
+       "6      8    952  0.003478  0.005764    0.603295           2.0\n",
+       "7      9   2049  0.007485  0.013249    0.564930           2.0\n",
+       "8     10   3709  0.013549  0.026798    0.505589           2.0\n",
+       "9     11   6326  0.023109  0.049907    0.463036           2.0\n",
+       "10    12   9584  0.035010  0.084917    0.412286           2.0\n",
+       "11    13  13434  0.049074  0.133991    0.366249           3.0\n",
+       "12    14  17387  0.063514  0.197505    0.321582           3.0\n",
+       "13    15  21372  0.078071  0.275576    0.283302           4.0\n",
+       "14    16  23833  0.087061  0.362637    0.240078           4.0\n",
+       "15    17  25548  0.093326  0.455963    0.204679           5.0\n",
+       "16    18  25435  0.092913  0.548877    0.169279           6.0\n",
+       "17    19  24410  0.089169  0.638046    0.139753           7.0\n",
+       "18    20  22014  0.080416  0.718462    0.111929           9.0\n",
+       "19    21  19212  0.070181  0.788643    0.088989          11.0\n",
+       "20    22  15967  0.058327  0.846970    0.068865          15.0\n",
+       "21    23  12496  0.045647  0.892617    0.051139          20.0\n",
+       "22    24   9255  0.033808  0.926426    0.036493          27.0\n",
+       "23    25   6781  0.024771  0.951196    0.026042          38.0\n",
+       "24    26   4850  0.017717  0.968913    0.018285          55.0\n",
+       "25    27   3344  0.012216  0.981129    0.012450          80.0\n",
+       "26    28   2025  0.007397  0.988526    0.007483         134.0\n",
+       "27    29   1238  0.004522  0.993048    0.004554         220.0\n",
+       "28    30    810  0.002959  0.996007    0.002971         337.0\n",
+       "29    31    457  0.001669  0.997677    0.001673         598.0\n",
+       "30    32    267  0.000975  0.998652    0.000977        1024.0\n",
+       "31    33    155  0.000566  0.999218    0.000567        1765.0\n",
+       "32    34     99  0.000362  0.999580    0.000362        2764.0\n",
+       "33    35     46  0.000168  0.999748    0.000168        5950.0\n",
+       "34    36     30  0.000110  0.999858    0.000110        9124.0\n",
+       "35    37     22  0.000080  0.999938    0.000080       12442.0\n",
+       "36    38      6  0.000022  0.999960    0.000022       45623.0\n",
+       "37    39      4  0.000015  0.999974    0.000015       68436.0\n",
+       "38    40      4  0.000015  0.999989    0.000015       68437.0\n",
+       "39    41      2  0.000007  0.999996    0.000007      136875.0\n",
+       "40    42      1  0.000004  1.000000    0.000004      273750.0"
       ]
      },
-     "execution_count": 17,
+     "execution_count": 16,
      "metadata": {},
      "output_type": "execute_result"
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "df"
+    "# Calculate the combined occupancy from each timepoint in the audit\n",
+    "combined_audit = [\n",
+    "    {\"pooled_occupancy\": b[\"asu_occupancy\"] + b[\"rehab_occupancy\"]}\n",
+    "    for b in base_audit\n",
+    "]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Hijack the get_occupancy_freq() method from runner to calculate stats\n",
+    "pooled_results = base_runner.get_occupancy_freq(combined_audit, unit=\"pooled\")\n",
+    "pooled_results"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "Get probability of delay and 1 in every n patients delayed from 22 and 26 pooled beds, to use in Table 3 below."
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 18,
+   "execution_count": 17,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
-     "data": {
-      "text/plain": [
-       "np.float64(0.0002045979741147027)"
-      ]
-     },
-     "execution_count": 18,
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
+     "name": "stdout",
+     "output_type": "stream",
+     "text": [
+      "0.06886542625227508 15.0\n"
+     ]
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "df.loc[22][\"prob_delay\"]"
+    "pdelay_pooling_22 = pooled_results[\n",
+    "    pooled_results[\"beds\"] == 22][\"prob_delay\"].item()\n",
+    "npatients_pooling_22 = pooled_results[\n",
+    "    pooled_results[\"beds\"] == 22][\"1_in_n_delay\"].item()\n",
+    "print(pdelay_pooling_22, npatients_pooling_22)"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 19,
+   "execution_count": 18,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
-     "data": {
-      "text/plain": [
-       "np.float64(9.132453451884755e-06)"
-      ]
-     },
-     "execution_count": 19,
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
+     "name": "stdout",
+     "output_type": "stream",
+     "text": [
+      "0.01828532649675765 55.0\n"
+     ]
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "df.loc[26][\"prob_delay\"]"
+    "pdelay_pooling_26 = pooled_results[\n",
+    "    pooled_results[\"beds\"] == 26][\"prob_delay\"].item()\n",
+    "npatients_pooling_26 = pooled_results[\n",
+    "    pooled_results[\"beds\"] == 26][\"1_in_n_delay\"].item()\n",
+    "print(pdelay_pooling_26, npatients_pooling_26)"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -4911,7 +5093,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 20,
+   "execution_count": 19,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
@@ -5111,162 +5293,294 @@
     "\n",
     "        # Get probability of only the ASU, or only rehab, having delays\n",
     "        p_asu_only = self.calculate_only_unit_overflow(unit=\"asu\")\n",
-    "        print(f\"p_asu_only {p_asu_only}\")\n",
+    "        #print(f\"p_asu_only {p_asu_only}\")\n",
     "        p_rehab_only = self.calculate_only_unit_overflow(unit=\"rehab\")\n",
-    "        print(f\"p_rehab_only {p_rehab_only}\")\n",
+    "        #print(f\"p_rehab_only {p_rehab_only}\")\n",
     "\n",
     "        # Find combinations of patients that would cause delays\n",
     "        asu_comb = self.get_delay_combinations(unit=\"asu\")\n",
-    "        print(f\"asu combinations: {asu_comb}\")\n",
+    "        #print(f\"asu combinations: {asu_comb}\")\n",
     "        rehab_comb = self.get_delay_combinations(unit=\"rehab\")\n",
-    "        print(f\"rehab combinations: {rehab_comb}\")\n",
+    "        #print(f\"rehab combinations: {rehab_comb}\")\n",
     "\n",
     "        # Convert those to probabilities\n",
     "        p_asu_comb = self.calculate_combination_probability(asu_comb)\n",
     "        p_rehab_comb = self.calculate_combination_probability(rehab_comb)\n",
     "\n",
-    "        # Combine the only + combination probabilities for each unit\n",
-    "        return {\"asu\": p_asu_only + p_asu_comb,\n",
-    "                \"rehab\": p_rehab_only + p_rehab_comb}"
+    "        # Create dictionary with the bed numbers, and the combined only +\n",
+    "        # combination probabilities for each unit\n",
+    "        pool_results = {\n",
+    "            \"dedicated_acute\": self.asu_beds,\n",
+    "            \"dedicated_rehab\": self.rehab_beds,\n",
+    "            \"pooled\": self.pooled_beds,\n",
+    "            \"pdelay_acute\": p_asu_only + p_asu_comb,\n",
+    "            \"pdelay_rehab\": p_rehab_only + p_rehab_comb}\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Calculate 1 in every n patients delays\n",
+    "        pool_results[\"1_in_n_delay_acute\"] = (\n",
+    "            round(1 / pool_results[\"pdelay_acute\"]))\n",
+    "        pool_results[\"1_in_n_delay_rehab\"] = (\n",
+    "            round(1 / pool_results[\"pdelay_rehab\"]))\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        # Round the probability of delay (after calculation, so doesn't impact)\n",
+    "        pool_results[\"pdelay_acute\"] = round(pool_results[\"pdelay_acute\"], 3)\n",
+    "        pool_results[\"pdelay_rehab\"] = round(pool_results[\"pdelay_rehab\"], 3)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        return pool_results"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "Create list with the 22 + 26 pooled bed results."
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 21,
+   "execution_count": 20,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "pooled_delay = PooledDelay(base_results=base_overall)"
+    "def create_pool_result(pooled_value, pdelay_value, npatients_value):\n",
+    "    \"\"\"\n",
+    "    Create a dictionary representing a pool result entry.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Parameters\n",
+    "    ----------\n",
+    "    pooled_value : int\n",
+    "        The value for the 'pooled' key.\n",
+    "    pdelay_value : float or int\n",
+    "        The probability of delay (for acute and rehab).\n",
+    "    npatients_value : int\n",
+    "        1 in every n patients delayed (for acute and rehab).\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Returns\n",
+    "    -------\n",
+    "    dict\n",
+    "        A dictionary with keys 'dedicated_acute', 'dedicated_rehab', 'pooled', \n",
+    "        'pdelay_acute', and 'pdelay_rehab'.\n",
+    "    \"\"\"\n",
+    "    return {\n",
+    "        \"dedicated_acute\": 0,\n",
+    "        \"dedicated_rehab\": 0,\n",
+    "        \"pooled\": pooled_value,\n",
+    "        \"pdelay_acute\": pdelay_value,\n",
+    "        \"pdelay_rehab\": pdelay_value,\n",
+    "        \"1_in_n_delay_acute\": npatients_value,\n",
+    "        \"1_in_n_delay_rehab\": npatients_value\n",
+    "    }\n",
+    "\n",
+    "\n",
+    "pool_result_list = [\n",
+    "    create_pool_result(22, pdelay_pooling_22, npatients_pooling_22),\n",
+    "    create_pool_result(26, pdelay_pooling_26, npatients_pooling_26)\n",
+    "]"
    ]
   },
   {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 22,
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
    "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "name": "stdout",
-     "output_type": "stream",
-     "text": [
-      "p_asu_only 0.03366690305206313\n",
-      "p_rehab_only 0.10348735694418382\n",
-      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}]\n",
-      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}]\n"
-     ]
-    },
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/plain": [
-       "{'asu': np.float64(0.060365052325014074),\n",
-       " 'rehab': np.float64(0.13018550621713476)}"
-      ]
-     },
-     "execution_count": 22,
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
-    }
-   ],
    "source": [
-    "pooled_delay.calculate_delay(asu_beds=12, rehab_beds=12, pooled_beds=2)"
+    "Calculate results from other pooling scenarios and add to the list, then display as a dataframe."
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 23,
+   "execution_count": 21,
    "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "name": "stdout",
-     "output_type": "stream",
-     "text": [
-      "asu 14 rehab 12 pooled 0\n",
-      "p_asu_only 0.03366690305206313\n",
-      "p_rehab_only 0.26561941446758824\n",
-      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}]\n",
-      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}]\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.046670319634703195), 'rehab': np.float64(0.2786228310502283)}\n",
-      "------------------\n",
-      "asu 11 rehab 11 pooled 4\n",
-      "p_asu_only 0.01524126873084381\n",
-      "p_rehab_only 0.056812888458539226\n",
-      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 15, 'rehab': 11}, {'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}, {'asu': 11, 'rehab': 15}]\n",
-      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 15, 'asu': 11}, {'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}, {'rehab': 11, 'asu': 15}]\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.05059883634119389), 'rehab': np.float64(0.0921704560688893)}\n",
-      "------------------\n",
-      "asu 11 rehab 10 pooled 5\n",
-      "p_asu_only 0.006042192428014429\n",
-      "p_rehab_only 0.056812888458539226\n",
-      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 16, 'rehab': 10}, {'asu': 15, 'rehab': 11}, {'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}, {'asu': 11, 'rehab': 15}]\n",
-      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 15, 'asu': 11}, {'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}, {'rehab': 11, 'asu': 15}, {'rehab': 10, 'asu': 16}]\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.042935678612205756), 'rehab': np.float64(0.09370637464273054)}\n",
-      "------------------\n",
-      "asu 10 rehab 10 pooled 6\n",
-      "p_asu_only 0.006042192428014429\n",
-      "p_rehab_only 0.028141824165467778\n",
-      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 16, 'rehab': 10}, {'asu': 15, 'rehab': 11}, {'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}, {'asu': 11, 'rehab': 15}, {'asu': 10, 'rehab': 16}]\n",
-      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 16, 'asu': 10}, {'rehab': 15, 'asu': 11}, {'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}, {'rehab': 11, 'asu': 15}, {'rehab': 10, 'asu': 16}]\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.047448536242363594), 'rehab': np.float64(0.06954816797981694)}\n",
-      "------------------\n",
-      "asu 10 rehab 9 pooled 7\n",
-      "p_asu_only 0.0021562354079356144\n",
-      "p_rehab_only 0.028141824165467778\n",
-      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 17, 'rehab': 9}, {'asu': 16, 'rehab': 10}, {'asu': 15, 'rehab': 11}, {'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}, {'asu': 11, 'rehab': 15}, {'asu': 10, 'rehab': 16}]\n",
-      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 16, 'asu': 10}, {'rehab': 15, 'asu': 11}, {'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}, {'rehab': 11, 'asu': 15}, {'rehab': 10, 'asu': 16}, {'rehab': 9, 'asu': 17}]\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.044322156698984594), 'rehab': np.float64(0.07030774545651676)}\n",
-      "------------------\n",
-      "asu 9 rehab 9 pooled 8\n",
-      "p_asu_only 0.0021562354079356144\n",
-      "p_rehab_only 0.012434220724338524\n",
-      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 17, 'rehab': 9}, {'asu': 16, 'rehab': 10}, {'asu': 15, 'rehab': 11}, {'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}, {'asu': 11, 'rehab': 15}, {'asu': 10, 'rehab': 16}, {'asu': 9, 'rehab': 17}]\n",
-      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 17, 'asu': 9}, {'rehab': 16, 'asu': 10}, {'rehab': 15, 'asu': 11}, {'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}, {'rehab': 11, 'asu': 15}, {'rehab': 10, 'asu': 16}, {'rehab': 9, 'asu': 17}]\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.047299752048539444), 'rehab': np.float64(0.05757773736494235)}\n",
-      "------------------\n",
-      "asu 9 rehab 8 pooled 9\n",
-      "p_asu_only 0.0006415995930026479\n",
-      "p_rehab_only 0.012434220724338524\n",
-      "asu combinations: [{'asu': 18, 'rehab': 8}, {'asu': 17, 'rehab': 9}, {'asu': 16, 'rehab': 10}, {'asu': 15, 'rehab': 11}, {'asu': 14, 'rehab': 12}, {'asu': 13, 'rehab': 13}, {'asu': 12, 'rehab': 14}, {'asu': 11, 'rehab': 15}, {'asu': 10, 'rehab': 16}, {'asu': 9, 'rehab': 17}]\n",
-      "rehab combinations: [{'rehab': 17, 'asu': 9}, {'rehab': 16, 'asu': 10}, {'rehab': 15, 'asu': 11}, {'rehab': 14, 'asu': 12}, {'rehab': 13, 'asu': 13}, {'rehab': 12, 'asu': 14}, {'rehab': 11, 'asu': 15}, {'rehab': 10, 'asu': 16}, {'rehab': 9, 'asu': 17}, {'rehab': 8, 'asu': 18}]\n",
-      "{'asu': np.float64(0.046102869848418514), 'rehab': np.float64(0.05789549097975438)}\n",
-      "------------------\n"
-     ]
-    }
-   ],
+   "outputs": [],
    "source": [
+    "# Create instance of class\n",
+    "pooled_delay = PooledDelay(base_results=base_overall)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Loop through other pooling scenarios\n",
     "for beds in [(14, 12, 0), (11, 11, 4), (11, 10, 5),\n",
     "             (10, 10, 6), (10, 9, 7), (9, 9, 8), (9, 8, 9)]:\n",
-    "    print(f\"asu {beds[0]} rehab {beds[1]} pooled {beds[2]}\")\n",
-    "    print(pooled_delay.calculate_delay(\n",
-    "        asu_beds=beds[0], rehab_beds=beds[1], pooled_beds=beds[2]))\n",
-    "    print(\"------------------\")"
+    "    pool_result_list.append(pooled_delay.calculate_delay(\n",
+    "        asu_beds=beds[0], rehab_beds=beds[1], pooled_beds=beds[2]))"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "markdown",
    "metadata": {},
    "source": [
-    "14 12 0 matches my base overall 14 and 12 (which it should as no pooling basically)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "11 11 4 matches my manual calculation below for ASU -"
+    "### Table 3"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 24,
+   "execution_count": 22,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
      "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<div>\n",
+       "<style scoped>\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
+       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "\n",
+       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
+       "        text-align: right;\n",
+       "    }\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
+       "      <th></th>\n",
+       "      <th>dedicated_acute</th>\n",
+       "      <th>dedicated_rehab</th>\n",
+       "      <th>pooled</th>\n",
+       "      <th>pdelay_acute</th>\n",
+       "      <th>pdelay_rehab</th>\n",
+       "      <th>1_in_n_delay_acute</th>\n",
+       "      <th>1_in_n_delay_rehab</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>0</th>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>22</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.069</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.069</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>1</th>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>26</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.018</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.018</td>\n",
+       "      <td>55</td>\n",
+       "      <td>55</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>2</th>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.047</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.279</td>\n",
+       "      <td>21</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>3</th>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.051</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.092</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>4</th>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.043</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.094</td>\n",
+       "      <td>23</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>5</th>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.047</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
+       "      <td>21</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>6</th>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.044</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
+       "      <td>23</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>7</th>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.047</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.058</td>\n",
+       "      <td>21</td>\n",
+       "      <td>17</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th>8</th>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.046</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.058</td>\n",
+       "      <td>22</td>\n",
+       "      <td>17</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n",
+       "</div>"
+      ],
       "text/plain": [
-       "0.024341193866000005"
+       "   dedicated_acute  dedicated_rehab  pooled  pdelay_acute  pdelay_rehab  \\\n",
+       "0                0                0      22         0.069         0.069   \n",
+       "1                0                0      26         0.018         0.018   \n",
+       "2               14               12       0         0.047         0.279   \n",
+       "3               11               11       4         0.051         0.092   \n",
+       "4               11               10       5         0.043         0.094   \n",
+       "5               10               10       6         0.047         0.070   \n",
+       "6               10                9       7         0.044         0.070   \n",
+       "7                9                9       8         0.047         0.058   \n",
+       "8                9                8       9         0.046         0.058   \n",
+       "\n",
+       "   1_in_n_delay_acute  1_in_n_delay_rehab  \n",
+       "0                  15                  15  \n",
+       "1                  55                  55  \n",
+       "2                  21                   4  \n",
+       "3                  20                  11  \n",
+       "4                  23                  11  \n",
+       "5                  21                  14  \n",
+       "6                  23                  14  \n",
+       "7                  21                  17  \n",
+       "8                  22                  17  "
       ]
      },
-     "execution_count": 24,
      "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
+     "output_type": "display_data"
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "(0.012664*(1-0.150691))+(0.012664*0.150691)+(0.022350*0.111069)+(0.038513*0.077523)+(0.061437*0.051057)+(0.094876*0.032383)"
+    "# Convert to a dataframe\n",
+    "tab2 = pd.DataFrame(pool_result_list)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "for delay_type in [\"acute\", \"rehab\"]:\n",
+    "    # Round probabilities to 3 decimal places\n",
+    "    tab2[f\"pdelay_{delay_type}\"] = round(tab2[f\"pdelay_{delay_type}\"], 3)\n",
+    "    # Convert 1-in-n counts to integers\n",
+    "    tab2[f\"1_in_n_delay_{delay_type}\"] = (\n",
+    "        tab2[f\"1_in_n_delay_{delay_type}\"].astype(int))\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Display and save to csv\n",
+    "display(tab2)\n",
+    "tab2.to_csv(\n",
+    "    os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"pooling.csv\"), index=False)"
    ]
   }
  ],
diff --git a/outputs/delay_scenario1.csv b/outputs/delay_scenario1.csv
index 00845d1..ce434f7 100644
--- a/outputs/delay_scenario1.csv
+++ b/outputs/delay_scenario1.csv
@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 unit,beds,prob_delay_current,1_in_n_delay_current,prob_delay_5%,1_in_n_delay_5%
-asu,9,0.19,5,,
-asu,10,0.14,7,0.16,6.0
-asu,11,0.09,11,0.11,9.0
-asu,12,0.06,16,0.08,13.0
-asu,13,0.04,26,0.05,20.0
-asu,14,0.02,45,0.03,33.0
-rehab,10,0.2,5,,
-rehab,12,0.11,9,0.13,8.0
-rehab,13,0.08,13,0.09,11.0
-rehab,14,0.05,20,0.06,15.0
-rehab,15,0.03,31,0.04,23.0
-rehab,16,0.02,52,0.03,37.0
+asu,9,0.19,5.0,,
+asu,10,0.14,7.0,0.16,6.0
+asu,11,0.09,11.0,0.11,9.0
+asu,12,0.06,16.0,0.08,13.0
+asu,13,0.04,26.0,0.05,20.0
+asu,14,0.02,45.0,0.03,33.0
+rehab,10,0.2,5.0,,
+rehab,12,0.11,9.0,0.13,8.0
+rehab,13,0.08,13.0,0.09,11.0
+rehab,14,0.05,20.0,0.06,15.0
+rehab,15,0.03,31.0,0.04,23.0
+rehab,16,0.02,52.0,0.03,37.0
diff --git a/outputs/delay_scenario4.csv b/outputs/delay_scenario4.csv
index f1e1154..26b30c6 100644
--- a/outputs/delay_scenario4.csv
+++ b/outputs/delay_scenario4.csv
@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 unit,beds,prob_delay_current,1_in_n_delay_current,prob_delay_no_complex_neuro,1_in_n_delay_no_complex_neuro
-asu,10,0.14,7,0.09,11
-asu,11,0.09,11,0.06,18
-asu,12,0.06,16,0.03,31
-asu,13,0.04,26,0.02,55
-asu,14,0.02,45,0.01,111
-asu,15,0.01,79,0.0,225
-rehab,12,0.11,9,0.05,20
-rehab,13,0.08,13,0.03,32
-rehab,14,0.05,20,0.02,57
-rehab,15,0.03,31,0.01,101
-rehab,16,0.02,52,0.0,212
+asu,10,0.14,7.0,0.09,11.0
+asu,11,0.09,11.0,0.06,18.0
+asu,12,0.06,16.0,0.03,31.0
+asu,13,0.04,26.0,0.02,55.0
+asu,14,0.02,45.0,0.01,111.0
+asu,15,0.01,79.0,0.0,225.0
+rehab,12,0.11,9.0,0.05,20.0
+rehab,13,0.08,13.0,0.03,32.0
+rehab,14,0.05,20.0,0.02,57.0
+rehab,15,0.03,31.0,0.01,101.0
+rehab,16,0.02,52.0,0.0,212.0
diff --git a/outputs/pooling.csv b/outputs/pooling.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..cfbe0ae
--- /dev/null
+++ b/outputs/pooling.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+dedicated_acute,dedicated_rehab,pooled,pdelay_acute,pdelay_rehab,1_in_n_delay_acute,1_in_n_delay_rehab
+0,0,22,0.069,0.069,15,15
+0,0,26,0.018,0.018,55,55
+14,12,0,0.047,0.279,21,4
+11,11,4,0.051,0.092,20,11
+11,10,5,0.043,0.094,23,11
+10,10,6,0.047,0.07,21,14
+10,9,7,0.044,0.07,23,14
+9,9,8,0.047,0.058,21,17
+9,8,9,0.046,0.058,22,17

