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COVID-19 Expert Surveys

Starting in late February 2020, we have been conducting weekly surveys that asked a group of infectious disease modeling researchers to assess their collective expert opinion on the trajectory of the COVID-19 outbreak in the US.

An expert was defined as a researcher who has spent a substantial amount of time in their professional career designing, building, and/or interpreting models to explain and understand infectious disease dynamics and/or the associated policy implications in human populations.

We are working on a comprehensive write-up with methods and further analysis of individual-level responses.

A Word document showing the questions asked is available here. A dataset with the "consensus distributions" combined across all experts for select questions is available here.

id dates conducted summary press
Survey 1 Feb 18-20, 2020 - -
Survey 2 Feb 24-25 - -
Survey 3 Mar 02-03 Survey3 -
Survey 4 Mar 09-10 Survey4 -
Survey 5 Mar 16-17 Survey5 FiveThirtyEight & Rolling Stone
Survey 6 Mar 23-24 Survey6 FiveThirtyEight
Survey 7 Mar 30-31 Survey7 FiveThirtyEight & The Economist
Survey 8 Apr 06-07 Survey8 FiveThirtyEight & Vox
Survey 9 Apr 13-14 Survey9 FiveThirtyEight
Survey 10 Apr 20-21 Survey10 Science News
Survey 11 Apr 27-28 Survey11 FiveThirtyEight
Survey 12 May 4-5 Survey12 FiveThirtyEight
Survey 13 May 11-12 Survey13


An expert judgment model to predict early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States


tom mcandrew ( and Nicholas G. Reich ( Lehigh University College of Health Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts - Amherst


A repository of the data and code used for aggregating expert predictions of COVID19







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