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---
title: "Alliances and Bargaining"
subtitle: POSC 1020 -- Introduction to International Relations
author: Steven V. Miller
institute: Department of Political Science
titlegraphic: /Dropbox/teaching/clemson-academic.png
date:
fontsize: 10pt
output:
beamer_presentation:
template: ~/Dropbox/miscelanea/svm-r-markdown-templates/svm-latex-beamer.tex
latex_engine: xelatex
dev: cairo_pdf
fig_caption: true
slide_level: 3
make149: true
mainfont: "Open Sans"
titlefont: "Titillium Web"
---
```{r setup, include=FALSE, cache=F, message=F, warning=F, results="hide"}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(cache=TRUE)
knitr::opts_chunk$set(fig.path='figs/')
knitr::opts_chunk$set(cache.path='cache/')
knitr::opts_chunk$set(
fig.process = function(x) {
x2 = sub('-\\d+([.][a-z]+)$', '\\1', x)
if (file.rename(x, x2)) x2 else x
}
)
```
```{r loadstuff, include=FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(cache=FALSE)
library(tidyverse)
library(lubridate)
library(stringr)
library(stevemisc)
library(scales)
Alliance_my <- read_csv("~/Dropbox/data/cow/alliance/4.1/alliance_v4.1_by_member_yearly.csv")
Alliance_m <- read_csv("~/Dropbox/data/cow/alliance/4.1/alliance_v4.1_by_member.csv")
Alliance_dy <- read_csv("~/Dropbox/data/cow/alliance/4.1/alliance_v4.1_by_dyad_yearly.csv")
Alliance_d <- read_csv("~/Dropbox/data/cow/alliance/4.1/alliance_v4.1_by_dyad.csv")
States <- read_csv("~/Dropbox/data/cow/states/states2016.csv")
States %>%
# mutate(endyear = ifelse(endyear == 2011, 2015, endyear)) %>%
rowwise() %>%
mutate(year = list(seq(styear, endyear))) %>%
ungroup() %>%
unnest() %>%
arrange(ccode, year) %>%
select(ccode, year) %>%
distinct(ccode, year) -> CYs
CYs %>%
group_by(year) %>%
summarize(numstates = n()) -> Numstates
```
# Introduction
### Puzzle(s) for Today
*Why do states fight other countries' wars?*
###
![A Chinese soldier displays knocked-out U.S. tank of 1st Cavalry Divison](china-korean-war.jpg)
# Alliances and Conflict
### Alliances
Alliances are commitments by states to cooperate on security policy.
- They form when states have compatible interests in military cooperation.
- Importantly, alliances can alter the bargaining dynamics in a bilateral dispute.
### Types of Alliances
- Bilateral or multilateral (e.g. NATO)
- Asymmetrical—a powerful state commits to defending a weaker state (for example, the United States and South Korea)
- Offensive (e.g. Molotov-Ribbentrop)
- Defensive (e.g. France-Russia, pre-WWI)
### A Correlates of War Typology
- Type I: Defense (i.e. A and B promise mutual defense)
- Type II(a): Neutrality (A and B promise to remain neutral if A/B is in conflict with C)
- Type II(b): Nonaggression (A and B acknowledge contentious issues, but pledge non-violence to each other)
- CoW acknowledges substantial overlap, but generally neutrality pacts are more specific.