From 46378f40ed4a4598caffa31fd7622d30008062be Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 20 May 2025 15:44:36 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 17/24] fix(analysis): corrected tab 3 to use 14 12 0 values
 from tab 2 rather than entering into calculations, then compared results to
 those when run using students function, and found no change - as students got
 closer results, any differences i have now would presumably be down to model
 rather than methods here

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb | 687 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++---
 outputs/pooling.csv      |   2 +-
 2 files changed, 636 insertions(+), 53 deletions(-)

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index 0e54b33..48b1565 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -3892,9 +3892,6 @@
     "            df = df[df[\"beds\"].isin(unit_beds)][\n",
     "                [\"beds\", \"prob_delay\", \"1_in_n_delay\"]]\n",
     "\n",
-    "            # Round probability of delay to 2 d.p.\n",
-    "            df[\"prob_delay\"] = round(df[\"prob_delay\"], 2)\n",
-    "\n",
     "            # Rename column to be specific to scenario\n",
     "            df = df.rename(columns={\n",
     "                \"prob_delay\": f\"prob_delay_{scenario_name}\",\n",
@@ -3955,117 +3952,117 @@
        "      <th>0</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.19</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.193202</td>\n",
        "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.21</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.214047</td>\n",
        "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.138199</td>\n",
        "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.160144</td>\n",
        "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.094876</td>\n",
        "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.111319</td>\n",
        "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.061437</td>\n",
        "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.076030</td>\n",
        "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.038513</td>\n",
        "      <td>26.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.048935</td>\n",
        "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>5</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.022350</td>\n",
        "      <td>45.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.030251</td>\n",
        "      <td>33.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.202678</td>\n",
        "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.23</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.226770</td>\n",
        "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>7</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.150691</td>\n",
        "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.18</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.176401</td>\n",
        "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>8</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.111069</td>\n",
        "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.131936</td>\n",
        "      <td>8.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>9</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.077523</td>\n",
        "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.094953</td>\n",
        "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>10</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.051057</td>\n",
        "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.064930</td>\n",
        "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>11</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.032383</td>\n",
        "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.042869</td>\n",
        "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>12</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.019416</td>\n",
        "      <td>52.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.026822</td>\n",
        "      <td>37.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
@@ -4074,19 +4071,19 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  1_in_n_delay_current  prob_delay_5%  \\\n",
-       "0     asu     9                0.19                   5.0           0.21   \n",
-       "1     asu    10                0.14                   7.0           0.16   \n",
-       "2     asu    11                0.09                  11.0           0.11   \n",
-       "3     asu    12                0.06                  16.0           0.08   \n",
-       "4     asu    13                0.04                  26.0           0.05   \n",
-       "5     asu    14                0.02                  45.0           0.03   \n",
-       "6   rehab    10                0.20                   5.0           0.23   \n",
-       "7   rehab    11                0.15                   7.0           0.18   \n",
-       "8   rehab    12                0.11                   9.0           0.13   \n",
-       "9   rehab    13                0.08                  13.0           0.09   \n",
-       "10  rehab    14                0.05                  20.0           0.06   \n",
-       "11  rehab    15                0.03                  31.0           0.04   \n",
-       "12  rehab    16                0.02                  52.0           0.03   \n",
+       "0     asu     9            0.193202                   5.0       0.214047   \n",
+       "1     asu    10            0.138199                   7.0       0.160144   \n",
+       "2     asu    11            0.094876                  11.0       0.111319   \n",
+       "3     asu    12            0.061437                  16.0       0.076030   \n",
+       "4     asu    13            0.038513                  26.0       0.048935   \n",
+       "5     asu    14            0.022350                  45.0       0.030251   \n",
+       "6   rehab    10            0.202678                   5.0       0.226770   \n",
+       "7   rehab    11            0.150691                   7.0       0.176401   \n",
+       "8   rehab    12            0.111069                   9.0       0.131936   \n",
+       "9   rehab    13            0.077523                  13.0       0.094953   \n",
+       "10  rehab    14            0.051057                  20.0       0.064930   \n",
+       "11  rehab    15            0.032383                  31.0       0.042869   \n",
+       "12  rehab    16            0.019416                  52.0       0.026822   \n",
        "\n",
        "    1_in_n_delay_5%  \n",
        "0               5.0  \n",
@@ -4309,6 +4306,12 @@
    "source": [
     "adj_full_tab_2 = full_tab2.copy()\n",
     "\n",
+    "# Round probability of delay to 2 d.p.\n",
+    "adj_full_tab_2[\"prob_delay_current\"] = round(\n",
+    "    adj_full_tab_2[\"prob_delay_current\"], 2)\n",
+    "adj_full_tab_2[\"prob_delay_5%\"] = round(\n",
+    "    adj_full_tab_2[\"prob_delay_5%\"], 2)\n",
+    "\n",
     "# Drop the result for ASU beds 9 and rehab beds 10 for the scenario\n",
     "adj_full_tab_2.loc[(adj_full_tab_2[\"unit\"] == \"asu\") &\n",
     "                   (adj_full_tab_2[\"beds\"] == 9),\n",
@@ -4547,6 +4550,11 @@
     "                            asu_beds=list(range(10,16)),\n",
     "                            rehab_beds=list(range(12,17)))\n",
     "\n",
+    "# Round the probability of delay to 2 d.p.\n",
+    "sup_tab1[\"prob_delay_current\"] = round(sup_tab1[\"prob_delay_current\"], 2)\n",
+    "sup_tab1[\"prob_delay_no_complex_neuro\"] = round(\n",
+    "    sup_tab1[\"prob_delay_no_complex_neuro\"], 2)\n",
+    "\n",
     "# Display and save to csv\n",
     "display(sup_tab1)\n",
     "sup_tab1.to_csv(os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"delay_scenario4.csv\"), index=False)"
@@ -5382,7 +5390,7 @@
    "cell_type": "markdown",
    "metadata": {},
    "source": [
-    "Calculate results from other pooling scenarios and add to the list, then display as a dataframe."
+    "Add result for 14 acute 12 rehab 0 pooled, as in table 2 above."
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -5390,13 +5398,41 @@
    "execution_count": 21,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "# Extract result for 14 acute and 12 rehab beds\n",
+    "acute14 = full_tab2[(full_tab2[\"unit\"] == \"asu\") & (full_tab2[\"beds\"] == 14)]\n",
+    "rehab12 = full_tab2[(full_tab2[\"unit\"] == \"rehab\") & (full_tab2[\"beds\"] == 12)]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "pool_result_list.append({\n",
+    "    \"dedicated_acute\": 14,\n",
+    "    \"dedicated_rehab\": 12,\n",
+    "    \"pooled\": 0,\n",
+    "    \"pdelay_acute\": acute14[\"prob_delay_current\"].item(),\n",
+    "    \"pdelay_rehab\": rehab12[\"prob_delay_current\"].item(),\n",
+    "    \"1_in_n_delay_acute\": acute14[\"1_in_n_delay_current\"].item(),\n",
+    "    \"1_in_n_delay_rehab\":rehab12[\"1_in_n_delay_current\"].item()\n",
+    "})"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "Calculate results from other pooling scenarios and add to the list, then display as a dataframe."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 22,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
    "source": [
     "# Create instance of class\n",
     "pooled_delay = PooledDelay(base_results=base_overall)\n",
     "\n",
     "# Loop through other pooling scenarios\n",
-    "for beds in [(14, 12, 0), (11, 11, 4), (11, 10, 5),\n",
-    "             (10, 10, 6), (10, 9, 7), (9, 9, 8), (9, 8, 9)]:\n",
+    "for beds in [(11, 11, 4), (11, 10, 5), (10, 10, 6), (10, 9, 7),\n",
+    "             (9, 9, 8), (9, 8, 9)]:\n",
     "    pool_result_list.append(pooled_delay.calculate_delay(\n",
     "        asu_beds=beds[0], rehab_beds=beds[1], pooled_beds=beds[2]))"
    ]
@@ -5410,7 +5446,7 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 22,
+   "execution_count": 23,
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [
     {
@@ -5469,10 +5505,10 @@
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.047</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.279</td>\n",
-       "      <td>21</td>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.022</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.111</td>\n",
+       "      <td>45</td>\n",
+       "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
@@ -5542,7 +5578,7 @@
        "   dedicated_acute  dedicated_rehab  pooled  pdelay_acute  pdelay_rehab  \\\n",
        "0                0                0      22         0.069         0.069   \n",
        "1                0                0      26         0.018         0.018   \n",
-       "2               14               12       0         0.047         0.279   \n",
+       "2               14               12       0         0.022         0.111   \n",
        "3               11               11       4         0.051         0.092   \n",
        "4               11               10       5         0.043         0.094   \n",
        "5               10               10       6         0.047         0.070   \n",
@@ -5553,7 +5589,7 @@
        "   1_in_n_delay_acute  1_in_n_delay_rehab  \n",
        "0                  15                  15  \n",
        "1                  55                  55  \n",
-       "2                  21                   4  \n",
+       "2                  45                   9  \n",
        "3                  20                  11  \n",
        "4                  23                  11  \n",
        "5                  21                  14  \n",
@@ -5582,6 +5618,553 @@
     "tab2.to_csv(\n",
     "    os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"pooling.csv\"), index=False)"
    ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "## Compare to other Python calculation\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Tom shared some previous code from assignment which attempted to reproduce the same paper. To check whether my data is the issue, I applied the student's functions to my raw model data.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "I found that my results did not change - so the differences are related to the model implementation, rather than the calculations here."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 24,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "import numpy as np\n",
+    "import pandas as pd\n",
+    "import itertools\n",
+    "import math\n",
+    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
+    "from collections import Counter"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 25,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "# Number of beds (dedicated acute, dedicated rehab, pooled)\n",
+    "N_BEDS_BASAL = (10, 12, 0)\n",
+    "N_BEDS_INC = (14, 12, 0)\n",
+    "N_BEDS_POOLED_1 = (0, 0, 22)\n",
+    "N_BEDS_POOLED_2 = (0, 0, 26)\n",
+    "N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_1 = (11, 11, 4)\n",
+    "N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_2 = (11, 10, 5)\n",
+    "N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_3 = (10, 10, 6)\n",
+    "N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_4 = (10, 9, 7)\n",
+    "N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_5 = (9, 9, 8)\n",
+    "N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_6 = (9, 8, 9)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 26,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "def calc_p_delay(occupancies, n_beds, include_one_in_every=False):\n",
+    "    '''\n",
+    "    helper function for calculating p(delay) for a given bed number\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Params:\n",
+    "    -------\n",
+    "    occupancies: list of int\n",
+    "        a list containing daily bed occupancies\n",
+    "    n_beds: int\n",
+    "        the number of beds\n",
+    "    included_one_in_every: Boolean\n",
+    "        whether to include 'one in every n patients delayed'\n",
+    "        in the return\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Returns:\n",
+    "    List:\n",
+    "    [number of beds, p(delay), one_in_every]\n",
+    "        if include_one_in_every is true\n",
+    "    [number of beds, p(delay)]\n",
+    "        if include_one_in_every is false\n",
+    "    -------\n",
+    "    '''\n",
+    "    # create a dictionary in the format {number of beds: count}\n",
+    "    # from the occupancies list\n",
+    "    data_dict = Counter(occupancies)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # calculate p(delay) using the Erlang formula: P(N=n) / P(N<=n)\n",
+    "    # P(N=n) - probability that exactly n beds are occupied\n",
+    "    numerator = data_dict[n_beds]\n",
+    "    # P(N<=n) - probability that at most n beds are occupied\n",
+    "    denominator = sum(value for key, value in data_dict.items() if key <= n_beds)\n",
+    "    # compute p(delay)\n",
+    "    p_delay = numerator / denominator\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    if include_one_in_every:\n",
+    "        # one in every n patients delayed\n",
+    "        one_in_every = int(round(1 / p_delay, 0))\n",
+    "        return([n_beds, p_delay, one_in_every])\n",
+    "    else:\n",
+    "        return([n_beds, p_delay])"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "**Complete bed pooling** - with their methods, the result is the same as mine."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 27,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "acute_occupancy_current = [b[\"asu_occupancy\"] for b in base_audit]\n",
+    "rehab_occupancy_current = [b[\"rehab_occupancy\"] for b in base_audit]"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 28,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "name": "stdout",
+     "output_type": "stream",
+     "text": [
+      "[22, 0.0688654262522751, 15] [26, 0.018285326496757653, 55]\n"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "# add acute and rehab occupancies element-wise to obtain the pooled occupancy\n",
+    "pooled_occupancy = np.array(acute_occupancy_current) + \\\n",
+    "    np.array(rehab_occupancy_current)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# [n_beds, p(delay), one_in_every_n_patients_delayed] for 22 pooled beds\n",
+    "result_0_0_22 = calc_p_delay(pooled_occupancy, 22, True)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# [n_beds, p(delay), one_in_every_n_patients_delayed] for 26 pooled beds\n",
+    "result_0_0_26 = calc_p_delay(pooled_occupancy, 26, True)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "print(result_0_0_22, result_0_0_26)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "**Partial bed pooling** - they all match."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 29,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/plain": [
+       "{0: 67,\n",
+       " 1: 570,\n",
+       " 2: 2142,\n",
+       " 3: 6086,\n",
+       " 4: 12600,\n",
+       " 5: 21533,\n",
+       " 6: 30344,\n",
+       " 7: 36799,\n",
+       " 8: 38071,\n",
+       " 9: 35492,\n",
+       " 10: 29459,\n",
+       " 11: 22344,\n",
+       " 12: 15416,\n",
+       " 13: 10051,\n",
+       " 14: 5966,\n",
+       " 15: 3424,\n",
+       " 16: 1752,\n",
+       " 17: 907,\n",
+       " 18: 423,\n",
+       " 19: 176,\n",
+       " 20: 71,\n",
+       " 21: 36,\n",
+       " 22: 13,\n",
+       " 23: 4,\n",
+       " 24: 2,\n",
+       " 25: 1,\n",
+       " 27: 1}"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 29,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "# counter dict for acute bed occupancy \n",
+    "# in the format of {number of beds: count}\n",
+    "dict_acute_occupancy_count = Counter(acute_occupancy_current)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# counter dict for rehab bed occupancy\n",
+    "# in the format of {number of beds: count}\n",
+    "dict_rehab_occupancy_count = Counter(rehab_occupancy_current)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# print sorted dict\n",
