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README.md
predictions.md

README.md

Open Philanthropy predictions

Unofficially ported Open Philanthropy Project predictions.

PredictionBook account

Background

https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/internal-forecasts

https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/efforts-improve-accuracy-our-judgments-and-forecasts

In particular, see https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/efforts-improve-accuracy-our-judgments-and-forecasts#comment-320 in light of the comment above it, that explains Open Phil's plan around public updates on their internal forecasts.

"known on" dates

  • For predictions with no date of determination, we use a "known on" date 10 years from the first day of the month following the grant month.
  • For predictions with a date of determination, we use a "known on" date 2 years after the date of determination, and include the date of determination in the prediction text. This is regardless of whether the date of determination has already passed.

Finding the grants with predictions

https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aopenphilanthropy.org%20%22Predictions%20relevant%20to%20the%20grant%22

https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aopenphilanthropy.org%20%22Internal%20forecasts%22

https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aopenphilanthropy.org%20%22recording%20the%20following%20forecasts%22

https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aopenphilanthropy.org%20%22implicit%20predictions%20that%20are%20playing%20a%20role%20in%20our%20decisions%22

Acknowledgements

The predictions are essentially copied off Open Philanthropy Project's website.

Vipul Naik asked me to work this task and sponsored its completion.

License

The predictions are essentially copied off Open Philanthropy Project's website, so the license is probably the CC license Open Phil uses: Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 United States License.