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Economics études

In a recent article Blanchard (2014) recognizes some of the shortcomings of this kind of approach, its assumption of linearity and oblivion of the financial system. He concludes his article by saying that DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models can still be useful if we stay away from what he calls the dark corners - where the economy can malfunction badly - and leaves an insightful policy advice...” stay away from dark corners”! (Blanchard 2014, p. 4) Reading this, one comes to mind a famous quote from Keynes, that slightly modified seems quite appropriate: Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in the dark corners they can only tell us that if we stay away from those dark corners everything will be fine. - Pedro Oliveira Pratas e Sousa

The shocking thing with Ergodicity Economics is that an Ergodicity Economics null model is often more powerful than a highly complex mainstream economics model. That’s why we’ve been working with null models: they’re so much more powerful than has been appreciated that it’s really silly, at this point, to do anything else. Of course such models can’t tell us why the fast-food restaurants in the suburbs of Boston had a bad October this year. So they’re limited in what they can say, but they’re extremely powerful in getting the big picture right. For instance, Re-allocating Geometric Brownian Motion produces a realistic power-law tail for the wealth distribution. There are hundreds of papers out there struggling to explain the Pareto tail with detailed models and many parameters. - Ole Peters on Ergodicity Economics

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  • Sornette
  • Bouchaud
  • Vineer Bhansali
  • Emanuel Derman
  • Harel Jacobson
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Ray Dalio
  • Steve Keen
  • Perry Mehrling
  • Robert Shiller
  • Jim Simons

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