+    "dict(sorted(dict_acute_occupancy_count.items(), key=lambda item: item[0]))"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 30,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "# Right-tail cumulative probability of occupancy greater than or equal to n.\n",
+    "# (e.g., P(acute >= n))\n",
+    "def prob_ge(counter, n):\n",
+    "    '''\n",
+    "    helper function for calculating the right-tail cumulative PROBability\n",
+    "    of occupancy for bed numbers Greater than or Equal to n\n",
+    "    (i.e., P(acute >= n))\n",
+    "    '''\n",
+    "    total =  sum(value for value in counter.values())\n",
+    "    cases = sum(value for key, value in counter.items() if key >= n)\n",
+    "    return cases / total\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# PROBability of occupancy EQual to n (e.g., P(rehab = n))\n",
+    "def prob_eq(counter, n):\n",
+    "    '''\n",
+    "    helper function for calculating the PROBability of occupancy\n",
+    "    for bed numbers EQual to n (i.e., P(acute=n))\n",
+    "    '''\n",
+    "    total =  sum(value for value in counter.values())\n",
+    "    case = counter[n]\n",
+    "    return case / total"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 31,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "def calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(a_counter, r_counter, pooling):\n",
+    "    '''\n",
+    "    helper function for calculating p(delay) for partially pooled acute beds\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Params:\n",
+    "    -------\n",
+    "    a_counter: dict\n",
+    "        Counter dict for the acute bed occupancy\n",
+    "    r_counter: dict\n",
+    "        Counter dict for the rehab bed occupancy\n",
+    "    pooling: 3-tuple of int\n",
+    "        (n_beds dedicated to acute, n_beds dedicated to rehab, pooled_beds)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Returns:\n",
+    "    --------\n",
+    "    Tuple:\n",
+    "    (p(delay) for acute beds, one in every n patients delayed)\n",
+    "    \n",
+    "    '''\n",
+    "    a = pooling[0]   # No. beds dedicated acute\n",
+    "    r = pooling[1]   # No. beds dedicated rehab\n",
+    "    p = pooling[2]   # No. beds pooled\n",
+    "    \n",
+    "    x = prob_ge(a_counter, a + p)\n",
+    "    y = sum(prob_eq(a_counter, a + p - i) * prob_ge(r_counter, r + i)\n",
+    "            for i in range(1, p + 1))\n",
+    "    p_delay = x + y\n",
+    "    one_in_every = int(round(1 / (x + y), 0))\n",
+    "    return(p_delay, one_in_every)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "def calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(a_counter, r_counter, pooling):\n",
+    "    '''\n",
+    "    helper function for calculating p(delay) for partially pooled rehab beds\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Params:\n",
+    "    -------\n",
+    "    a_counter: dict\n",
+    "        Counter dict for the acute bed occupancy\n",
+    "    r_counter: dict\n",
+    "        Counter dict for the rehab bed occupancy\n",
+    "    pooling: tuple of int\n",
+    "        (n_beds dedicated to acute, n_beds dedicated to rehab, pooled_beds)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Returns:\n",
+    "    --------\n",
+    "    Tuple:\n",
+    "    (p(delay) for rehab beds, one in every n patients delayed)\n",
+    "    '''    \n",
+    "    a = pooling[0]   # No. beds dedicated acute\n",
+    "    r = pooling[1]   # No. beds dedicated rehab\n",
+    "    p = pooling[2]   # No. beds pooled\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    x = prob_ge(r_counter, r + p)\n",
+    "    y = sum(prob_eq(r_counter, r + p - i) * prob_ge(a_counter, a + i)\n",
+    "           for i in range(1, p + 1))\n",
+    "    p_delay = x + y\n",
+    "    one_in_every = int(round(1 / (x + y), 0))\n",
+    "    return(p_delay, one_in_every)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 32,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "# Partial pooling scenario 1 (11 / 11 / 4)\n",
+    "result_11_11_4_acute = calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_1)\n",
+    "result_11_11_4_rehab = calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_1)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Partial pooling scenario 2 (11 / 10 / 5)\n",
+    "result_11_10_5_acute = calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_2)\n",
+    "result_11_10_5_rehab = calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_2)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Partial pooling scenario 3 (10 / 10 / 6)\n",
+    "result_10_10_6_acute = calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_3)\n",
+    "result_10_10_6_rehab = calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_3)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Partial pooling scenario 4 (10 / 9 / 7)\n",
+    "result_10_9_7_acute = calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_4)\n",
+    "result_10_9_7_rehab = calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_4)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Partial pooling scenario 5 (9 / 9 / 8)\n",
+    "result_9_9_8_acute = calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_5)\n",
+    "result_9_9_8_rehab = calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_5)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Partial pooling scenario 6 (9 / 8 / 9)\n",
+    "result_9_8_9_acute = calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_6)\n",
+    "result_9_8_9_rehab = calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
+    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_6)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 33,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "# generate rows for pooled beds\n",
+    "bed_0_0_22 = [*N_BEDS_POOLED_1,\n",
+    "             result_0_0_22[1], result_0_0_22[1],\n",
+    "             result_0_0_22[2], result_0_0_22[2]]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "bed_0_0_26 = [*N_BEDS_POOLED_2,\n",
+    "             result_0_0_26[1], result_0_0_26[1],\n",
+    "             result_0_0_26[2], result_0_0_26[2]]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# generate a row for beds without pooling\n",
+    "temp1 = calc_p_delay(acute_occupancy_current, 14, True)\n",
+    "temp2 = calc_p_delay(rehab_occupancy_current, 12, True)\n",
+    "bed_14_12_0 = [*N_BEDS_INC,\n",
+    "              temp1[1], temp2[1],\n",
+    "              temp1[2], temp2[2]]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# generate rows for partially pooled beds (6 scenarios)\n",
+    "bed_11_11_4 = [*N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_1,\n",
+    "              result_11_11_4_acute[0], result_11_11_4_rehab[0],\n",
+    "              result_11_11_4_acute[1], result_11_11_4_rehab[1]]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "bed_11_10_5 = [*N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_2,\n",
+    "              result_11_10_5_acute[0], result_11_10_5_rehab[0],\n",
+    "              result_11_10_5_acute[1], result_11_10_5_rehab[1]]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "bed_10_10_6 = [*N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_3,\n",
+    "              result_10_10_6_acute[0], result_10_10_6_rehab[0],\n",
+    "              result_10_10_6_acute[1], result_10_10_6_rehab[1]]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "bed_10_9_7 = [*N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_4,\n",
+    "              result_10_9_7_acute[0], result_10_9_7_rehab[0],\n",
+    "              result_10_9_7_acute[1], result_10_9_7_rehab[1]]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "bed_9_9_8 = [*N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_5,\n",
+    "              result_9_9_8_acute[0], result_9_9_8_rehab[0],\n",
+    "              result_9_9_8_acute[1], result_9_9_8_rehab[1]]\n",
+    "\n",
+    "bed_9_8_9 = [*N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_6,\n",
+    "              result_9_8_9_acute[0], result_9_8_9_rehab[0],\n",
+    "              result_9_8_9_acute[1], result_9_8_9_rehab[1]]"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 34,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [
+    {
+     "data": {
+      "text/html": [
+       "<style type=\"text/css\">\n",
+       "</style>\n",
+       "<table id=\"T_0d486\">\n",
+       "  <caption>Table 3. Results of pooling of acute and rehab beds</caption>\n",
+       "  <thead>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level0_col0\" class=\"col_heading level0 col0\" colspan=\"3\">No. beds</th>\n",
+       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level0_col3\" class=\"col_heading level0 col3\" colspan=\"2\">p(delay)</th>\n",
+       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level0_col5\" class=\"col_heading level0 col5\" colspan=\"2\">1 in every n pts delayed</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col0\" class=\"col_heading level1 col0\" >Dedicated acute</th>\n",
+       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col1\" class=\"col_heading level1 col1\" >Dedicated rehab</th>\n",
+       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col2\" class=\"col_heading level1 col2\" >Pooled</th>\n",
+       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col3\" class=\"col_heading level1 col3\" >Acute</th>\n",
+       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col4\" class=\"col_heading level1 col4\" >Rehab</th>\n",
+       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col5\" class=\"col_heading level1 col5\" >Acute</th>\n",
+       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col6\" class=\"col_heading level1 col6\" >Rehab</th>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </thead>\n",
+       "  <tbody>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col0\" class=\"data row0 col0\" >0</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col1\" class=\"data row0 col1\" >0</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col2\" class=\"data row0 col2\" >22</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col3\" class=\"data row0 col3\" >0.069</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col4\" class=\"data row0 col4\" >0.069</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col5\" class=\"data row0 col5\" >15</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col6\" class=\"data row0 col6\" >15</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col0\" class=\"data row1 col0\" >0</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col1\" class=\"data row1 col1\" >0</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col2\" class=\"data row1 col2\" >26</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col3\" class=\"data row1 col3\" >0.018</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col4\" class=\"data row1 col4\" >0.018</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col5\" class=\"data row1 col5\" >55</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col6\" class=\"data row1 col6\" >55</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col0\" class=\"data row2 col0\" >14</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col1\" class=\"data row2 col1\" >12</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col2\" class=\"data row2 col2\" >0</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col3\" class=\"data row2 col3\" >0.022</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col4\" class=\"data row2 col4\" >0.111</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col5\" class=\"data row2 col5\" >45</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col6\" class=\"data row2 col6\" >9</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col0\" class=\"data row3 col0\" >11</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col1\" class=\"data row3 col1\" >11</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col2\" class=\"data row3 col2\" >4</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col3\" class=\"data row3 col3\" >0.051</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col4\" class=\"data row3 col4\" >0.092</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col5\" class=\"data row3 col5\" >20</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col6\" class=\"data row3 col6\" >11</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col0\" class=\"data row4 col0\" >11</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col1\" class=\"data row4 col1\" >10</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col2\" class=\"data row4 col2\" >5</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col3\" class=\"data row4 col3\" >0.043</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col4\" class=\"data row4 col4\" >0.094</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col5\" class=\"data row4 col5\" >23</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col6\" class=\"data row4 col6\" >11</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col0\" class=\"data row5 col0\" >10</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col1\" class=\"data row5 col1\" >10</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col2\" class=\"data row5 col2\" >6</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col3\" class=\"data row5 col3\" >0.047</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col4\" class=\"data row5 col4\" >0.070</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col5\" class=\"data row5 col5\" >21</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col6\" class=\"data row5 col6\" >14</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col0\" class=\"data row6 col0\" >10</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col1\" class=\"data row6 col1\" >9</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col2\" class=\"data row6 col2\" >7</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col3\" class=\"data row6 col3\" >0.044</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col4\" class=\"data row6 col4\" >0.070</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col5\" class=\"data row6 col5\" >23</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col6\" class=\"data row6 col6\" >14</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col0\" class=\"data row7 col0\" >9</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col1\" class=\"data row7 col1\" >9</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col2\" class=\"data row7 col2\" >8</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col3\" class=\"data row7 col3\" >0.047</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col4\" class=\"data row7 col4\" >0.058</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col5\" class=\"data row7 col5\" >21</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col6\" class=\"data row7 col6\" >17</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "    <tr>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col0\" class=\"data row8 col0\" >9</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col1\" class=\"data row8 col1\" >8</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col2\" class=\"data row8 col2\" >9</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col3\" class=\"data row8 col3\" >0.046</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col4\" class=\"data row8 col4\" >0.058</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col5\" class=\"data row8 col5\" >22</td>\n",
+       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col6\" class=\"data row8 col6\" >17</td>\n",
+       "    </tr>\n",
+       "  </tbody>\n",
+       "</table>\n"
+      ],
+      "text/plain": [
+       "<pandas.io.formats.style.Styler at 0x7cf51dae1400>"
+      ]
+     },
+     "execution_count": 34,
+     "metadata": {},
+     "output_type": "execute_result"
+    }
+   ],
+   "source": [
+    "# multi-index column names\n",
+    "columns = pd.MultiIndex.from_tuples([\n",
+    "    ('No. beds', 'Dedicated acute'),\n",
+    "    ('No. beds', 'Dedicated rehab'),\n",
+    "    ('No. beds', 'Pooled'),\n",
+    "    ('p(delay)', 'Acute'),\n",
+    "    ('p(delay)', 'Rehab'),\n",
+    "    ('1 in every n pts delayed', 'Acute'),\n",
+    "    ('1 in every n pts delayed', 'Rehab')\n",
+    "])\n",
+    "\n",
+    "table_3 = (pd.DataFrame([bed_0_0_22, \n",
+    "                         bed_0_0_26,\n",
+    "                         bed_14_12_0,\n",
+    "                         bed_11_11_4,\n",
+    "                         bed_11_10_5,\n",
+    "                         bed_10_10_6,\n",
+    "                         bed_10_9_7,\n",
+    "                         bed_9_9_8,\n",
+    "                         bed_9_8_9],\n",
+    "                      columns=columns)\n",
+    "          .style.set_caption('Table 3. Results of pooling of acute and rehab beds')\n",
+    "          .format({('p(delay)', 'Acute'): '{:.3f}', ('p(delay)', 'Rehab'): '{:.3f}'})\n",
+    "          .hide(axis='index'))\n",
+    "\n",
+    "table_3"
+   ]
   }
  ],
  "metadata": {
diff --git a/outputs/pooling.csv b/outputs/pooling.csv
index cfbe0ae..56d8aa4 100644
--- a/outputs/pooling.csv
+++ b/outputs/pooling.csv
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 dedicated_acute,dedicated_rehab,pooled,pdelay_acute,pdelay_rehab,1_in_n_delay_acute,1_in_n_delay_rehab
 0,0,22,0.069,0.069,15,15
 0,0,26,0.018,0.018,55,55
-14,12,0,0.047,0.279,21,4
+14,12,0,0.022,0.111,45,9
 11,11,4,0.051,0.092,20,11
 11,10,5,0.043,0.094,23,11
 10,10,6,0.047,0.07,21,14

From 057d7d0ad062fef09ba6efdb3cc542b37872859c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 20 May 2025 15:45:02 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 18/24] chore(analysis): remove student comparison

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb | 547 ---------------------------------------
 1 file changed, 547 deletions(-)