- Type III: Entente (A and B pledge cooperation/consultation in a crisis)
###
```{r perc-system-with-alliance-1816-2012, eval=T, echo=F, fig.width=14, fig.height=8.5, warning=F, message=F}
Alliance_my %>%
group_by(year, ccode) %>%
filter(year > 0) %>%
summarize(sum = n()) %>%
mutate(sum = ifelse(sum > 1, 1, sum)) %>%
group_by(year) %>%
summarize(sum = n()) %>%
left_join(Numstates, .) %>%
mutate(perc = sum/numstates) %>%
ggplot(.,aes(year, perc)) +
theme_steve_web() +
geom_line(size=1.1) +
geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=0, ymax=perc),
alpha=0.3, fill="#619cff") +
scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(1820, 2010, by = 10)) +
scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent, limits=c(0,1)) +
xlab("Year") + ylab("Percentage of the State System Having At Least One Alliance") +
labs(title = "Roughly Three-Quarters of the State System Has At Least One Active Alliance",
subtitle = "The percentage of the state system membership with at least one alliance plummeted after World War I and spiked during World War II.",
caption = "Data: Correlates of War Alliances Data (v 4.1)")
```
###
```{r most-alliances-all-time-1816-2012, eval=T, echo=F, fig.width=14, fig.height=8.5, warning=F, message=F}
Alliance_m %>%
group_by(state_name) %>%
summarize(sum = n()) %>%
arrange(-sum) %>% head(12) %>%
mutate(state_name = ifelse(state_name == "United States of America", "United\nStates", state_name),
state_name = ifelse(state_name == "United Kingdom", "United\nKingdom", state_name),
state_name = ifelse(state_name == "Austria-Hungary", "Austria-\nHungary", state_name)) %>%
ggplot(.,aes(reorder(state_name, -sum), sum)) +
theme_steve_web() +
xlab("Country") + ylab("Number of Alliances") +
geom_bar(stat="identity", color="black", fill="#619cff", alpha=0.8) +
geom_text(aes(label=sum), vjust=-.5, colour="black",
position=position_dodge(.9), size=4, family = "Open Sans") +
labs(title = "No Country Has Signed More Alliances in the Post-Napoleon History of the World Than Russia",
subtitle = "Russia's 105 alliances equals the total of France and the United Kingdom combined.",
caption = "Data: Correlates of War Alliances Data (v. 4.1)")
```
###
```{r usa-rus-alliances-1816-2012, eval=T, echo=F, fig.width=14, fig.height=8.5, warning=F, message=F}
Alliance_my %>%
filter(ccode == 2 | ccode == 365) %>%
select(version4id, state_name, year) %>%
rename(Country = state_name) %>%
group_by(year, Country) %>%
summarize(sum = n()) %>%
ggplot(.,aes(year, sum, fill=Country, group=Country)) + theme_steve_web() +
scale_x_continuous(limits=c(1816, 2012), breaks = seq(1820, 2010, by = 10)) +
geom_bar(aes(fill=Country), stat="identity", color="black", alpha=I(0.5)) +
xlab("Year") + ylab("Number of Active Alliances in a Year") +
#scale_fill_manual(values = pal("five38")) +
labs(title = "The Number of Active Alliances for the U.S. and Russia, 1816-2012",
subtitle = "The U.S. foray into alliance-making starts with the Root–Takahira Agreement with Japan. They've been a common part of Russian foreign policy for much longer.",
caption = "Data: Correlates of War Alliances Data (v. 4.1)")
```
###
```{r alliance-type-1816-2012, eval=T, echo=F, fig.width=14, fig.height=8.5, warning=F, message=F}
Alliance_m %>%
group_by(version4id, ss_type) %>%
summarize(sum = n()) %>%
group_by(ss_type) %>%
summarize(sum = n()) %>%
mutate(Type = c("Defense", "Neutrality", "Non-Aggression", "Non-Aggression", "Entente")) %>%
group_by(Type) %>%
summarize(sum = sum(sum)) %>%
ggplot(.,aes(Type, sum)) + theme_steve_web() +
geom_bar(stat="identity", color="black", fill="#619cff", alpha=0.8) +
geom_text(aes(label=sum), vjust=-.5, colour="black",
position=position_dodge(.9), size=4, family = "Open Sans") +
xlab("Type of Alliance (via Singer and Small, 1966)") + ylab("Number of Alliances in the Data") +
