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Simulating the 2018-19 NBA Season

The 2018-19 NBA season begins on Tuesday, October 16. This project trains a model on the past two years of NBA games, and uses it to simulate five hundred iterations of the 2018-19 NBA season. Ultimately, we achieve a full set of projected standings for the year.

A full description of the project can be found at saisenberg.com.

Getting started

Prerequisite software

  • Python (suggested install through Anaconda)

  • R

Prerequisite libraries

  • Python:

    • bs4, datetime, math, numpy, operator, os, pandas, random (all installed with Anaconda)
  • R:

lib <- c('dplyr', 'ggplot2', 'gtools', 'htmltab', 'lubridate', 'maps', 'openxlsx', 'splitstackshape', 'stringi', 'stringr', 'tidyr')
install_packages(lib)

Instructions for use

Skip to step 4 to bypass all web scraping, data cleaning, and data aggregation.

1. Web scraping - 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons

a) Run /r/drafts.R

This program scrapes and cleans all post-2000 NBA draft history from basketball-reference. The output of /r/drafts.R can also be found at /data/drafts.csv.

b) Run /r/rookie_pred.R

This program scrapes and cleans the last ten years' worth of rookie-year statistics from basketball-reference and imputes rookie statistics based on draft pick. The output of /r/rookie_pred.R can also be found at /data/rookie_pred.csv.

c) Run /r/nba_stats.R

This program scrapes and cleans basketball-reference for player statistics. The output of /r/nba_stats.R can be also be found at /data/stats.csv, /data/seasons.csv, and /data/seasons_adv.csv.

d) Run /r/records.R

This program scrapes basketball-reference for historical team win-loss records. The output of /r/records.R can also be found at /data/records.csv.

e) Run /r/nba_proj.R

This program aggregates season-by-season player statistics at the lineup level for 2016-17 and 2017-18 games. The output of /r/nba_proj.R can also be found at /data/results.csv.

2. Train model

f) Run the code contained in /python/nba_select_model.ipynb

This code trains a series of models (logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, and gradient boosted trees) on 2016-17 and 2017-18 season data. In this case, random forests consistently produce the best results.

g) Run the code contained in /python/nba_tune_model.ipynb

This code repeatedly performs grid search to identify optimal parameters of the random forest model. These parameters are a max_depth of 4, max_features of 5, and min_samples_leaf of 5.

3. Web scraping - 2018-19 season

h) Run the code contained in /python/depth_chart_scraper.ipynb

This code scrapes and organizes NBA depth charts from ESPN.

i) Run /r/2018-19_schedule.R

This program scrapes basketball-reference for each team's 2018-19 schedule. The output of /r/2018-19_schedule.R can also be found at /data/schedules.csv.

j) Run /r/2018-19_stats.R

This program aggregates and organizes statistics for all 2018-19 NBA players and merges results with the team depth charts (see step (h)). The output of /r/2018-19_stats.R can also be found at /data/depth.csv.

4. Simulate 2018-19 season

k) Run /python/fullPrep.py and /python/fullSim.py (consecutively)

Make sure to change your working directory to /python/ in both .py files.

  • fullPrep.py loads and prepares the necessary functions and .csv files for simulating an NBA season.

  • fullSim.py simulates the NBA regular season and playoffs [num_season_sim] and [num_playoff_sim] number of times, respectively.

    • The following fullSim parameters can be changed:
      • num_season_sim (default = 1) - the number of regular seasons to simulate
      • num_playoffs_sim (default = 1) - the number of playoffs to simulate (using the mean playoff seedings of all season simulations)
      • win_prob_power (default = 1.4) - the power to which every lineup's respective win probability is raised
      • injury_freq (default = 700 for regular season; 900 for playoffs) - the probability of player injury. Note that higher numbers corresponds with fewer injuries; an injury_freq of 700, for instance, means that one in every seven hundred players will suffer an injury
      • injury_print (default = False) - whether injuries are printed throughout each simulated season

Author

License

This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the LICENSE.md file for details.

Acknowledgements

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Projecting final standings of the 2018-19 NBA season

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