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powder.py

README.md

This repo finds the probability of a powder day in a certain location. It uses NOAA weather station data to gather information about snow.

I have published a blog post titled "Probability of a powder day" that details more of the computation/motivation of this.

Basically, I model waiting for a powder day as a inhomogeneous Poisson process and say that the parameter lambda is fairly constant over time. Using this, I can find the parameter lambda over two weeks then find the probability that more than one powder day happens in a given period using some of the Poisson process.

If you travel for a 5 day trip, the script can plot the probability that you'll encounter a powder day in this 5 day trip. That is, it will produce these graphs:

Vail Michigan

This repo is of great practical resource for me personally... I plan to book a ski trip next year and want a powder day!