labs(title = "Almost Half (49.5%) of Alliances Are Primarily Defensive",
subtitle = "An 1862-66 alliance among Hanover, Bavaria, Saxony, Wuerttemburg, Hesse Grand Ducal, and Austria-Hungary is the only primarily neutrality pact in the data.",
caption = "Data: Correlates of War Alliances Data (v 4.1)")
# version4id 42 = only Neutrality
```
###
```{r alliance-pledges-1816-2012, eval=T, echo=F, fig.width=14, fig.height=8.5, warning=F, message=F}
Alliance_d %>%
group_by(version4id) %>%
summarize(num_def = sum(defense),
num_neu = sum(neutrality),
num_nonagg = sum(nonaggression),
num_ent = sum(entente)) %>%
mutate(num_def = ifelse(num_def > 1, 1, num_def),
num_neu = ifelse(num_neu > 1, 1, num_neu),
num_nonagg = ifelse(num_nonagg > 1, 1, num_nonagg),
num_ent = ifelse(num_ent > 1, 1, num_ent)) %>%
summarize(`Defense` = sum(num_def),
`Neutrality` = sum(num_neu),
`Non-Aggression` = sum(num_nonagg),
`Entente` = sum(num_ent, na.rm=T)) %>%
gather(Category, Count, `Defense`:`Entente`) %>%
ggplot(.,aes(Category, Count)) + theme_steve_web() +
geom_bar(stat="identity", color="black", fill="#619cff", alpha=0.8) +
geom_text(aes(label=Count), vjust=-.5, colour="black",
position=position_dodge(.9), size=4, family = "Open Sans") +
xlab("Pledge Type (via Singer and Small, 1966)") + ylab("Number of Pledges in the Data") +
labs(title = "Few Alliances Are Primarily Ententes or Neutrality Pacts, but Those Pledges Appear in Defense and Non-Aggression Pacts",
subtitle = "Only one alliance was a neutrality pact but 102 alliances contain neutrality pledges.",
caption = "Data: Correlates of War Alliances Data (v 4.1)")
```
### The Cost of Alliances
Alliances are costly.
- Commitment of blood and treasure to defend another.
- Must be upheld to be credible, even if defeat is likely.
- Alliances limit freedom, as consultation with allies is necessary before taking action or making decisions.
- An emboldened ally may entrap protector in conflict.
### Why Form Alliances?
- Weak state may gain protection from powerful rivals.
- Strong state may signal its resolve to defend weak state.
- Combining resources may economize, allowing greater defense.
- Can temper conflicts (e.g. Greece and Turkey in NATO).
- Can formalize a sphere of influence (e.g. the Warsaw Pact).
### Additional Motives
Balancing results in roughly equal blocs.
- Small states seek to avoid domination by alliance leader.
- Alliance with strong state threatens state freedom.
Other explanations of alliance formation
- Bandwagoning: when states join aggressive/threatening side (for example, Italy in World War II)
- Affinity: shared culture, ideology, or religion.
## Alliances and Bargaining
<!-- ###
![The Alignment of Interests Between A-C and B](fig51.png) -->
###
```{r alignment-interests-ac-b, eval=T, echo=F, fig.height=8.5, fig.width=14, message=F, warning=F}
tibble(x = seq(-50, 50),
y = seq(-50, 50)) %>%
ggplot(.,aes(x,y)) + theme_steve_web() +
theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
axis.ticks.x=element_blank(),
axis.ticks.y=element_blank()) +
scale_x_continuous(labels = NULL) +
scale_y_continuous(labels = NULL, limits = c(-40, 40)) +
xlab("") + ylab("") +
annotate("rect", fill = "gray", alpha = 0.5,
xmin = -48, xmax = 48,
ymin = -15, ymax = 15) +
# bargaining range goes here -->
annotate("rect", fill = "violet", alpha = 0.5,
xmin = -30, xmax = 30,
ymin = -15, ymax = 15) +
annotate("text", x = 50,
y = 0, hjust=0.5, family="Open Sans",
label = "B", fontface="bold", color="blue2", size=5) +
annotate("text", x = -50,
y = 5, hjust=0.5, family="Open Sans",
label = "A", fontface="bold", color="red2", size=5) +
annotate("text", x = -50,
y = -5, hjust=0.5, family="Open Sans",
label = "C", fontface="bold", color="red2", size=5) +