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index 48b1565..5516868 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -5618,553 +5618,6 @@
     "tab2.to_csv(\n",
     "    os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"pooling.csv\"), index=False)"
    ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "source": [
-    "## Compare to other Python calculation\n",
-    "\n",
-    "Tom shared some previous code from assignment which attempted to reproduce the same paper. To check whether my data is the issue, I applied the student's functions to my raw model data.\n",
-    "\n",
-    "I found that my results did not change - so the differences are related to the model implementation, rather than the calculations here."
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 24,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "import numpy as np\n",
-    "import pandas as pd\n",
-    "import itertools\n",
-    "import math\n",
-    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
-    "from collections import Counter"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 25,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "# Number of beds (dedicated acute, dedicated rehab, pooled)\n",
-    "N_BEDS_BASAL = (10, 12, 0)\n",
-    "N_BEDS_INC = (14, 12, 0)\n",
-    "N_BEDS_POOLED_1 = (0, 0, 22)\n",
-    "N_BEDS_POOLED_2 = (0, 0, 26)\n",
-    "N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_1 = (11, 11, 4)\n",
-    "N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_2 = (11, 10, 5)\n",
-    "N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_3 = (10, 10, 6)\n",
-    "N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_4 = (10, 9, 7)\n",
-    "N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_5 = (9, 9, 8)\n",
-    "N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_6 = (9, 8, 9)"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 26,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "def calc_p_delay(occupancies, n_beds, include_one_in_every=False):\n",
-    "    '''\n",
-    "    helper function for calculating p(delay) for a given bed number\n",
-    "\n",
-    "    Params:\n",
-    "    -------\n",
-    "    occupancies: list of int\n",
-    "        a list containing daily bed occupancies\n",
-    "    n_beds: int\n",
-    "        the number of beds\n",
-    "    included_one_in_every: Boolean\n",
-    "        whether to include 'one in every n patients delayed'\n",
-    "        in the return\n",
-    "\n",
-    "    Returns:\n",
-    "    List:\n",
-    "    [number of beds, p(delay), one_in_every]\n",
-    "        if include_one_in_every is true\n",
-    "    [number of beds, p(delay)]\n",
-    "        if include_one_in_every is false\n",
-    "    -------\n",
-    "    '''\n",
-    "    # create a dictionary in the format {number of beds: count}\n",
-    "    # from the occupancies list\n",
-    "    data_dict = Counter(occupancies)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "    # calculate p(delay) using the Erlang formula: P(N=n) / P(N<=n)\n",
-    "    # P(N=n) - probability that exactly n beds are occupied\n",
-    "    numerator = data_dict[n_beds]\n",
-    "    # P(N<=n) - probability that at most n beds are occupied\n",
-    "    denominator = sum(value for key, value in data_dict.items() if key <= n_beds)\n",
-    "    # compute p(delay)\n",
-    "    p_delay = numerator / denominator\n",
-    "\n",
-    "    if include_one_in_every:\n",
-    "        # one in every n patients delayed\n",
-    "        one_in_every = int(round(1 / p_delay, 0))\n",
-    "        return([n_beds, p_delay, one_in_every])\n",
-    "    else:\n",
-    "        return([n_beds, p_delay])"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "source": [
-    "**Complete bed pooling** - with their methods, the result is the same as mine."
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 27,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "acute_occupancy_current = [b[\"asu_occupancy\"] for b in base_audit]\n",
-    "rehab_occupancy_current = [b[\"rehab_occupancy\"] for b in base_audit]"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 28,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "name": "stdout",
-     "output_type": "stream",
-     "text": [
-      "[22, 0.0688654262522751, 15] [26, 0.018285326496757653, 55]\n"
-     ]
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "# add acute and rehab occupancies element-wise to obtain the pooled occupancy\n",
-    "pooled_occupancy = np.array(acute_occupancy_current) + \\\n",
-    "    np.array(rehab_occupancy_current)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# [n_beds, p(delay), one_in_every_n_patients_delayed] for 22 pooled beds\n",
-    "result_0_0_22 = calc_p_delay(pooled_occupancy, 22, True)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# [n_beds, p(delay), one_in_every_n_patients_delayed] for 26 pooled beds\n",
-    "result_0_0_26 = calc_p_delay(pooled_occupancy, 26, True)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "print(result_0_0_22, result_0_0_26)"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "markdown",
-   "metadata": {},
-   "source": [
-    "**Partial bed pooling** - they all match."
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 29,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/plain": [
-       "{0: 67,\n",
-       " 1: 570,\n",
-       " 2: 2142,\n",
-       " 3: 6086,\n",
-       " 4: 12600,\n",
-       " 5: 21533,\n",
-       " 6: 30344,\n",
-       " 7: 36799,\n",
-       " 8: 38071,\n",
-       " 9: 35492,\n",
-       " 10: 29459,\n",
-       " 11: 22344,\n",
-       " 12: 15416,\n",
-       " 13: 10051,\n",
-       " 14: 5966,\n",
-       " 15: 3424,\n",
-       " 16: 1752,\n",
-       " 17: 907,\n",
-       " 18: 423,\n",
-       " 19: 176,\n",
-       " 20: 71,\n",
-       " 21: 36,\n",
-       " 22: 13,\n",
-       " 23: 4,\n",
-       " 24: 2,\n",
-       " 25: 1,\n",
-       " 27: 1}"
-      ]
-     },
-     "execution_count": 29,
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "# counter dict for acute bed occupancy \n",
-    "# in the format of {number of beds: count}\n",
-    "dict_acute_occupancy_count = Counter(acute_occupancy_current)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# counter dict for rehab bed occupancy\n",
-    "# in the format of {number of beds: count}\n",
-    "dict_rehab_occupancy_count = Counter(rehab_occupancy_current)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# print sorted dict\n",
-    "dict(sorted(dict_acute_occupancy_count.items(), key=lambda item: item[0]))"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 30,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "# Right-tail cumulative probability of occupancy greater than or equal to n.\n",
-    "# (e.g., P(acute >= n))\n",
-    "def prob_ge(counter, n):\n",
-    "    '''\n",
-    "    helper function for calculating the right-tail cumulative PROBability\n",
-    "    of occupancy for bed numbers Greater than or Equal to n\n",
-    "    (i.e., P(acute >= n))\n",
-    "    '''\n",
-    "    total =  sum(value for value in counter.values())\n",
-    "    cases = sum(value for key, value in counter.items() if key >= n)\n",
-    "    return cases / total\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# PROBability of occupancy EQual to n (e.g., P(rehab = n))\n",
-    "def prob_eq(counter, n):\n",
-    "    '''\n",
-    "    helper function for calculating the PROBability of occupancy\n",
-    "    for bed numbers EQual to n (i.e., P(acute=n))\n",
-    "    '''\n",
-    "    total =  sum(value for value in counter.values())\n",
-    "    case = counter[n]\n",
-    "    return case / total"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 31,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "def calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(a_counter, r_counter, pooling):\n",
-    "    '''\n",
-    "    helper function for calculating p(delay) for partially pooled acute beds\n",
-    "\n",
-    "    Params:\n",
-    "    -------\n",
-    "    a_counter: dict\n",
-    "        Counter dict for the acute bed occupancy\n",
-    "    r_counter: dict\n",
-    "        Counter dict for the rehab bed occupancy\n",
-    "    pooling: 3-tuple of int\n",
-    "        (n_beds dedicated to acute, n_beds dedicated to rehab, pooled_beds)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "    Returns:\n",
-    "    --------\n",
-    "    Tuple:\n",
-    "    (p(delay) for acute beds, one in every n patients delayed)\n",
-    "    \n",
-    "    '''\n",
-    "    a = pooling[0]   # No. beds dedicated acute\n",
-    "    r = pooling[1]   # No. beds dedicated rehab\n",
-    "    p = pooling[2]   # No. beds pooled\n",
-    "    \n",
-    "    x = prob_ge(a_counter, a + p)\n",
-    "    y = sum(prob_eq(a_counter, a + p - i) * prob_ge(r_counter, r + i)\n",
-    "            for i in range(1, p + 1))\n",
-    "    p_delay = x + y\n",
-    "    one_in_every = int(round(1 / (x + y), 0))\n",
-    "    return(p_delay, one_in_every)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "def calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(a_counter, r_counter, pooling):\n",
-    "    '''\n",
-    "    helper function for calculating p(delay) for partially pooled rehab beds\n",
-    "\n",
-    "    Params:\n",
-    "    -------\n",
-    "    a_counter: dict\n",
-    "        Counter dict for the acute bed occupancy\n",
-    "    r_counter: dict\n",
-    "        Counter dict for the rehab bed occupancy\n",
-    "    pooling: tuple of int\n",
-    "        (n_beds dedicated to acute, n_beds dedicated to rehab, pooled_beds)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "    Returns:\n",
-    "    --------\n",
-    "    Tuple:\n",
-    "    (p(delay) for rehab beds, one in every n patients delayed)\n",
-    "    '''    \n",
-    "    a = pooling[0]   # No. beds dedicated acute\n",
-    "    r = pooling[1]   # No. beds dedicated rehab\n",
-    "    p = pooling[2]   # No. beds pooled\n",
-    "\n",
-    "    x = prob_ge(r_counter, r + p)\n",
-    "    y = sum(prob_eq(r_counter, r + p - i) * prob_ge(a_counter, a + i)\n",
-    "           for i in range(1, p + 1))\n",
-    "    p_delay = x + y\n",
-    "    one_in_every = int(round(1 / (x + y), 0))\n",
-    "    return(p_delay, one_in_every)"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 32,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "# Partial pooling scenario 1 (11 / 11 / 4)\n",
-    "result_11_11_4_acute = calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_1)\n",
-    "result_11_11_4_rehab = calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_1)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Partial pooling scenario 2 (11 / 10 / 5)\n",
-    "result_11_10_5_acute = calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_2)\n",
-    "result_11_10_5_rehab = calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_2)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Partial pooling scenario 3 (10 / 10 / 6)\n",
-    "result_10_10_6_acute = calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_3)\n",
-    "result_10_10_6_rehab = calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_3)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Partial pooling scenario 4 (10 / 9 / 7)\n",
-    "result_10_9_7_acute = calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_4)\n",
-    "result_10_9_7_rehab = calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_4)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Partial pooling scenario 5 (9 / 9 / 8)\n",
-    "result_9_9_8_acute = calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_5)\n",
-    "result_9_9_8_rehab = calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_5)\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# Partial pooling scenario 6 (9 / 8 / 9)\n",
-    "result_9_8_9_acute = calc_acute_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_6)\n",
-    "result_9_8_9_rehab = calc_rehab_pooled_p_delay(dict_acute_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 dict_rehab_occupancy_count,\n",
-    "                                                 N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_6)"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 33,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [],
-   "source": [
-    "# generate rows for pooled beds\n",
-    "bed_0_0_22 = [*N_BEDS_POOLED_1,\n",
-    "             result_0_0_22[1], result_0_0_22[1],\n",
-    "             result_0_0_22[2], result_0_0_22[2]]\n",
-    "\n",
-    "bed_0_0_26 = [*N_BEDS_POOLED_2,\n",
-    "             result_0_0_26[1], result_0_0_26[1],\n",
-    "             result_0_0_26[2], result_0_0_26[2]]\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# generate a row for beds without pooling\n",
-    "temp1 = calc_p_delay(acute_occupancy_current, 14, True)\n",
-    "temp2 = calc_p_delay(rehab_occupancy_current, 12, True)\n",
-    "bed_14_12_0 = [*N_BEDS_INC,\n",
-    "              temp1[1], temp2[1],\n",
-    "              temp1[2], temp2[2]]\n",
-    "\n",
-    "# generate rows for partially pooled beds (6 scenarios)\n",
-    "bed_11_11_4 = [*N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_1,\n",
-    "              result_11_11_4_acute[0], result_11_11_4_rehab[0],\n",
-    "              result_11_11_4_acute[1], result_11_11_4_rehab[1]]\n",
-    "\n",
-    "bed_11_10_5 = [*N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_2,\n",
-    "              result_11_10_5_acute[0], result_11_10_5_rehab[0],\n",
-    "              result_11_10_5_acute[1], result_11_10_5_rehab[1]]\n",
-    "\n",
-    "bed_10_10_6 = [*N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_3,\n",
-    "              result_10_10_6_acute[0], result_10_10_6_rehab[0],\n",
-    "              result_10_10_6_acute[1], result_10_10_6_rehab[1]]\n",
-    "\n",
-    "bed_10_9_7 = [*N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_4,\n",
-    "              result_10_9_7_acute[0], result_10_9_7_rehab[0],\n",
-    "              result_10_9_7_acute[1], result_10_9_7_rehab[1]]\n",
-    "\n",
-    "bed_9_9_8 = [*N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_5,\n",
-    "              result_9_9_8_acute[0], result_9_9_8_rehab[0],\n",
-    "              result_9_9_8_acute[1], result_9_9_8_rehab[1]]\n",
-    "\n",
-    "bed_9_8_9 = [*N_BEDS_PART_POOLED_6,\n",
-    "              result_9_8_9_acute[0], result_9_8_9_rehab[0],\n",
-    "              result_9_8_9_acute[1], result_9_8_9_rehab[1]]"
-   ]
-  },
-  {
-   "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 34,
-   "metadata": {},
-   "outputs": [
-    {
-     "data": {
-      "text/html": [
-       "<style type=\"text/css\">\n",
-       "</style>\n",
-       "<table id=\"T_0d486\">\n",
-       "  <caption>Table 3. Results of pooling of acute and rehab beds</caption>\n",
-       "  <thead>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level0_col0\" class=\"col_heading level0 col0\" colspan=\"3\">No. beds</th>\n",
-       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level0_col3\" class=\"col_heading level0 col3\" colspan=\"2\">p(delay)</th>\n",
-       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level0_col5\" class=\"col_heading level0 col5\" colspan=\"2\">1 in every n pts delayed</th>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col0\" class=\"col_heading level1 col0\" >Dedicated acute</th>\n",
-       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col1\" class=\"col_heading level1 col1\" >Dedicated rehab</th>\n",
-       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col2\" class=\"col_heading level1 col2\" >Pooled</th>\n",
-       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col3\" class=\"col_heading level1 col3\" >Acute</th>\n",
-       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col4\" class=\"col_heading level1 col4\" >Rehab</th>\n",
-       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col5\" class=\"col_heading level1 col5\" >Acute</th>\n",
-       "      <th id=\"T_0d486_level1_col6\" class=\"col_heading level1 col6\" >Rehab</th>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </thead>\n",
-       "  <tbody>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col0\" class=\"data row0 col0\" >0</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col1\" class=\"data row0 col1\" >0</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col2\" class=\"data row0 col2\" >22</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col3\" class=\"data row0 col3\" >0.069</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col4\" class=\"data row0 col4\" >0.069</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col5\" class=\"data row0 col5\" >15</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row0_col6\" class=\"data row0 col6\" >15</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col0\" class=\"data row1 col0\" >0</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col1\" class=\"data row1 col1\" >0</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col2\" class=\"data row1 col2\" >26</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col3\" class=\"data row1 col3\" >0.018</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col4\" class=\"data row1 col4\" >0.018</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col5\" class=\"data row1 col5\" >55</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row1_col6\" class=\"data row1 col6\" >55</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col0\" class=\"data row2 col0\" >14</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col1\" class=\"data row2 col1\" >12</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col2\" class=\"data row2 col2\" >0</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col3\" class=\"data row2 col3\" >0.022</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col4\" class=\"data row2 col4\" >0.111</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col5\" class=\"data row2 col5\" >45</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row2_col6\" class=\"data row2 col6\" >9</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col0\" class=\"data row3 col0\" >11</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col1\" class=\"data row3 col1\" >11</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col2\" class=\"data row3 col2\" >4</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col3\" class=\"data row3 col3\" >0.051</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col4\" class=\"data row3 col4\" >0.092</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col5\" class=\"data row3 col5\" >20</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row3_col6\" class=\"data row3 col6\" >11</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col0\" class=\"data row4 col0\" >11</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col1\" class=\"data row4 col1\" >10</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col2\" class=\"data row4 col2\" >5</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col3\" class=\"data row4 col3\" >0.043</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col4\" class=\"data row4 col4\" >0.094</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col5\" class=\"data row4 col5\" >23</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row4_col6\" class=\"data row4 col6\" >11</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col0\" class=\"data row5 col0\" >10</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col1\" class=\"data row5 col1\" >10</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col2\" class=\"data row5 col2\" >6</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col3\" class=\"data row5 col3\" >0.047</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col4\" class=\"data row5 col4\" >0.070</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col5\" class=\"data row5 col5\" >21</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row5_col6\" class=\"data row5 col6\" >14</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col0\" class=\"data row6 col0\" >10</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col1\" class=\"data row6 col1\" >9</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col2\" class=\"data row6 col2\" >7</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col3\" class=\"data row6 col3\" >0.044</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col4\" class=\"data row6 col4\" >0.070</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col5\" class=\"data row6 col5\" >23</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row6_col6\" class=\"data row6 col6\" >14</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col0\" class=\"data row7 col0\" >9</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col1\" class=\"data row7 col1\" >9</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col2\" class=\"data row7 col2\" >8</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col3\" class=\"data row7 col3\" >0.047</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col4\" class=\"data row7 col4\" >0.058</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col5\" class=\"data row7 col5\" >21</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row7_col6\" class=\"data row7 col6\" >17</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col0\" class=\"data row8 col0\" >9</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col1\" class=\"data row8 col1\" >8</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col2\" class=\"data row8 col2\" >9</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col3\" class=\"data row8 col3\" >0.046</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col4\" class=\"data row8 col4\" >0.058</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col5\" class=\"data row8 col5\" >22</td>\n",
-       "      <td id=\"T_0d486_row8_col6\" class=\"data row8 col6\" >17</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "  </tbody>\n",
-       "</table>\n"
-      ],
-      "text/plain": [
-       "<pandas.io.formats.style.Styler at 0x7cf51dae1400>"
-      ]
-     },
-     "execution_count": 34,
-     "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
-    }
-   ],
-   "source": [
-    "# multi-index column names\n",
-    "columns = pd.MultiIndex.from_tuples([\n",
-    "    ('No. beds', 'Dedicated acute'),\n",
-    "    ('No. beds', 'Dedicated rehab'),\n",
-    "    ('No. beds', 'Pooled'),\n",
-    "    ('p(delay)', 'Acute'),\n",
-    "    ('p(delay)', 'Rehab'),\n",
-    "    ('1 in every n pts delayed', 'Acute'),\n",
-    "    ('1 in every n pts delayed', 'Rehab')\n",
-    "])\n",
-    "\n",
-    "table_3 = (pd.DataFrame([bed_0_0_22, \n",
-    "                         bed_0_0_26,\n",
-    "                         bed_14_12_0,\n",
-    "                         bed_11_11_4,\n",
-    "                         bed_11_10_5,\n",
-    "                         bed_10_10_6,\n",
-    "                         bed_10_9_7,\n",
-    "                         bed_9_9_8,\n",
-    "                         bed_9_8_9],\n",
-    "                      columns=columns)\n",
-    "          .style.set_caption('Table 3. Results of pooling of acute and rehab beds')\n",
-    "          .format({('p(delay)', 'Acute'): '{:.3f}', ('p(delay)', 'Rehab'): '{:.3f}'})\n",
-    "          .hide(axis='index'))\n",
-    "\n",
-    "table_3"
-   ]
   }
  ],
  "metadata": {

From 0dcd3066f9b7e78a51d4a2a65a14ef38f04276ca Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 20 May 2025 15:52:16 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 19/24] refactor(analysis): rename outputs to relate to name of
 tables and figures from paper

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb                      |  27 +++++++++---------
 ...occupancy_freq_asu.png => figure1_asu.png} | Bin
 ...pancy_freq_rehab.png => figure1_rehab.png} | Bin
 .../{delay_prob_asu.png => figure3_asu.png}   | Bin
 ...delay_prob_rehab.png => figure3_rehab.png} | Bin
 .../{delay_scenario4.csv => suptable1.csv}    |   0
 outputs/{delay_scenario1.csv => table2.csv}   |   0
 outputs/{pooling.csv => table3.csv}           |   0
 8 files changed, 13 insertions(+), 14 deletions(-)
 rename outputs/{occupancy_freq_asu.png => figure1_asu.png} (100%)
 rename outputs/{occupancy_freq_rehab.png => figure1_rehab.png} (100%)
 rename outputs/{delay_prob_asu.png => figure3_asu.png} (100%)
 rename outputs/{delay_prob_rehab.png => figure3_rehab.png} (100%)
 rename outputs/{delay_scenario4.csv => suptable1.csv} (100%)
 rename outputs/{delay_scenario1.csv => table2.csv} (100%)
 rename outputs/{pooling.csv => table3.csv} (100%)

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index 5516868..7c5404a 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -1863,11 +1863,11 @@
    "source": [
     "# Acute stroke unit\n",
     "plot_occupancy_freq(base_overall[\"asu\"], unit=\"asu\",\n",
-    "                    file=\"occupancy_freq_asu.png\")\n",
+    "                    file=\"figure1_asu.png\")\n",
     "\n",
     "# Rehabilitation unit\n",
     "plot_occupancy_freq(base_overall[\"rehab\"], unit=\"rehab\",\n",
-    "                    file=\"occupancy_freq_rehab.png\")"
+    "                    file=\"figure1_rehab.png\")"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -3768,9 +3768,8 @@
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "plot_delay_prob(base_overall[\"asu\"], unit=\"asu\", file=\"delay_prob_asu.png\")\n",
-    "plot_delay_prob(base_overall[\"rehab\"], unit=\"rehab\",\n",
-    "                file=\"delay_prob_rehab.png\")"
+    "plot_delay_prob(base_overall[\"asu\"], unit=\"asu\", file=\"figure3_asu.png\")\n",
+    "plot_delay_prob(base_overall[\"rehab\"], unit=\"rehab\", file=\"figure3_rehab.png\")"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -4327,7 +4326,7 @@
     "# Display and save to csv\n",
     "display(adj_full_tab_2)\n",
     "adj_full_tab_2.to_csv(\n",
-    "    os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"delay_scenario1.csv\"), index=False)"
+    "    os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"table2.csv\"), index=False)"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -4557,7 +4556,7 @@
     "\n",
     "# Display and save to csv\n",
     "display(sup_tab1)\n",
-    "sup_tab1.to_csv(os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"delay_scenario4.csv\"), index=False)"
+    "sup_tab1.to_csv(os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"suptable1.csv\"), index=False)"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -5604,19 +5603,19 @@
    ],
    "source": [
     "# Convert to a dataframe\n",
-    "tab2 = pd.DataFrame(pool_result_list)\n",
+    "tab3 = pd.DataFrame(pool_result_list)\n",
     "\n",
     "for delay_type in [\"acute\", \"rehab\"]:\n",
     "    # Round probabilities to 3 decimal places\n",
-    "    tab2[f\"pdelay_{delay_type}\"] = round(tab2[f\"pdelay_{delay_type}\"], 3)\n",
+    "    tab3[f\"pdelay_{delay_type}\"] = round(tab3[f\"pdelay_{delay_type}\"], 3)\n",
     "    # Convert 1-in-n counts to integers\n",
-    "    tab2[f\"1_in_n_delay_{delay_type}\"] = (\n",
-    "        tab2[f\"1_in_n_delay_{delay_type}\"].astype(int))\n",
+    "    tab3[f\"1_in_n_delay_{delay_type}\"] = (\n",
+    "        tab3[f\"1_in_n_delay_{delay_type}\"].astype(int))\n",
     "\n",
     "# Display and save to csv\n",
-    "display(tab2)\n",
-    "tab2.to_csv(\n",
-    "    os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"pooling.csv\"), index=False)"
+    "display(tab3)\n",
+    "tab3.to_csv(\n",
+    "    os.path.join(OUTPUT_DIR, \"table3.csv\"), index=False)"
    ]
   }
  ],
diff --git a/outputs/occupancy_freq_asu.png b/outputs/figure1_asu.png
similarity index 100%
rename from outputs/occupancy_freq_asu.png
rename to outputs/figure1_asu.png
diff --git a/outputs/occupancy_freq_rehab.png b/outputs/figure1_rehab.png
similarity index 100%
rename from outputs/occupancy_freq_rehab.png
rename to outputs/figure1_rehab.png
diff --git a/outputs/delay_prob_asu.png b/outputs/figure3_asu.png
similarity index 100%
rename from outputs/delay_prob_asu.png
rename to outputs/figure3_asu.png
diff --git a/outputs/delay_prob_rehab.png b/outputs/figure3_rehab.png
similarity index 100%
rename from outputs/delay_prob_rehab.png
rename to outputs/figure3_rehab.png
diff --git a/outputs/delay_scenario4.csv b/outputs/suptable1.csv
similarity index 100%
rename from outputs/delay_scenario4.csv
rename to outputs/suptable1.csv
diff --git a/outputs/delay_scenario1.csv b/outputs/table2.csv
similarity index 100%
rename from outputs/delay_scenario1.csv
rename to outputs/table2.csv
diff --git a/outputs/pooling.csv b/outputs/table3.csv
similarity index 100%
rename from outputs/pooling.csv
rename to outputs/table3.csv

