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2018 - 2019 Predictions

These are the weekly predictions for MVP (using last year's successful model):

Kevin Durant Nikola Jokic LeBron James Joel Embiid Giannis Antetokounmpo
0.250 0.250 0.188 0.188 0.063

These predictions were made prior to the start of the season using a newer approach as opposed to last year.

Player Name Rank
Giannis Antetokounmpo 0.899(1)
LeBron James 0.871(2)
James Harden 0.835(3)
Anthony Davis 0.830(4)
Karl Anthony Towns 0.73(5)
Kawhi Leonard 0.55(6)
Nikola Jokic 0.33(7)

Upon running my new model on last season's (2018) field, these were the results:

James Harden Anthony Davis LeBron James Karl Anthony Towns (?)
1.559(1) 1.036(2) 0.799(3) 0.608(4)

Notes

data/mvpForecast.csv contains forecasted advanced stats for ESPN's top 20 NBA players of the 2018-2019 season.

forecast.py is responsible for generating the aforementioned future stats.

predict.py is responsible for ranking the MVP candidates based on the model.

mvp_statline.py is an independent script that predicts the per-game and advanced stats of this season's MVP.

mvp_statline's predictions for this season's MVP

ppg rpg apg per vorp +/- ts%
28.8 7.1 7.3 29.0 8.67 10.2 0.61

2017 - 2018 Predictions

Final frontrunner: James Harden

ppg per vorp +/- ts%
30.4 29.8 8.3 10.9 0.619

Predictions as of April 12, 2018

James Harden LeBron James Anthony Davis Russell Westbrook
29%(1) 21%(2) 14%(3) 7%(4)

In October of 2017, mvp-predict generated this as the projected MVP statline:

ppg per vorp +/- ts%
27.63 29.01 8.79 10.24 0.606