annotate("text", x = -48,
y = 27.5, hjust=0, family="Open Sans",
label = "State B's Ideal Outcome",
fontface="bold", color="blue2", size=5) +
annotate("text", x = 48,
y = -30, hjust=1, family="Open Sans",
label = "State A and C's\nIdeal Outcome",
fontface="bold",color="red2", size=5) +
geom_segment(x=0, y=21, xend=0, yend=-21,
color="black", linetype="dotted") +
geom_segment(x = 48, y = -25, xend =48, yend = -18,
arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.1, "inches")),
color="red2") +
geom_segment(x = -48, y = 25, xend = -48, yend = 18,
arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.1, "inches")),
color="blue2") +
annotate("text", x=0, y=-26, hjust=0.5,
family="Open Sans", label = "Potential\nDeal\n(i.e. the Outcome of War)",
fontface="bold", size=5) +
annotate("text", x = -15, y=-18, hjust=0.5,
family="Open Sans", label = "<----- State A's Share ----->",
fontface="bold", color="red2", size=5) +
annotate("text", x = 15, y=18, hjust=0.5,
family="Open Sans", label = "<----- State B's Share ----->",
fontface="bold", color="blue2", size=5) +
geom_segment(x= -30, y=-15, xend=-30, yend=15,
color="black", linetype="solid") +
geom_segment(x= 30, y=-15, xend= 30, yend=15,
color="black", linetype="solid") +
annotate("text", x=-40, y= 0,
family="Open Sans", hjust="center",
color="red2", label="A rejects\nthese deals", fontface="bold") +
annotate("text", x=40, y= 0,
family="Open Sans", hjust="center",
color="blue2", label="B rejects\nthese deals", fontface="bold") +
labs(title = "The Alignment of Interests Among A-C and B",
subtitle = "C supports A, but C's participation in a potential war is an open question. Both A and B are perfectly matched (i.e. p(victory) = .5) and a hypothetical bargaining space still exists.")
```
###
```{r alignment-interests-ac-b-range, eval=T, echo=F, fig.height=8.5, fig.width=14, message=F, warning=F}
tibble(x = seq(-50, 50),
y = seq(-50, 50)) %>%
ggplot(.,aes(x,y)) + theme_steve_web() +
theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
axis.ticks.x=element_blank(),
axis.ticks.y=element_blank()) +
scale_x_continuous(labels = NULL) +
scale_y_continuous(labels = NULL, limits = c(-40, 40)) +
xlab("") + ylab("") +
annotate("rect", fill = "gray", alpha = 0.5,
xmin = -48, xmax = 48,
ymin = -15, ymax = 15) +
# bargaining range goes here -->
annotate("rect", fill = "violet", alpha = 0.5,
xmin = -10, xmax = 30,
ymin = -15, ymax = 15) +
annotate("text", x = 50,
y = 0, hjust=0.5, family="Open Sans",
label = "B", fontface="bold", color="blue2", size=5) +
annotate("text", x = -50,
y = 5, hjust=0.5, family="Open Sans",
label = "A", fontface="bold", color="red2", size=5) +
annotate("text", x = -50,
y = -5, hjust=0.5, family="Open Sans",
label = "C", fontface="bold", color="red2", size=5) +
annotate("text", x = -48,
y = 27.5, hjust=0, family="Open Sans",
label = "State B's Ideal Outcome",
fontface="bold", color="blue2", size=5) +
annotate("text", x = 48,
y = -30, hjust=1, family="Open Sans",
label = "State A and C's\nIdeal Outcome",
fontface="bold",color="red2", size=5) +
# previous 50/50 deal, hypothetical --->
geom_segment(x=0, y=21, xend=0, yend=-21,
color="black", linetype="dotted") +
# previous 50/50 deal, hypothetical --->
geom_segment(x=10, y=21, xend=10, yend=-21,
color="black", linetype="dotted") +
geom_segment(x= -10, y=-15, xend=-10, yend=15,
color="black", linetype="solid") +
geom_segment(x= 30, y=-15, xend= 30, yend=15,
color="black", linetype="solid") +
geom_segment(x= -30, y=-15, xend= -30, yend=15,
color="black", linetype="dashed") +
geom_segment(x = 48, y = -25, xend =48, yend = -18,
arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.1, "inches")),
color="red2") +
geom_segment(x = -48, y = 25, xend = -48, yend = 18,
arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.1, "inches")),