From 0d6839b3f4ad8860955689d960c454979e92d75b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 21 May 2025 10:26:03 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 20/24] fix(model): add stroke mortality parameter for stroke
 other LOS sampling (#6)

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb  | 898 ++++++++++++++++++--------------------
 outputs/figure1_asu.png   | Bin 30327 -> 29789 bytes
 outputs/figure1_rehab.png | Bin 30157 -> 31249 bytes
 outputs/figure3_asu.png   | Bin 25242 -> 25019 bytes
 outputs/figure3_rehab.png | Bin 25719 -> 25700 bytes
 outputs/suptable1.csv     |  18 +-
 outputs/table2.csv        |  20 +-
 outputs/table3.csv        |  18 +-
 simulation/model.py       |  14 +-
 simulation/parameters.py  |   9 +
 10 files changed, 481 insertions(+), 496 deletions(-)

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index 7c5404a..53bcbab 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -179,12 +179,12 @@
          "textposition": "auto",
          "type": "bar",
          "x": {
-          "bdata": "AAECAwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhMUFRYXGBkaGw==",
+          "bdata": "AAECAwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhMUFRYXGA==",
           "dtype": "i1"
          },
          "xaxis": "x",
          "y": {
-          "bdata": "bHe/VzQKMD//vkgzrA5hP08nssFfBoA/f6Ef0PnDlj913+cr55CnP+223BUFI7Q/RvufnWFgvD+cdR1r2zTBPwmmrrcdzcE/j7VtmmiYwD8cnN/xgoy7P5KDn4ss5bQ/qwY2fjXVrD/2CZbpb8yiPyg+kDoQUZY/uL4HeaudiT8tQxzr4jZ6PxWqVUJfJGs/fnz9vw9RWT/anDhJORFFP41+E9tZ/zA/VYDoO6M8IT9fuYhWz+UIPybkgGqwpO4+JuSAarCk3j4m5IBqsKTOPgAAAAAAAAAAJuSAarCkzj4=",
+          "bdata": "HoK9nOx5MT88RTIGLeVhP00xGGv8cII/UOespqw7mj8s3TlyTcCqP+bacxjKvrU/yjRAtVnsvT9M8SFU28TBP3gNmsNu/sE/MVFHJ+U1wD9qXnDwf2G6P4CKNMyGaLM/wcH/hWnUqj+fZUbr2lWgP2CQZaM3ZJM/Bjc8t+pbhT8yAMjeIoR1P6OeDaqCTmU/iWNXdAz3VT+jng2qgk5FP66FZ15/9DE/5NXYY2W6HD8m5IBqsKT+PibkgGqwpN4+JuSAarCkzj4=",
           "dtype": "f8"
          },
          "yaxis": "y"
@@ -1030,12 +1030,12 @@
          "textposition": "auto",
          "type": "bar",
          "x": {
-          "bdata": "AAECAwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhMUFRYXGBkaGw==",
+          "bdata": "AAECAwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhMUFRYXGBka",
           "dtype": "i1"
          },
          "xaxis": "x",
          "y": {
-          "bdata": "VYDoO6M8ET/6zK9/9oc7P+XhonBDcmE/buomK6BxgD+beRI+FCuVP1Z10OBlq6U/S76wl5AJsj/Tzh74XvW4Pw0+NWdWob4/RstcluJJwD+uKdyK9Mm/PzFl+KUX1Ls/yzXyZvoStz/8so0qYHWxP232+dPVO6g/iLDqhe3Enz+ghAP11WyTP414rtRqo4Y/QzrzBnQEeT/UPZ3IBn9pPxpnATafcVY/xKVhLahDRj92sF9yYLM3P62uihEXdic/NHmUuH1HED+YjpBC7ibzPpiOkELuJvM+JuSAarCkzj4=",
+          "bdata": "occwXRrQ+j7N3gFI1Ow9P0s7fhSZ22Q/8EXKoUjqgD8sTjRGIMiVP/BpOgCSNqU/84mpuy10sT9gW3jjwSq5P6KAC+5/cL4/qI4qWg1XwD+jwAQ5viLAP/2ulSMKebw/zg48s/vwtj+wHruTXyaxPzSFZ2GzEag/oeugu2Mcnz+MKmkR6a6TP8Iy+lk83IU/WgJCaX70dz+bnYKcXXdpP7DyaSv8/1c/IjOfg04PSD/wvDIYYmA5P3eHPL/IMSI/uZXkxRMcFD+YjpBC7ibzPibkgGqwpN4+",
           "dtype": "f8"
          },
          "yaxis": "y"
@@ -2000,12 +2000,12 @@
          "showlegend": false,
          "type": "scatter",
          "x": {
-          "bdata": "AAECAwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhMUFRYXGBkaGw==",
+          "bdata": "AAECAwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhMUFRYXGA==",
           "dtype": "i1"
          },
          "xaxis": "x",
          "y": {
-          "bdata": "AAAAAAAA8D8CgetuXKLsP4sNV508qug/m06e1vj35T+8CtyeuMjiP42pU0p6BuA/qSXTppl62j9x1FjuBmLVP+9WTb6IcNA/Bq0gv9i6yD8s6bykhLDBPxM5x9fNSbg/wbfHebF0rz9ycuDEB7ijP5ZrLrXP4pY/jWbkEMzviT9z7pcSL196P91PM8TfNms/6TlGSkRYWT8hM8wovxNFP4KVVdlBADE/BwnK5fk8IT9r4g4G/+UIP6FZt8LNpO4+chiVFr+k3j6yPInAt6TOPgAAAAAAAAAAJ+SAarCkzj4=",
+          "bdata": "AAAAAAAA8D94G0jdxITsPyp4OQUvJ+k/QvsLgbQc5j+RX9Yh2LfiP8LQGvMaMt8/uppMGpyx2T++srGRtKnUP1FD/HWsic8/99FI/kZAxz+hkxh7pXvAP3qunp90J7Y/tOxDG6PlrD/2xG0ycQKhP4wWtQsjzZM/zvQqi6WUhT8mT5DT5p91P52/0Xq2W2U/e2XDGRj9VT/4z8ec0lBFP5jty6Ev9TE/HwbEC7G6HD9rd6RsxqT+PrE8icC3pN4+JuSAarCkzj4=",
           "dtype": "f8"
          },
          "yaxis": "y"
@@ -2895,12 +2895,12 @@
          "showlegend": false,
          "type": "scatter",
          "x": {
-          "bdata": "AAECAwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhMUFRYXGBkaGw==",
+          "bdata": "AAECAwQFBgcICQoLDA0ODxAREhMUFRYXGBka",
           "dtype": "i1"
          },
          "xaxis": "x",
          "y": {
-          "bdata": "AAAAAAAA8D+1utPqTqvrPwMKozpNDuo/VHHrBCQj6D/w+yfpgB/lP6wowwgyZOI/HbnlVh5L3z9BUUDJt9PZP9rmRLSmMtU/kAI+BBSs0D+jXQm4XPHJPwZijXLXScM/rhLQ2f1uvD9WEeTshdizP+73oW4YJKo/VW2Du3WUoD+KJdQ+uuGTP4F6+llJ6YY/FPjIaNgpeT9K6gBwpZBpPxEj6tY6eVY/uvpr4FJHRj9GEhR3FbU3Pxg/1lm0dic/VuG7l6hHED/dyFDFCSfzPu/FVdjyJvM+J+SAarCkzj4=",
+          "bdata": "AAAAAAAA8D9ONtlkk03uP8sGMraa5+o/B99OBDZq5z8k2fio9efkPw+aPUoy6+E/KvZn5Ryx3j9HxwzG2SnaP8mroAbBLNU/w/uOU17G0D/NZTWweVHKP3YXjA+ip8M/zOuwo4gvvD87FfBIznezP1SzYUI18Kk/0Qq9oWQ7oD87FPsrrSKUP4JZ/ov4HoY/8CIHNh0ZeD+d3hzM2YlpPziUlzReCFg/vyKV2C0TSD9rycsm82E5P4uzm7hCMiI/9FRLeTUcFD9HLx1u9ybzPibkgGqwpN4+",
           "dtype": "f8"
          },
          "yaxis": "y"
@@ -3951,117 +3951,117 @@
        "      <th>0</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.193202</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.214047</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.181649</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.203707</td>\n",
        "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.138199</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.128773</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.149243</td>\n",
        "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.160144</td>\n",
-       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.094876</td>\n",
-       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.111319</td>\n",
-       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.086540</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.104845</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.061437</td>\n",
-       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.076030</td>\n",
-       "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.056439</td>\n",
+       "      <td>18.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.070083</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.038513</td>\n",
-       "      <td>26.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.048935</td>\n",
-       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.033222</td>\n",
+       "      <td>30.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.043671</td>\n",
+       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>5</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.022350</td>\n",
-       "      <td>45.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.030251</td>\n",
-       "      <td>33.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.019337</td>\n",
+       "      <td>52.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.025647</td>\n",
+       "      <td>39.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.202678</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.205611</td>\n",
        "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.226770</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.227895</td>\n",
        "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>7</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.150691</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.153553</td>\n",
        "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.176401</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.174892</td>\n",
        "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>8</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.111069</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.110100</td>\n",
        "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.131936</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.129832</td>\n",
        "      <td>8.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>9</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.077523</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.076047</td>\n",
        "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.094953</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.092773</td>\n",
        "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>10</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.051057</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.050661</td>\n",
        "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.064930</td>\n",
-       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.064114</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>11</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.032383</td>\n",
-       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.042869</td>\n",
-       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.031703</td>\n",
+       "      <td>32.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.041860</td>\n",
+       "      <td>24.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>12</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.019416</td>\n",
-       "      <td>52.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.026822</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.019664</td>\n",
+       "      <td>51.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.027139</td>\n",
        "      <td>37.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
@@ -4070,33 +4070,33 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  1_in_n_delay_current  prob_delay_5%  \\\n",
-       "0     asu     9            0.193202                   5.0       0.214047   \n",
-       "1     asu    10            0.138199                   7.0       0.160144   \n",
-       "2     asu    11            0.094876                  11.0       0.111319   \n",
-       "3     asu    12            0.061437                  16.0       0.076030   \n",
-       "4     asu    13            0.038513                  26.0       0.048935   \n",
-       "5     asu    14            0.022350                  45.0       0.030251   \n",
-       "6   rehab    10            0.202678                   5.0       0.226770   \n",
-       "7   rehab    11            0.150691                   7.0       0.176401   \n",
-       "8   rehab    12            0.111069                   9.0       0.131936   \n",
-       "9   rehab    13            0.077523                  13.0       0.094953   \n",
-       "10  rehab    14            0.051057                  20.0       0.064930   \n",
-       "11  rehab    15            0.032383                  31.0       0.042869   \n",
-       "12  rehab    16            0.019416                  52.0       0.026822   \n",
+       "0     asu     9            0.181649                   6.0       0.203707   \n",
+       "1     asu    10            0.128773                   8.0       0.149243   \n",
+       "2     asu    11            0.086540                  12.0       0.104845   \n",
+       "3     asu    12            0.056439                  18.0       0.070083   \n",
+       "4     asu    13            0.033222                  30.0       0.043671   \n",
+       "5     asu    14            0.019337                  52.0       0.025647   \n",
+       "6   rehab    10            0.205611                   5.0       0.227895   \n",
+       "7   rehab    11            0.153553                   7.0       0.174892   \n",
+       "8   rehab    12            0.110100                   9.0       0.129832   \n",
+       "9   rehab    13            0.076047                  13.0       0.092773   \n",
+       "10  rehab    14            0.050661                  20.0       0.064114   \n",
+       "11  rehab    15            0.031703                  32.0       0.041860   \n",
+       "12  rehab    16            0.019664                  51.0       0.027139   \n",
        "\n",
        "    1_in_n_delay_5%  \n",
        "0               5.0  \n",
-       "1               6.0  \n",
-       "2               9.0  \n",
-       "3              13.0  \n",
-       "4              20.0  \n",
-       "5              33.0  \n",
+       "1               7.0  \n",
+       "2              10.0  \n",
+       "3              14.0  \n",
+       "4              23.0  \n",
+       "5              39.0  \n",
        "6               4.0  \n",
        "7               6.0  \n",
        "8               8.0  \n",
        "9              11.0  \n",
-       "10             15.0  \n",
-       "11             23.0  \n",
+       "10             16.0  \n",
+       "11             24.0  \n",
        "12             37.0  "
       ]
      },
@@ -4160,8 +4160,8 @@
        "      <th>0</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.19</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.18</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
        "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4169,52 +4169,52 @@
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
        "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.16</td>\n",
-       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
-       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
-       "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>18.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.07</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>30.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>26.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
-       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>5</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>45.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>52.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>33.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>39.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.21</td>\n",
        "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
        "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
@@ -4244,23 +4244,23 @@
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
        "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>11</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>32.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>24.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>12</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>52.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>51.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
        "      <td>37.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
@@ -4270,31 +4270,31 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  1_in_n_delay_current  prob_delay_5%  \\\n",
-       "0     asu     9                0.19                   5.0            NaN   \n",
-       "1     asu    10                0.14                   7.0           0.16   \n",
-       "2     asu    11                0.09                  11.0           0.11   \n",
-       "3     asu    12                0.06                  16.0           0.08   \n",
-       "4     asu    13                0.04                  26.0           0.05   \n",
-       "5     asu    14                0.02                  45.0           0.03   \n",
-       "6   rehab    10                0.20                   5.0            NaN   \n",
+       "0     asu     9                0.18                   6.0            NaN   \n",
+       "1     asu    10                0.13                   8.0           0.15   \n",
+       "2     asu    11                0.09                  12.0           0.10   \n",
+       "3     asu    12                0.06                  18.0           0.07   \n",
+       "4     asu    13                0.03                  30.0           0.04   \n",
+       "5     asu    14                0.02                  52.0           0.03   \n",
+       "6   rehab    10                0.21                   5.0            NaN   \n",
        "8   rehab    12                0.11                   9.0           0.13   \n",
        "9   rehab    13                0.08                  13.0           0.09   \n",
        "10  rehab    14                0.05                  20.0           0.06   \n",
-       "11  rehab    15                0.03                  31.0           0.04   \n",
-       "12  rehab    16                0.02                  52.0           0.03   \n",
+       "11  rehab    15                0.03                  32.0           0.04   \n",
+       "12  rehab    16                0.02                  51.0           0.03   \n",
        "\n",
        "    1_in_n_delay_5%  \n",
        "0               NaN  \n",
-       "1               6.0  \n",
-       "2               9.0  \n",
-       "3              13.0  \n",
-       "4              20.0  \n",
-       "5              33.0  \n",
+       "1               7.0  \n",
+       "2              10.0  \n",
+       "3              14.0  \n",
+       "4              23.0  \n",
+       "5              39.0  \n",
        "6               NaN  \n",
        "8               8.0  \n",
        "9              11.0  \n",
-       "10             15.0  \n",
-       "11             23.0  \n",
+       "10             16.0  \n",
+       "11             24.0  \n",
        "12             37.0  "
       ]
      },
@@ -4411,55 +4411,55 @@
        "      <th>0</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
-       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.13</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.08</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.09</td>\n",
-       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>18.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
+       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.06</td>\n",
-       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>18.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>36.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.04</td>\n",
-       "      <td>26.0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>55.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
+       "      <td>30.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
+       "      <td>67.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>45.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>52.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
-       "      <td>111.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>131.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>5</th>\n",
        "      <td>asu</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
-       "      <td>79.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>95.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
-       "      <td>225.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>277.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
@@ -4468,7 +4468,7 @@
        "      <td>0.11</td>\n",
        "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
-       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>19.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>7</th>\n",
@@ -4493,18 +4493,18 @@
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.03</td>\n",
-       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>32.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.01</td>\n",
-       "      <td>101.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>110.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>10</th>\n",
        "      <td>rehab</td>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.02</td>\n",
-       "      <td>52.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>51.0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
-       "      <td>212.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>205.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
@@ -4512,30 +4512,30 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "     unit  beds  prob_delay_current  1_in_n_delay_current  \\\n",
-       "0     asu    10                0.14                   7.0   \n",
-       "1     asu    11                0.09                  11.0   \n",
-       "2     asu    12                0.06                  16.0   \n",
-       "3     asu    13                0.04                  26.0   \n",
-       "4     asu    14                0.02                  45.0   \n",
-       "5     asu    15                0.01                  79.0   \n",
+       "0     asu    10                0.13                   8.0   \n",
+       "1     asu    11                0.09                  12.0   \n",
+       "2     asu    12                0.06                  18.0   \n",
+       "3     asu    13                0.03                  30.0   \n",
+       "4     asu    14                0.02                  52.0   \n",
+       "5     asu    15                0.01                  95.0   \n",
        "6   rehab    12                0.11                   9.0   \n",
        "7   rehab    13                0.08                  13.0   \n",
        "8   rehab    14                0.05                  20.0   \n",
-       "9   rehab    15                0.03                  31.0   \n",
-       "10  rehab    16                0.02                  52.0   \n",
+       "9   rehab    15                0.03                  32.0   \n",
+       "10  rehab    16                0.02                  51.0   \n",
        "\n",
        "    prob_delay_no_complex_neuro  1_in_n_delay_no_complex_neuro  \n",
-       "0                          0.09                           11.0  \n",
-       "1                          0.06                           18.0  \n",
-       "2                          0.03                           31.0  \n",
-       "3                          0.02                           55.0  \n",
-       "4                          0.01                          111.0  \n",
-       "5                          0.00                          225.0  \n",
-       "6                          0.05                           20.0  \n",
+       "0                          0.08                           12.0  \n",
+       "1                          0.05                           20.0  \n",
+       "2                          0.03                           36.0  \n",
+       "3                          0.01                           67.0  \n",
+       "4                          0.01                          131.0  \n",
+       "5                          0.00                          277.0  \n",
+       "6                          0.05                           19.0  \n",
        "7                          0.03                           32.0  \n",
        "8                          0.02                           57.0  \n",
-       "9                          0.01                          101.0  \n",
-       "10                         0.00                          212.0  "
+       "9                          0.01                          110.0  \n",
+       "10                         0.00                          205.0  "
       ]
      },
      "metadata": {},
@@ -4607,420 +4607,390 @@
        "  <tbody>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>0</th>\n",
-       "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000011</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000011</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
-       "      <td>3</td>\n",
-       "      <td>11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000040</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000044</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.916667</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000051</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000062</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.823529</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>13</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000047</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000091</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.520000</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>52</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000190</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000281</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.675325</td>\n",
+       "      <td>51</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000186</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000248</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.750000</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>4</th>\n",
+       "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>6</td>\n",
-       "      <td>133</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000486</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000767</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.633333</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>189</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000690</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000939</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.735409</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>5</th>\n",
+       "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>7</td>\n",
-       "      <td>416</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001520</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002287</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.664537</td>\n",
+       "      <td>466</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001702</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002641</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.644537</td>\n",
        "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>6</th>\n",
+       "      <th>5</th>\n",
        "      <td>8</td>\n",
-       "      <td>952</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.003478</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.005764</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.603295</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1178</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.004303</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.006944</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.619674</td>\n",
        "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>7</th>\n",
+       "      <th>6</th>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2049</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.007485</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.013249</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.564930</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2324</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.008489</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.015434</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.550059</td>\n",
        "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>8</th>\n",
+       "      <th>7</th>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
-       "      <td>3709</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.013549</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.026798</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.505589</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4106</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.014999</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.030433</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.492858</td>\n",
        "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>9</th>\n",
+       "      <th>8</th>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
-       "      <td>6326</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.023109</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.049907</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.463036</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6748</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.024650</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.055083</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.447510</td>\n",
        "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>10</th>\n",
+       "      <th>9</th>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
-       "      <td>9584</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.035010</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.084917</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.412286</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10234</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.037384</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.092468</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.404298</td>\n",
        "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>11</th>\n",
+       "      <th>10</th>\n",
        "      <td>13</td>\n",
-       "      <td>13434</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.049074</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.133991</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.366249</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14118</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.051573</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.144040</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.358043</td>\n",
        "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>12</th>\n",
+       "      <th>11</th>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
-       "      <td>17387</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.063514</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.197505</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.321582</td>\n",
+       "      <td>18167</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.066363</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.210404</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.315410</td>\n",
        "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>13</th>\n",
+       "      <th>12</th>\n",
        "      <td>15</td>\n",
-       "      <td>21372</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.078071</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.275576</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.283302</td>\n",
+       "      <td>21953</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.080194</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.290597</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.275961</td>\n",
        "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>14</th>\n",
+       "      <th>13</th>\n",
        "      <td>16</td>\n",
-       "      <td>23833</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.087061</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.362637</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.240078</td>\n",
+       "      <td>24390</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.089096</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.379693</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.234652</td>\n",
        "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>15</th>\n",
+       "      <th>14</th>\n",
        "      <td>17</td>\n",
-       "      <td>25548</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.093326</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.455963</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.204679</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25947</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.094784</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.474477</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.199764</td>\n",
        "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>16</th>\n",
+       "      <th>15</th>\n",
        "      <td>18</td>\n",
-       "      <td>25435</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.092913</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.548877</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.169279</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25819</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.094316</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.568793</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.165818</td>\n",
        "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>17</th>\n",
+       "      <th>16</th>\n",
        "      <td>19</td>\n",
-       "      <td>24410</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.089169</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.638046</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.139753</td>\n",
+       "      <td>24330</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.088877</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.657669</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.135139</td>\n",
        "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>18</th>\n",
+       "      <th>17</th>\n",
        "      <td>20</td>\n",
-       "      <td>22014</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.080416</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.718462</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.111929</td>\n",
+       "      <td>21824</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.079722</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.737392</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.108114</td>\n",
        "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>19</th>\n",
+       "      <th>18</th>\n",
        "      <td>21</td>\n",
-       "      <td>19212</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.070181</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.788643</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.088989</td>\n",
-       "      <td>11.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>18487</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.067532</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.804924</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.083899</td>\n",
+       "      <td>12.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>20</th>\n",
+       "      <th>19</th>\n",
        "      <td>22</td>\n",
-       "      <td>15967</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.058327</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.846970</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.068865</td>\n",
-       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>14883</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.054367</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.859291</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.063270</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>21</th>\n",
+       "      <th>20</th>\n",
        "      <td>23</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12496</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.045647</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.892617</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.051139</td>\n",
-       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>11619</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.042444</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.901735</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.047069</td>\n",
+       "      <td>21.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>22</th>\n",
+       "      <th>21</th>\n",
        "      <td>24</td>\n",
-       "      <td>9255</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.033808</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.926426</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.036493</td>\n",
-       "      <td>27.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8578</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.031335</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.933070</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.033583</td>\n",
+       "      <td>30.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>23</th>\n",
+       "      <th>22</th>\n",
        "      <td>25</td>\n",
-       "      <td>6781</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.024771</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.951196</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.026042</td>\n",
-       "      <td>38.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6290</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.022977</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.956047</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.024034</td>\n",
+       "      <td>42.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>24</th>\n",
+       "      <th>23</th>\n",
        "      <td>26</td>\n",
-       "      <td>4850</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.017717</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.968913</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.018285</td>\n",
-       "      <td>55.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4367</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.015953</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.972000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.016412</td>\n",
+       "      <td>61.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>25</th>\n",
+       "      <th>24</th>\n",
        "      <td>27</td>\n",
-       "      <td>3344</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.012216</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.981129</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.012450</td>\n",
-       "      <td>80.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2797</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.010217</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.982217</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.010402</td>\n",
+       "      <td>96.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>26</th>\n",
+       "      <th>25</th>\n",
        "      <td>28</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2025</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.007397</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.988526</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.007483</td>\n",
-       "      <td>134.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1919</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.007010</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.989227</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.007086</td>\n",
+       "      <td>141.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>27</th>\n",
+       "      <th>26</th>\n",
        "      <td>29</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1238</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.004522</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.993048</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.004554</td>\n",
-       "      <td>220.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1275</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.004658</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.993885</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.004686</td>\n",
+       "      <td>213.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>28</th>\n",
+       "      <th>27</th>\n",
        "      <td>30</td>\n",
-       "      <td>810</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002959</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.996007</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.002971</td>\n",
-       "      <td>337.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>724</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002645</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.996530</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002654</td>\n",
+       "      <td>377.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>29</th>\n",
+       "      <th>28</th>\n",
        "      <td>31</td>\n",
-       "      <td>457</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001669</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.997677</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.001673</td>\n",
-       "      <td>598.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>435</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001589</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.998119</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001592</td>\n",
+       "      <td>628.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>30</th>\n",
+       "      <th>29</th>\n",
        "      <td>32</td>\n",
-       "      <td>267</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000975</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.998652</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000977</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1024.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>252</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000921</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999039</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000921</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1085.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>31</th>\n",
+       "      <th>30</th>\n",
        "      <td>33</td>\n",
-       "      <td>155</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000566</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999218</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000567</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1765.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>121</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000442</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999481</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000442</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2261.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>32</th>\n",
+       "      <th>31</th>\n",
        "      <td>34</td>\n",
-       "      <td>99</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000362</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999580</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000362</td>\n",
-       "      <td>2764.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>68</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000248</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999730</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000248</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4025.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>33</th>\n",
+       "      <th>32</th>\n",
        "      <td>35</td>\n",
-       "      <td>46</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000168</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999748</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000168</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5950.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>38</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000139</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999868</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000139</td>\n",
+       "      <td>7203.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>34</th>\n",
+       "      <th>33</th>\n",
        "      <td>36</td>\n",
-       "      <td>30</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000110</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999858</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000110</td>\n",
-       "      <td>9124.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000058</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999927</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000058</td>\n",
+       "      <td>17108.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>35</th>\n",
+       "      <th>34</th>\n",
        "      <td>37</td>\n",
-       "      <td>22</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000080</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999938</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000080</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12442.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000029</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999956</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.000029</td>\n",
+       "      <td>34217.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>36</th>\n",
+       "      <th>35</th>\n",
        "      <td>38</td>\n",
        "      <td>6</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.000022</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999960</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999978</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.000022</td>\n",
-       "      <td>45623.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>45624.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>37</th>\n",
+       "      <th>36</th>\n",
        "      <td>39</td>\n",
        "      <td>4</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999974</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
-       "      <td>68436.0</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>38</th>\n",
-       "      <td>40</td>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999989</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.999993</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.000015</td>\n",
        "      <td>68437.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>39</th>\n",
-       "      <td>41</td>\n",
+       "      <th>37</th>\n",
+       "      <td>40</td>\n",
        "      <td>2</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.999996</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
        "      <td>0.000007</td>\n",
        "      <td>136875.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
-       "    <tr>\n",
-       "      <th>40</th>\n",
-       "      <td>42</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000004</td>\n",
-       "      <td>273750.0</td>\n",
-       "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
        "</div>"
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "    beds   freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay  1_in_n_delay\n",
-       "0      2      1  0.000004  0.000004    1.000000           1.0\n",
-       "1      3     11  0.000040  0.000044    0.916667           1.0\n",
-       "2      4     13  0.000047  0.000091    0.520000           2.0\n",
-       "3      5     52  0.000190  0.000281    0.675325           1.0\n",
-       "4      6    133  0.000486  0.000767    0.633333           2.0\n",
-       "5      7    416  0.001520  0.002287    0.664537           2.0\n",
-       "6      8    952  0.003478  0.005764    0.603295           2.0\n",
-       "7      9   2049  0.007485  0.013249    0.564930           2.0\n",
-       "8     10   3709  0.013549  0.026798    0.505589           2.0\n",
-       "9     11   6326  0.023109  0.049907    0.463036           2.0\n",
-       "10    12   9584  0.035010  0.084917    0.412286           2.0\n",
-       "11    13  13434  0.049074  0.133991    0.366249           3.0\n",
-       "12    14  17387  0.063514  0.197505    0.321582           3.0\n",
-       "13    15  21372  0.078071  0.275576    0.283302           4.0\n",
-       "14    16  23833  0.087061  0.362637    0.240078           4.0\n",
-       "15    17  25548  0.093326  0.455963    0.204679           5.0\n",
-       "16    18  25435  0.092913  0.548877    0.169279           6.0\n",
-       "17    19  24410  0.089169  0.638046    0.139753           7.0\n",
-       "18    20  22014  0.080416  0.718462    0.111929           9.0\n",
-       "19    21  19212  0.070181  0.788643    0.088989          11.0\n",
-       "20    22  15967  0.058327  0.846970    0.068865          15.0\n",
-       "21    23  12496  0.045647  0.892617    0.051139          20.0\n",
-       "22    24   9255  0.033808  0.926426    0.036493          27.0\n",
-       "23    25   6781  0.024771  0.951196    0.026042          38.0\n",
-       "24    26   4850  0.017717  0.968913    0.018285          55.0\n",
-       "25    27   3344  0.012216  0.981129    0.012450          80.0\n",
-       "26    28   2025  0.007397  0.988526    0.007483         134.0\n",
-       "27    29   1238  0.004522  0.993048    0.004554         220.0\n",
-       "28    30    810  0.002959  0.996007    0.002971         337.0\n",
-       "29    31    457  0.001669  0.997677    0.001673         598.0\n",
-       "30    32    267  0.000975  0.998652    0.000977        1024.0\n",
-       "31    33    155  0.000566  0.999218    0.000567        1765.0\n",
-       "32    34     99  0.000362  0.999580    0.000362        2764.0\n",
-       "33    35     46  0.000168  0.999748    0.000168        5950.0\n",
-       "34    36     30  0.000110  0.999858    0.000110        9124.0\n",
-       "35    37     22  0.000080  0.999938    0.000080       12442.0\n",
-       "36    38      6  0.000022  0.999960    0.000022       45623.0\n",
-       "37    39      4  0.000015  0.999974    0.000015       68436.0\n",
-       "38    40      4  0.000015  0.999989    0.000015       68437.0\n",
-       "39    41      2  0.000007  0.999996    0.000007      136875.0\n",
-       "40    42      1  0.000004  1.000000    0.000004      273750.0"
+       "0      3      3  0.000011  0.000011    1.000000           1.0\n",
+       "1      4     14  0.000051  0.000062    0.823529           1.0\n",
+       "2      5     51  0.000186  0.000248    0.750000           1.0\n",
+       "3      6    189  0.000690  0.000939    0.735409           1.0\n",
+       "4      7    466  0.001702  0.002641    0.644537           2.0\n",
+       "5      8   1178  0.004303  0.006944    0.619674           2.0\n",
+       "6      9   2324  0.008489  0.015434    0.550059           2.0\n",
+       "7     10   4106  0.014999  0.030433    0.492858           2.0\n",
+       "8     11   6748  0.024650  0.055083    0.447510           2.0\n",
+       "9     12  10234  0.037384  0.092468    0.404298           2.0\n",
+       "10    13  14118  0.051573  0.144040    0.358043           3.0\n",
+       "11    14  18167  0.066363  0.210404    0.315410           3.0\n",
+       "12    15  21953  0.080194  0.290597    0.275961           4.0\n",
+       "13    16  24390  0.089096  0.379693    0.234652           4.0\n",
+       "14    17  25947  0.094784  0.474477    0.199764           5.0\n",
+       "15    18  25819  0.094316  0.568793    0.165818           6.0\n",
+       "16    19  24330  0.088877  0.657669    0.135139           7.0\n",
+       "17    20  21824  0.079722  0.737392    0.108114           9.0\n",
+       "18    21  18487  0.067532  0.804924    0.083899          12.0\n",
+       "19    22  14883  0.054367  0.859291    0.063270          16.0\n",
+       "20    23  11619  0.042444  0.901735    0.047069          21.0\n",
+       "21    24   8578  0.031335  0.933070    0.033583          30.0\n",
+       "22    25   6290  0.022977  0.956047    0.024034          42.0\n",
+       "23    26   4367  0.015953  0.972000    0.016412          61.0\n",
+       "24    27   2797  0.010217  0.982217    0.010402          96.0\n",
+       "25    28   1919  0.007010  0.989227    0.007086         141.0\n",
+       "26    29   1275  0.004658  0.993885    0.004686         213.0\n",
+       "27    30    724  0.002645  0.996530    0.002654         377.0\n",
+       "28    31    435  0.001589  0.998119    0.001592         628.0\n",
+       "29    32    252  0.000921  0.999039    0.000921        1085.0\n",
+       "30    33    121  0.000442  0.999481    0.000442        2261.0\n",
+       "31    34     68  0.000248  0.999730    0.000248        4025.0\n",
+       "32    35     38  0.000139  0.999868    0.000139        7203.0\n",
+       "33    36     16  0.000058  0.999927    0.000058       17108.0\n",
+       "34    37      8  0.000029  0.999956    0.000029       34217.0\n",
+       "35    38      6  0.000022  0.999978    0.000022       45624.0\n",
+       "36    39      4  0.000015  0.999993    0.000015       68437.0\n",
+       "37    40      2  0.000007  1.000000    0.000007      136875.0"
       ]
      },
      "execution_count": 16,
@@ -5056,7 +5026,7 @@
      "name": "stdout",
      "output_type": "stream",
      "text": [
-      "0.06886542625227508 15.0\n"
+      "0.06326972210295412 16.0\n"
      ]
     }
    ],
@@ -5077,7 +5047,7 @@
      "name": "stdout",
      "output_type": "stream",
      "text": [
-      "0.01828532649675765 55.0\n"
+      "0.01641204878140444 61.0\n"
      ]
     }
    ],
@@ -5484,29 +5454,29 @@
        "      <td>0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0</td>\n",
        "      <td>22</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.069</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.069</td>\n",
-       "      <td>15</td>\n",
-       "      <td>15</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.063</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.063</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16</td>\n",
+       "      <td>16</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
        "      <td>0</td>\n",
        "      <td>0</td>\n",
        "      <td>26</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.018</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.018</td>\n",
-       "      <td>55</td>\n",
-       "      <td>55</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.016</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.016</td>\n",
+       "      <td>61</td>\n",
+       "      <td>61</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>14</td>\n",
        "      <td>12</td>\n",
        "      <td>0</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.022</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.111</td>\n",
-       "      <td>45</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.019</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.110</td>\n",
+       "      <td>52</td>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
@@ -5514,9 +5484,9 @@
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.051</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.092</td>\n",
-       "      <td>20</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.044</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.089</td>\n",
+       "      <td>23</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
@@ -5524,9 +5494,9 @@
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.043</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.094</td>\n",
-       "      <td>23</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.037</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.090</td>\n",
+       "      <td>27</td>\n",
        "      <td>11</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
@@ -5534,40 +5504,40 @@
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>6</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.047</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
-       "      <td>21</td>\n",
-       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.041</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.066</td>\n",
+       "      <td>24</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>6</th>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "      <td>7</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.044</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
-       "      <td>23</td>\n",
-       "      <td>14</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.039</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.066</td>\n",
+       "      <td>26</td>\n",
+       "      <td>15</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>7</th>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "      <td>8</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.047</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.058</td>\n",
-       "      <td>21</td>\n",
-       "      <td>17</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.042</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.053</td>\n",
+       "      <td>24</td>\n",
+       "      <td>19</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>8</th>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
        "      <td>8</td>\n",
        "      <td>9</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.046</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.058</td>\n",
-       "      <td>22</td>\n",
-       "      <td>17</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.041</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.053</td>\n",
+       "      <td>25</td>\n",
+       "      <td>19</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
@@ -5575,26 +5545,26 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "   dedicated_acute  dedicated_rehab  pooled  pdelay_acute  pdelay_rehab  \\\n",
-       "0                0                0      22         0.069         0.069   \n",
-       "1                0                0      26         0.018         0.018   \n",
-       "2               14               12       0         0.022         0.111   \n",
-       "3               11               11       4         0.051         0.092   \n",
-       "4               11               10       5         0.043         0.094   \n",
-       "5               10               10       6         0.047         0.070   \n",
-       "6               10                9       7         0.044         0.070   \n",
-       "7                9                9       8         0.047         0.058   \n",
-       "8                9                8       9         0.046         0.058   \n",
+       "0                0                0      22         0.063         0.063   \n",
+       "1                0                0      26         0.016         0.016   \n",
+       "2               14               12       0         0.019         0.110   \n",
+       "3               11               11       4         0.044         0.089   \n",
+       "4               11               10       5         0.037         0.090   \n",
+       "5               10               10       6         0.041         0.066   \n",
+       "6               10                9       7         0.039         0.066   \n",
+       "7                9                9       8         0.042         0.053   \n",
+       "8                9                8       9         0.041         0.053   \n",
        "\n",
        "   1_in_n_delay_acute  1_in_n_delay_rehab  \n",
-       "0                  15                  15  \n",
-       "1                  55                  55  \n",
-       "2                  45                   9  \n",
-       "3                  20                  11  \n",
-       "4                  23                  11  \n",
-       "5                  21                  14  \n",
-       "6                  23                  14  \n",
-       "7                  21                  17  \n",
-       "8                  22                  17  "
+       "0                  16                  16  \n",
+       "1                  61                  61  \n",
+       "2                  52                   9  \n",
+       "3                  23                  11  \n",
+       "4                  27                  11  \n",
+       "5                  24                  15  \n",
+       "6                  26                  15  \n",
+       "7                  24                  19  \n",
+       "8                  25                  19  "
       ]
      },
      "metadata": {},
diff --git a/outputs/figure1_asu.png b/outputs/figure1_asu.png
index a44618cd796f22c64d9604717dd07ff24522b706..1f5d5efa3866fc5df07e15784f53d2c7b0b2aef8 100644
GIT binary patch
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diff --git a/outputs/figure1_rehab.png b/outputs/figure1_rehab.png
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diff --git a/outputs/figure3_asu.png b/outputs/figure3_asu.png
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diff --git a/outputs/figure3_rehab.png b/outputs/figure3_rehab.png
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diff --git a/outputs/suptable1.csv b/outputs/suptable1.csv
index 26b30c6..9c60fad 100644
--- a/outputs/suptable1.csv
+++ b/outputs/suptable1.csv
@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 unit,beds,prob_delay_current,1_in_n_delay_current,prob_delay_no_complex_neuro,1_in_n_delay_no_complex_neuro
-asu,10,0.14,7.0,0.09,11.0
-asu,11,0.09,11.0,0.06,18.0
-asu,12,0.06,16.0,0.03,31.0
-asu,13,0.04,26.0,0.02,55.0
-asu,14,0.02,45.0,0.01,111.0
-asu,15,0.01,79.0,0.0,225.0
-rehab,12,0.11,9.0,0.05,20.0
+asu,10,0.13,8.0,0.08,12.0
+asu,11,0.09,12.0,0.05,20.0
+asu,12,0.06,18.0,0.03,36.0
+asu,13,0.03,30.0,0.01,67.0
+asu,14,0.02,52.0,0.01,131.0
+asu,15,0.01,95.0,0.0,277.0
+rehab,12,0.11,9.0,0.05,19.0
 rehab,13,0.08,13.0,0.03,32.0
 rehab,14,0.05,20.0,0.02,57.0
-rehab,15,0.03,31.0,0.01,101.0
-rehab,16,0.02,52.0,0.0,212.0
+rehab,15,0.03,32.0,0.01,110.0
+rehab,16,0.02,51.0,0.0,205.0
diff --git a/outputs/table2.csv b/outputs/table2.csv
index ce434f7..4eca20a 100644
--- a/outputs/table2.csv
+++ b/outputs/table2.csv
@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 unit,beds,prob_delay_current,1_in_n_delay_current,prob_delay_5%,1_in_n_delay_5%
-asu,9,0.19,5.0,,
-asu,10,0.14,7.0,0.16,6.0
-asu,11,0.09,11.0,0.11,9.0
-asu,12,0.06,16.0,0.08,13.0
-asu,13,0.04,26.0,0.05,20.0
-asu,14,0.02,45.0,0.03,33.0
-rehab,10,0.2,5.0,,
+asu,9,0.18,6.0,,
+asu,10,0.13,8.0,0.15,7.0
+asu,11,0.09,12.0,0.1,10.0
+asu,12,0.06,18.0,0.07,14.0
+asu,13,0.03,30.0,0.04,23.0
+asu,14,0.02,52.0,0.03,39.0
+rehab,10,0.21,5.0,,
 rehab,12,0.11,9.0,0.13,8.0
 rehab,13,0.08,13.0,0.09,11.0
-rehab,14,0.05,20.0,0.06,15.0
-rehab,15,0.03,31.0,0.04,23.0
-rehab,16,0.02,52.0,0.03,37.0
+rehab,14,0.05,20.0,0.06,16.0
+rehab,15,0.03,32.0,0.04,24.0
+rehab,16,0.02,51.0,0.03,37.0
diff --git a/outputs/table3.csv b/outputs/table3.csv
index 56d8aa4..c84d768 100644
--- a/outputs/table3.csv
+++ b/outputs/table3.csv
@@ -1,10 +1,10 @@
 dedicated_acute,dedicated_rehab,pooled,pdelay_acute,pdelay_rehab,1_in_n_delay_acute,1_in_n_delay_rehab
-0,0,22,0.069,0.069,15,15
-0,0,26,0.018,0.018,55,55
-14,12,0,0.022,0.111,45,9
-11,11,4,0.051,0.092,20,11
-11,10,5,0.043,0.094,23,11
-10,10,6,0.047,0.07,21,14
-10,9,7,0.044,0.07,23,14
-9,9,8,0.047,0.058,21,17
-9,8,9,0.046,0.058,22,17
+0,0,22,0.063,0.063,16,16
+0,0,26,0.016,0.016,61,61
+14,12,0,0.019,0.11,52,9
+11,11,4,0.044,0.089,23,11
+11,10,5,0.037,0.09,27,11
+10,10,6,0.041,0.066,24,15
+10,9,7,0.039,0.066,26,15
+9,9,8,0.042,0.053,24,19
+9,8,9,0.041,0.053,25,19
diff --git a/simulation/model.py b/simulation/model.py
index f0ee284..0ada015 100644
--- a/simulation/model.py
+++ b/simulation/model.py
@@ -165,7 +165,7 @@ def create_distributions(self, asu_param, rehab_param, distribution_type):
             # Get a list of the patients in that unit (ignore other attributes)
             patient_types = [attr for attr in dir(unit_param) if attr in
                              ["stroke", "stroke_esd", "stroke_noesd",
-                              "tia", "neuro", "other"]]
+                              "stroke_mortality", "tia", "neuro", "other"]]
 