color="blue2") +
annotate("text", x=0, y=-26, hjust=0.5,
family="Open Sans", label = "War\nOutcome\n(Without C)",
fontface="bold", size=5) +
annotate("text", x=10, y=-26, hjust=0.5,
family="Open Sans", label = "War\nOutcome\n(With C)",
fontface="bold", size=5) +
annotate("text", x=-40, y= 0,
family="Open Sans", hjust="center",
color="red2", label="A always rejects\nthese deals", fontface="bold") +
annotate("text", x=40, y= 0,
family="Open Sans", hjust="center",
color="blue2", label="B rejects\nthese deals", fontface="bold") +
annotate("text", x=-20, y= 0,
family="Open Sans", hjust="center",
color="red2", label="A rejects\nthese deals\nwhen C is assured\nto join the war\n(i.e. A accepts these deals\nwithout C's help)", fontface="bold") +
geom_segment(x = 0.2, y = 0, xend =9.8, yend = 0,
arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.1, "inches")),
color="black") +
labs(title = "What C's Participation Does to the Bargaining Range",
subtitle = "C's participation decreases A's cost of war and decreases the bargaining range.")
```
<!-- ###
![Alignments, Alliances, and Interstate Bargaining ](fig52.png) -->
### How Alliances Establish Credibility
Alliance obligations are honored about 70% of the time. Reasons include:
- Hands-tying
- Abrogation costs
- Influencing decision-making calculus of opposing side in multiple ways
###
![Marriage of John I, King of Portugal and Philippa of Lancaster](marriage-crop.jpg)
### When Alliances Fail
- The tail wags the dog, raising costs of war for *C*.
- Abrogation costs are cheap.
## Analyzing European Alliance System (1879-1990)
###
![If we're talking alliances, we're talking Europe](WWI-Alliances.jpg)
### The Emergence of Germany
Germany emerged as a major power after 1870, collecting both friends and enemies.
- 1879: Dual Alliance with Austria-Hungary.
- A curious alliance, given Seven Weeks' War (1866)
- 1882: Expansion to include Italy, Austria's blood enemy.
- Italy's rationale: placate nearby states to focus on empire.
### The Counter-Coalition Against Germany
This prompted quite a counter-coalition, especially among former rivals.
- 1894: Franco-Russian Alliance
- 1904: Entente Cordiale (UK-France)
- 1907: Anglo-Russian Convention
### Leading to World War I
The alliance pattern contributed to the outbreak of World War I:
- Small conflicts escalated.
- Alliances created incentives for preventive war.
- Major powers became dependent on allies.
- The larger number of states increased chances of miscalculation.
### The Interwar Period
The interwar period posed similar problems.
- Major buck-passing, definitely among UK, France, and Russia/USSR.
- Hitler successfully defied French commitments to Czechoslovakia and Romania, among others.
### The Interwar Period
We can understand why the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact happened in this perspective.
- No country was more consistent in raising alarms about Hitler than the USSR.
- However, UK and France had folded on the Ruhr, Sudetenland, and other issues.
- Thus, the Soviets bailed to placate Germany and leave UK and France to dry.
WWII happened as a result of weak alliance commitments.
### The Cold War
Clear bifurcation of Europe into West and East.
- West: NATO countries
- East: Warsaw Pact
### The Cold War
A long, if very problematic, "peace" followed.
- U.S. tied its hands to Europe with troops in W. Germany/elsewhere.
- Both sunk costs into reorganizing entire economic systems in the sphere.
# Conclusion
### Conclusion
Alliances are institutions that can prevent or facilitate war.
- Peaceful: influence bargaining by *B*, settle issues among signatories.
- Dangerous: tail-wags-the-dog, cheap commitments with small abrogation costs.
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