             # For each patient type...
             for patient_type in patient_types:
@@ -253,13 +253,19 @@ def acute_stroke_unit(self, patient):
             msg=(f"Patient {patient.patient_id} ({patient.patient_type}) " +
                  f"post-ASU: {patient.post_asu_destination}"))
 
-        # If it is a stroke patient,find out if they are going to the ESD
-        # (stroke_esd) or not (stroke_noesd) - else, just same as patient_type
+        # If it is a stroke patient, find out if they are going to the ESD
+        # (stroke_esd) or not (stroke_noesd) or if they pass away
+        # (stroke_mortality). For other patients, just same as patient_type.
         if patient.patient_type == "stroke":
             if patient.post_asu_destination == "esd":
                 routing_type = "stroke_esd"
-            else:
+            elif patient.post_asu_destination == "rehab":
                 routing_type = "stroke_noesd"
+            elif patient.post_asu_destination == "other":
+                routing_type = "stroke_mortality"
+            else:
+                raise ValueError("Stroke post-asu destination '" +
+                                 f"{patient.post_asu_destination}' invalid")
         else:
             routing_type = patient.patient_type
 
diff --git a/simulation/parameters.py b/simulation/parameters.py
index 5b37d3c..ae19611 100644
--- a/simulation/parameters.py
+++ b/simulation/parameters.py
@@ -137,6 +137,7 @@ def __init__(
         self,
         stroke_no_esd_mean=7.4, stroke_no_esd_sd=8.61,
         stroke_esd_mean=4.6, stroke_esd_sd=4.8,
+        stroke_mortality_mean=7.0, stroke_mortality_sd=8.7,
         tia_mean=1.8, tia_sd=2.3,
         neuro_mean=4.0, neuro_sd=5.0,
         other_mean=3.8, other_sd=5.2
@@ -153,6 +154,10 @@ def __init__(
             Mean LOS for stroke patients with ESD.
         stroke_esd_sd: float
             SD of LOS for stroke patients with ESD.
+        stroke_mortality_mean: float
+            Mean LOS for stroke patients who pass away.
+        stroke_mortality_sd: float
+            SD of LOS for stroke patients who pass away.
         tia_mean: float
             Mean LOS for TIA patients.
         tia_sd: float
@@ -174,6 +179,10 @@ def __init__(
             "mean": stroke_esd_mean,
             "sd": stroke_esd_sd
         }
+        self.stroke_mortality = {
+            "mean": stroke_mortality_mean,
+            "sd": stroke_mortality_sd
+        }
         self.tia = {
             "mean": tia_mean,
             "sd": tia_sd

From d4868cd4104a464079eb0744ccd9d1b73972d74d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 21 May 2025 10:32:44 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 21/24] chore(readme): minor badge updates

---
 README.md | 6 ++----
 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-)

diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index 16d3201..b0c05c8 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -3,10 +3,10 @@
 # Stroke capacity planning model: python DES RAP
 
 [![python](https://img.shields.io/badge/-Python_3.13.1-blue?logo=python&logoColor=white)](https://www.python.org/)
-![licence](https://img.shields.io/badge/Licence-MIT-green.svg?labelColor=gray)
+![licence](https://img.shields.io/badge/🛡️_Licence-MIT-green.svg?labelColor=gray)
 [![Tests](https://github.com/pythonhealthdatascience/stroke_rap_python/actions/workflows/tests.yaml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/pythonhealthdatascience/stroke_rap_python/actions/workflows/tests.yaml)
 [![Linting](https://github.com/pythonhealthdatascience/stroke_rap_python/actions/workflows/lint.yaml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/pythonhealthdatascience/stroke_rap_python/actions/workflows/lint.yaml)
-[![ORCID: Heather](https://img.shields.io/badge/ORCID_Amy_Heather-0000--0002--6596--3479-brightgreen)](https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6596-3479)
+[![ORCID](https://img.shields.io/badge/ORCID_Amy_Heather-0000--0002--6596--3479-A6CE39?&logo=orcid&logoColor=white)](https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6596-3479)
 
 </div>
 
@@ -89,8 +89,6 @@ The original study used Simul8. Each of the outputs from that article have been
 
 To generate these, simply execute `notebooks/analysis.ipynb`.
 
-<!--TODO: Update this is not all executed in that single notebook-->
-
 #### Examples
 
 **Figure 1**

From c4a41b0dca9563d3e4333ceceaf19374ab03a189 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 21 May 2025 10:33:42 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 22/24] test(backtest): regenerate expected results following
 changes to the model

---
 notebooks/generate_exp_results.ipynb  |  130 +-
 tests/exp_results/asu_occupancy.csv   |   45 +-
 tests/exp_results/audit_list.csv      | 3554 ++++++++++++-------------
 tests/exp_results/rehab_occupancy.csv |   34 +-
 4 files changed, 1877 insertions(+), 1886 deletions(-)

diff --git a/notebooks/generate_exp_results.ipynb b/notebooks/generate_exp_results.ipynb
index 78b89f9..035df59 100644
--- a/notebooks/generate_exp_results.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/generate_exp_results.ipynb
@@ -89,26 +89,26 @@
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
        "      <td>1096</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>11</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>1097</td>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
        "      <td>10</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>1098</td>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>1099</td>\n",
        "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>10</td>\n",
+       "      <td>8</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
        "</table>\n",
@@ -117,10 +117,10 @@
       "text/plain": [
        "   time  asu_occupancy  rehab_occupancy\n",
        "0  1095              7               12\n",
-       "1  1096              5               11\n",
-       "2  1097              5               10\n",
-       "3  1098              4               10\n",
-       "4  1099              5               10"
+       "1  1096              3               10\n",
+       "2  1097              3               10\n",
+       "3  1098              3                8\n",
+       "4  1099              5                8"
       ]
      },
      "metadata": {},
@@ -185,46 +185,46 @@
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>0</th>\n",
        "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000548</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.000548</td>\n",
+       "      <td>5</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002740</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.002740</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
        "      <td>2</td>\n",
-       "      <td>12</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.006575</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.007123</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.923077</td>\n",
+       "      <td>19</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.010411</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.013151</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.791667</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
        "      <td>3</td>\n",
-       "      <td>39</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.021370</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.028493</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.750000</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>41</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.022466</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.035616</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.630769</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
        "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>76</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.041644</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.070137</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.593750</td>\n",
+       "      <td>94</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.051507</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.087123</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.591195</td>\n",
        "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
        "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>134</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.073425</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.143562</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.511450</td>\n",
+       "      <td>158</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.086575</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.173699</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.498423</td>\n",
        "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
@@ -233,11 +233,11 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "   beds  freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay  1_in_n_delay\n",
-       "0     1     1  0.000548  0.000548    1.000000           1.0\n",
-       "1     2    12  0.006575  0.007123    0.923077           1.0\n",
-       "2     3    39  0.021370  0.028493    0.750000           1.0\n",
-       "3     4    76  0.041644  0.070137    0.593750           2.0\n",
-       "4     5   134  0.073425  0.143562    0.511450           2.0"
+       "0     1     5  0.002740  0.002740    1.000000           1.0\n",
+       "1     2    19  0.010411  0.013151    0.791667           1.0\n",
+       "2     3    41  0.022466  0.035616    0.630769           2.0\n",
+       "3     4    94  0.051507  0.087123    0.591195           2.0\n",
+       "4     5   158  0.086575  0.173699    0.498423           2.0"
       ]
      },
      "metadata": {},
@@ -275,47 +275,47 @@
        "  <tbody>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>0</th>\n",
-       "      <td>3</td>\n",
-       "      <td>9</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.004932</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.004932</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001096</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.001096</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>1</th>\n",
-       "      <td>4</td>\n",
-       "      <td>25</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.013699</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.018630</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.735294</td>\n",
+       "      <td>1</td>\n",
+       "      <td>17</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.009315</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.010411</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.894737</td>\n",
        "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>2</th>\n",
-       "      <td>5</td>\n",
-       "      <td>74</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.040548</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.059178</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.685185</td>\n",
-       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
+       "      <td>2</td>\n",
+       "      <td>6</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.003288</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.013699</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.240000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>3</th>\n",
-       "      <td>6</td>\n",
-       "      <td>147</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.080548</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.139726</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.576471</td>\n",
+       "      <td>3</td>\n",
+       "      <td>18</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.009863</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.023562</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.418605</td>\n",
        "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "    <tr>\n",
        "      <th>4</th>\n",
-       "      <td>7</td>\n",
-       "      <td>176</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.096438</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.236164</td>\n",
-       "      <td>0.408353</td>\n",
+       "      <td>4</td>\n",
+       "      <td>30</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.016438</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.040000</td>\n",
+       "      <td>0.410959</td>\n",
        "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
        "    </tr>\n",
        "  </tbody>\n",
@@ -324,11 +324,11 @@
       ],
       "text/plain": [
        "   beds  freq       pct     c_pct  prob_delay  1_in_n_delay\n",
-       "0     3     9  0.004932  0.004932    1.000000           1.0\n",
-       "1     4    25  0.013699  0.018630    0.735294           1.0\n",
-       "2     5    74  0.040548  0.059178    0.685185           1.0\n",
-       "3     6   147  0.080548  0.139726    0.576471           2.0\n",
-       "4     7   176  0.096438  0.236164    0.408353           2.0"
+       "0     0     2  0.001096  0.001096    1.000000           1.0\n",
+       "1     1    17  0.009315  0.010411    0.894737           1.0\n",
+       "2     2     6  0.003288  0.013699    0.240000           4.0\n",
+       "3     3    18  0.009863  0.023562    0.418605           2.0\n",
+       "4     4    30  0.016438  0.040000    0.410959           2.0"
       ]
      },
      "metadata": {},
diff --git a/tests/exp_results/asu_occupancy.csv b/tests/exp_results/asu_occupancy.csv
index 7f544e8..f3386a6 100644
--- a/tests/exp_results/asu_occupancy.csv
+++ b/tests/exp_results/asu_occupancy.csv
@@ -1,28 +1,19 @@
 beds,freq,pct,c_pct,prob_delay,1_in_n_delay
-1,1,0.000547945205479452,0.000547945205479452,1.0,1.0
-2,12,0.006575342465753425,0.007123287671232877,0.923076923076923,1.0
-3,39,0.021369863013698632,0.02849315068493151,0.75,1.0
-4,76,0.041643835616438356,0.07013698630136986,0.59375,2.0
-5,134,0.07342465753424658,0.14356164383561643,0.5114503816793894,2.0
-6,215,0.1178082191780822,0.26136986301369863,0.45073375262054505,2.0
-7,226,0.12383561643835617,0.3852054794520548,0.32147937411095306,3.0
-8,266,0.14575342465753424,0.530958904109589,0.27450980392156865,4.0
-9,245,0.13424657534246576,0.6652054794520548,0.20181219110378915,5.0
-10,163,0.08931506849315068,0.7545205479452055,0.11837327523602033,8.0
-11,165,0.09041095890410959,0.8449315068493151,0.10700389105058367,9.0
-12,108,0.05917808219178082,0.9041095890410958,0.06545454545454546,15.0
-13,89,0.04876712328767123,0.952876712328767,0.05117883841288097,20.0
-14,34,0.01863013698630137,0.9715068493150684,0.019176536943034405,52.0
-15,15,0.00821917808219178,0.9797260273972601,0.008389261744966443,119.0
-16,19,0.010410958904109589,0.9901369863013697,0.010514665190924186,95.0
-17,6,0.0032876712328767125,0.9934246575342465,0.003309431880860453,302.0
-18,5,0.0027397260273972603,0.9961643835616437,0.0027502750275027505,364.0
-19,2,0.001095890410958904,0.9972602739726026,0.001098901098901099,910.0
-20,1,0.000547945205479452,0.997808219178082,0.0005491488193300384,1821.0
-21,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9983561643835615,0.0005488474204171241,1822.0
-22,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9989041095890409,0.0005485463521667582,1823.0
-23,0,0.0,0.9989041095890409,0.0,inf
-24,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9994520547945203,0.0005482456140350878,1824.0
-25,0,0.0,0.9994520547945203,0.0,inf
-26,0,0.0,0.9994520547945203,0.0,inf
-27,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9999999999999997,0.0005479452054794522,1825.0
+1,5,0.0027397260273972603,0.0027397260273972603,1.0,1.0
+2,19,0.010410958904109589,0.01315068493150685,0.7916666666666666,1.0
+3,41,0.022465753424657533,0.03561643835616438,0.6307692307692307,2.0
+4,94,0.05150684931506849,0.08712328767123287,0.5911949685534592,2.0
+5,158,0.08657534246575342,0.17369863013698628,0.498422712933754,2.0
+6,235,0.12876712328767123,0.30246575342465754,0.4257246376811594,2.0
+7,256,0.14027397260273972,0.44273972602739725,0.31683168316831684,3.0
+8,251,0.13753424657534247,0.5802739726027397,0.23701605288007555,4.0
+9,249,0.13643835616438357,0.7167123287671233,0.19036697247706422,5.0
+10,183,0.10027397260273972,0.816986301369863,0.12273641851106638,8.0
+11,161,0.08821917808219178,0.9052054794520549,0.09745762711864406,10.0
+12,85,0.04657534246575343,0.9517808219178083,0.0489349453080023,20.0
+13,44,0.02410958904109589,0.9758904109589042,0.024705221785513754,40.0
+14,19,0.010410958904109589,0.9863013698630138,0.010555555555555554,95.0
+15,12,0.006575342465753425,0.9928767123287672,0.006622516556291391,151.0
+16,7,0.0038356164383561643,0.9967123287671233,0.003848268279274326,260.0
+17,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9972602739726028,0.0005494505494505495,1820.0
+18,5,0.0027397260273972603,1.0,0.0027397260273972603,365.0
diff --git a/tests/exp_results/audit_list.csv b/tests/exp_results/audit_list.csv
index fcc63cc..8b6d365 100644
--- a/tests/exp_results/audit_list.csv
+++ b/tests/exp_results/audit_list.csv
@@ -1,1826 +1,1826 @@
 time,asu_occupancy,rehab_occupancy
 1095,7,12
-1096,5,11
-1097,5,10
-1098,4,10
-1099,5,10
-1100,5,10
-1101,6,10
-1102,8,10
-1103,10,10
-1104,9,10
-1105,10,10
-1106,9,11
-1107,7,11
-1108,9,9
-1109,10,9
-1110,11,9
-1111,8,8
-1112,8,8
-1113,7,8
-1114,7,8
-1115,9,8
-1116,11,6
-1117,8,6
-1118,6,7
-1119,7,7
-1120,8,7
-1121,9,7
-1122,7,8
-1123,11,8
-1124,11,8
-1125,12,7
-1126,11,8
-1127,11,8
-1128,7,8
+1096,3,10
+1097,3,10
+1098,3,8
+1099,5,8
+1100,5,7
+1101,6,7
+1102,8,7
+1103,7,7
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diff --git a/tests/exp_results/rehab_occupancy.csv b/tests/exp_results/rehab_occupancy.csv
index d20032c..21480fd 100644
--- a/tests/exp_results/rehab_occupancy.csv
+++ b/tests/exp_results/rehab_occupancy.csv
@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 beds,freq,pct,c_pct,prob_delay,1_in_n_delay
-3,9,0.004931506849315068,0.004931506849315068,1.0,1.0
-4,25,0.0136986301369863,0.01863013698630137,0.7352941176470588,1.0
-5,74,0.040547945205479455,0.05917808219178082,0.6851851851851852,1.0
-6,147,0.08054794520547945,0.13972602739726026,0.5764705882352942,2.0
-7,176,0.09643835616438357,0.23616438356164382,0.4083526682134571,2.0
-8,247,0.13534246575342465,0.3715068493150685,0.36430678466076694,3.0
-9,308,0.16876712328767124,0.5402739726027397,0.31237322515212984,3.0
-10,331,0.18136986301369862,0.7216438356164383,0.2513287775246773,4.0
-11,220,0.12054794520547946,0.8421917808219177,0.14313597918022122,7.0
-12,117,0.06410958904109589,0.9063013698630136,0.07073760580411124,14.0
-13,71,0.03890410958904109,0.9452054794520547,0.04115942028985507,24.0
-14,46,0.025205479452054796,0.9704109589041094,0.02597402597402598,38.0
-15,24,0.01315068493150685,0.9835616438356163,0.01337047353760446,75.0
-16,14,0.007671232876712329,0.9912328767123286,0.007739082365948039,129.0
-17,7,0.0038356164383561643,0.9950684931506848,0.0038546255506607934,259.0
-18,1,0.000547945205479452,0.9956164383561642,0.0005503577325261421,1817.0
-19,8,0.004383561643835616,0.9999999999999998,0.004383561643835617,228.0
+0,2,0.001095890410958904,0.001095890410958904,1.0,1.0
+1,17,0.009315068493150684,0.010410958904109589,0.8947368421052632,1.0
+2,6,0.0032876712328767125,0.0136986301369863,0.24000000000000002,4.0
+3,18,0.009863013698630137,0.023561643835616437,0.4186046511627907,2.0
+4,30,0.01643835616438356,0.039999999999999994,0.4109589041095891,2.0
+5,66,0.03616438356164384,0.07616438356164383,0.47482014388489213,2.0
+6,106,0.05808219178082192,0.13424657534246576,0.4326530612244898,2.0
+7,234,0.12821917808219177,0.2624657534246575,0.488517745302714,2.0
+8,286,0.1567123287671233,0.41917808219178077,0.37385620915032686,3.0
+9,317,0.1736986301369863,0.592876712328767,0.2929759704251387,3.0
+10,239,0.13095890410958905,0.7238356164383561,0.18092354277062833,6.0
+11,194,0.1063013698630137,0.8301369863013699,0.12805280528052804,8.0
+12,132,0.07232876712328767,0.9024657534246576,0.08014571948998178,12.0
+13,82,0.044931506849315066,0.9473972602739726,0.047426257952573735,21.0
+14,66,0.03616438356164384,0.9835616438356165,0.03676880222841226,27.0
+15,21,0.011506849315068493,0.995068493150685,0.011563876651982379,86.0
+16,9,0.004931506849315068,1.0,0.004931506849315068,203.0

From 10b022d687be99f6be757f26163db716ad3c0eb5 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 21 May 2025 10:39:02 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 23/24] fix(test): set high LOS for stroke mortality in
 test_long_los, and add 1_in_n_delay to expected output in
 test_get_occupancy_freq (both of these are related to recent changes in the
 model, which altered the LOS param and output table)

---
 tests/test_functionaltest.py | 1 +
 tests/test_unittest.py       | 6 ++++--
 2 files changed, 5 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)

diff --git a/tests/test_functionaltest.py b/tests/test_functionaltest.py
index aa18d1d..344a2bd 100644
--- a/tests/test_functionaltest.py
+++ b/tests/test_functionaltest.py
@@ -98,6 +98,7 @@ def test_long_los(stroke_no_esd_mean):
     param = Param(
         asu_los=ASULOS(stroke_no_esd_mean=stroke_no_esd_mean,
                        stroke_esd_mean=los,
+                       stroke_mortality_mean=los,
                        tia_mean=los,
                        neuro_mean=los,
                        other_mean=los),
diff --git a/tests/test_unittest.py b/tests/test_unittest.py
index 18d167a..898f658 100644
--- a/tests/test_unittest.py
+++ b/tests/test_unittest.py
@@ -231,6 +231,7 @@ def test_get_occupancy_freq():
     expected_pct = [0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1]
     expected_c_pct = [0.4, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0]
     expected_prob_delay = [1.0, 0.3/0.7, 0.2/0.9, 0.1/1.0]
+    expected_1_in_n_delay = [1, 2, 4, 10]
 
     # Create a Runner instance
     runner = Runner(None)
@@ -240,7 +241,7 @@ def test_get_occupancy_freq():
 
     # Check the structure of the DataFrame
     assert list(result_df.columns) == [
-        "beds", "freq", "pct", "c_pct", "prob_delay"]
+        "beds", "freq", "pct", "c_pct", "prob_delay", "1_in_n_delay"]
 
     # Check the values
     assert list(result_df["beds"]) == expected_beds
@@ -248,8 +249,9 @@ def test_get_occupancy_freq():
     assert np.allclose(result_df["pct"], expected_pct)
     assert np.allclose(result_df["c_pct"], expected_c_pct)
 
-    # Check prob_delay calculation
+    # Check prob_delay and 1 in n delay calculations
     assert np.allclose(result_df["prob_delay"], expected_prob_delay)
+    assert np.allclose(result_df["1_in_n_delay"], expected_1_in_n_delay)
 
 
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

From dc1c64a5e9536c75b1f5a7afd2a41e1f18afc7cd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: amyheather <a.heather2@exeter.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, 21 May 2025 10:53:39 +0100
Subject: [PATCH 24/24] style(lint): linting notebooks

---
 notebooks/analysis.ipynb       | 68 +++++++++++++++++++++++++---------
 notebooks/parameters_csv.ipynb | 21 ++++++-----
 2 files changed, 62 insertions(+), 27 deletions(-)

diff --git a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
index 53bcbab..8122974 100644
--- a/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/analysis.ipynb
@@ -3850,9 +3850,8 @@
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
     "def make_delay_table(\n",
-    "        scenario, scenario_name, base=base_overall, base_name=\"current\",\n",
-    "        asu_beds=list(range(9,15)), rehab_beds=list(range(10,17))\n",
-    "    ):\n",
+    "    scenario, scenario_name, base, base_name, asu_beds, rehab_beds\n",
+    "):\n",
     "    \"\"\"\n",
     "    Create table with the probability of delay and 1 in n patients delayed,\n",
     "    for the base case and a provided scenario.\n",
@@ -3884,8 +3883,8 @@
     "        tab_segment = []\n",
     "\n",
     "        # Loop over base case and scenario...\n",
-    "        for scenario_name, df in {base_name: base[unit_name],\n",
-    "                                  scenario_name: scenario[unit_name]}.items():\n",
+    "        for name, df in {base_name: base[unit_name],\n",
+    "                         scenario_name: scenario[unit_name]}.items():\n",
     "\n",
     "            # Extract results for specified beds\n",
     "            df = df[df[\"beds\"].isin(unit_beds)][\n",
@@ -3893,8 +3892,8 @@
     "\n",
     "            # Rename column to be specific to scenario\n",
     "            df = df.rename(columns={\n",
-    "                \"prob_delay\": f\"prob_delay_{scenario_name}\",\n",
-    "                \"1_in_n_delay\": f\"1_in_n_delay_{scenario_name}\"})\n",
+    "                \"prob_delay\": f\"prob_delay_{name}\",\n",
+    "                \"1_in_n_delay\": f\"1_in_n_delay_{name}\"})\n",
     "\n",
     "            # Save dataframe to list\n",
     "            tab_segment.append(df)\n",
@@ -4100,14 +4099,16 @@
        "12             37.0  "
       ]
      },
-     "execution_count": 11,
      "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
+     "output_type": "display_data"
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "full_tab2 = make_delay_table(scenario=s1_overall, scenario_name=\"5%\")\n",
-    "full_tab2"
+    "full_tab2 = make_delay_table(\n",
+    "    scenario=s1_overall, scenario_name=\"5%\", base=base_overall,\n",
+    "    base_name=\"current\", asu_beds=list(range(9,15)),\n",
+    "    rehab_beds=list(range(10,17)))\n",
+    "display(full_tab2)"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -4546,6 +4547,8 @@
     "# Make table\n",
     "sup_tab1 = make_delay_table(scenario=s4_overall,\n",
     "                            scenario_name=\"no_complex_neuro\",\n",
+    "                            base=base_overall,\n",
+    "                            base_name=\"current\",\n",
     "                            asu_beds=list(range(10,16)),\n",
     "                            rehab_beds=list(range(12,17)))\n",
     "\n",
@@ -4993,9 +4996,8 @@
        "37    40      2  0.000007  1.000000    0.000007      136875.0"
       ]
      },
-     "execution_count": 16,
      "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
+     "output_type": "display_data"
     }
    ],
    "source": [
@@ -5007,7 +5009,7 @@
     "\n",
     "# Hijack the get_occupancy_freq() method from runner to calculate stats\n",
     "pooled_results = base_runner.get_occupancy_freq(combined_audit, unit=\"pooled\")\n",
-    "pooled_results"
+    "display(pooled_results)"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -5075,8 +5077,27 @@
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
     "class PooledDelay:\n",
+    "    \"\"\"\n",
+    "    Class to calculate probability of delays in scenarios with partial pooling\n",
+    "    of acute and rehab beds.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    Attributes\n",
+    "    ----------\n",
+    "    asu : pd.Series\n",
+    "        Frequency distribution of ASU bed occupancies.\n",
+    "    rehab : pd.Series\n",
+    "        Frequency distribution of rehab bed occupancies.\n",
+    "    asu_beds : int or float\n",
+    "        Number of dedicated ASU beds (excluding pooled beds).\n",
+    "    rehab_beds : int or float\n",
+    "        Number of dedicated rehab beds (excluding pooled beds).\n",
+    "    pooled_beds : int or float\n",
+    "        Number of beds that can be used by either unit.\n",
+    "    \"\"\"\n",
     "    def __init__(self, base_results):\n",
     "        \"\"\"\n",
+    "        Initialise the PooledDelay object with base simulation results.\n",
+    "\n",
     "        Parameters\n",
     "        ----------\n",
     "        base_results: dict\n",
@@ -5103,8 +5124,6 @@
     "        occ_freq : pd.Series\n",
     "            Frequencies of each number of beds, with the index representing the\n",
     "            occupancy.\n",
-    "        min_occ : int\n",
-    "            The minimum number of beds for which we want to check probability.\n",
     "        threshold : int\n",
     "            The threshold number of beds for comparison.\n",
     "        comparison : str\n",
@@ -5114,7 +5133,8 @@
     "        Returns\n",
     "        -------\n",
     "        float\n",
-    "            The probability of an occupancy greater than or equal to min_occ.\n",
+    "            Probability that the occupancy meets the specified comparison\n",
+    "            condition.\n",
     "        \"\"\"\n",
     "        # Calculate total frequency\n",
     "        total_freq = occ_freq.sum()\n",
@@ -5129,6 +5149,8 @@
     "        elif comparison == \"lt\":\n",
     "            # Less than\n",
     "            filtered_freq = occ_freq[occ_freq.index < threshold].sum()\n",
+    "        else:\n",
+    "            raise ValueError(f\"Comparison '{comparison}' not valid.\")\n",
     "\n",
     "        # Calculate and return the probability\n",
     "        return filtered_freq / total_freq\n",
@@ -5141,6 +5163,11 @@
     "        ----------\n",
     "        unit: str\n",
     "            Name of unit to investigate (\"asu\", \"rehab\").\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        Returns\n",
+    "        -------\n",
+    "        float\n",
+    "            Probability that only the specified unit has delays.\n",
     "        \"\"\"\n",
     "        # Determine name of other unit, depending on which you are focussing on\n",
     "        other_unit = \"rehab\" if unit == \"asu\" else \"asu\"\n",
@@ -5262,6 +5289,13 @@
     "            Number of dedicated rehabilitation beds (excluding pooled beds).\n",
     "        pooled_beds: int\n",
     "            Number of beds that can be used by either unit.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "        Returns\n",
+    "        -------\n",
+    "        pool_results: dict\n",
+    "            Dictionary containing number of dedicated and pooled beds,\n",
+    "            probability of delay for each unit, and 1 in n patients delayed\n",
+    "            for each unit.\n",
     "        \"\"\"\n",
     "        # Get counts of dedicated and pooled beds\n",
     "        self.asu_beds = asu_beds\n",
diff --git a/notebooks/parameters_csv.ipynb b/notebooks/parameters_csv.ipynb
index 66bbb3a..f856842 100644
--- a/notebooks/parameters_csv.ipynb
+++ b/notebooks/parameters_csv.ipynb
@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
+    "# pylint: disable=missing-module-docstring\n",
+    "from IPython.display import display\n",
     "import pandas as pd\n",
     "\n",
     "from simulation.parameters import (\n",
@@ -126,28 +128,27 @@
     {
      "data": {
       "text/plain": [
-       "{'asu_arrivals': <simulation.parameters.ASUArrivals at 0x74dbb0272850>,\n",
-       " 'rehab_arrivals': <simulation.parameters.RehabArrivals at 0x74dbb0272990>,\n",
-       " 'asu_los': <simulation.parameters.ASULOS at 0x74dae09ca710>,\n",
-       " 'rehab_los': <simulation.parameters.RehabLOS at 0x74dae08f0f50>,\n",
-       " 'asu_routing': <simulation.parameters.ASURouting at 0x74dae08f1090>,\n",
-       " 'rehab_routing': <simulation.parameters.RehabRouting at 0x74dae085c2d0>,\n",
+       "{'asu_arrivals': <simulation.parameters.ASUArrivals at 0x7435cc4a6850>,\n",
+       " 'rehab_arrivals': <simulation.parameters.RehabArrivals at 0x7435cc4a6990>,\n",
+       " 'asu_los': <simulation.parameters.ASULOS at 0x7434fc38a710>,\n",
+       " 'rehab_los': <simulation.parameters.RehabLOS at 0x7434fc2c8f50>,\n",
+       " 'asu_routing': <simulation.parameters.ASURouting at 0x7434fc2c9090>,\n",
+       " 'rehab_routing': <simulation.parameters.RehabRouting at 0x7434fc2382d0>,\n",
        " 'warm_up_period': 1095,\n",
        " 'data_collection_period': 1825,\n",
        " 'number_of_runs': 150,\n",
        " 'audit_interval': 1,\n",
        " 'cores': 1,\n",
-       " 'logger': <simulation.logging.SimLogger at 0x74dae06c4980>,\n",
+       " 'logger': <simulation.logging.SimLogger at 0x7434fc090ad0>,\n",
        " '_initialised': True}"
       ]
      },
-     "execution_count": 3,
      "metadata": {},
-     "output_type": "execute_result"
+     "output_type": "display_data"
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "setup_param_from_csv(csv_path=\"../inputs/parameters.csv\").__dict__"
+    "display(setup_param_from_csv(csv_path=\"../inputs/parameters.csv\").__dict__)"
    ]
   }
  ],