timelines-takeoff-ai-2027/timelines/simple_params.yaml at main · uvafan/timelines-takeoff-ai-2027 · GitHub

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simulation:
  n_sims: 5000     # Number of Monte Carlo simulation runs
  n_steps: 30000   # Maximum simulation steps before timeout
  dt: 1.0          # Time step size in days
  current_horizon: 15  # Current time horizon in minutes (point estimate)
  compute_decrease_date: 2029.0  # End of 2028
  human_alg_progress_decrease_date: 2029.0  # End of 2028
  max_simulation_years: 20.0  # Maximum number of years to simulate before timeout

# Plotting style configuration
plotting_style:
  font:
    family: "monospace"   # Add this line to specify monospace font
    sizes:
      axis_labels: 18
      title: 18
      main_title: 32
      ticks: 16
      legend: 16

  colors:
    background: "#FFFEF8"  # Add this line for cream background (255, 250, 240)
    human:
      dark: "#484848"
    default: "#000000"

# Forecaster configurations
forecasters:
  eli:
    name: "Eli (AI 2027 author)"
    color: "#900000"
    distributions:
      h_SC_ci: [1, 14400]  # Months needed for SC
      T_t_ci: [2.5, 9]        # Horizon doubling time in months
      cost_speed_ci: [0.5, 30]  # Cost and speed adjustment in months
      announcement_delay_ci: [0.25, 6]  # Announcement delay in months (1 week to 6 months)
      present_prog_multiplier_ci: [0.03, 0.3]  # Progress multiplier at present - 1
      SC_prog_multiplier_ci: [1.5, 40.0]  # Progress multiplier at SC - 1
      p_superexponential: 0.45  # Probability of superexponential growth
      p_subexponential: 0.10    # Probability of subexponential growth
      se_speedup_ci: [0.05, 0.5]    # UNUSED; 80% CI for superexponential speedup (added to 1)
      sub_slowdown_ci: [0.01, 0.2]  # UNUSED; 80% CI for subexponential slowdown (subtracted from 1)
      se_doubling_decay_fraction: 0.1     # If superexponential, fraction by which each doubling gets easier
      sub_doubling_growth_fraction: 0.1   # If subexponential, fraction by which each doubling gets harder
  eli_patched_rd_speedup:
    name: "Eli_patched_rd_speedup"
    color: "#900000"
    patch_rd_speedup: True
    distributions:
      h_SC_ci: [1, 14400]  # Months needed for SC
      T_t_ci: [2.5, 9]        # Horizon doubling time in months
      cost_speed_ci: [0.5, 30]  # Cost and speed adjustment in months
      announcement_delay_ci: [0.25, 6]  # Announcement delay in months (1 week to 6 months)
      present_prog_multiplier_ci: [0.03, 0.3]  # Progress multiplier at present - 1
      SC_prog_multiplier_ci: [1.5, 40.0]  # Progress multiplier at SC - 1
      p_superexponential: 0.45  # Probability of superexponential growth
      p_subexponential: 0.10    # Probability of subexponential growth
      se_speedup_ci: [0.05, 0.5]    # UNUSED; 80% CI for superexponential speedup (added to 1)
      sub_slowdown_ci: [0.01, 0.2]  # UNUSED; 80% CI for subexponential slowdown (subtracted from 1)
      se_doubling_decay_fraction: 0.1     # If superexponential, fraction by which each doubling gets easier
      sub_doubling_growth_fraction: 0.1   # If subexponential, fraction by which each doubling gets harder
  # nikola:
  #   name: "Nikola"
  #   color: "#003000"
  #   distributions:
  #     h_SC_ci: [0.1, 24]  # Months needed for SC
  #     T_t_ci: [2.5, 9]        # Horizon doubling time in months
  #     cost_speed_ci: [0.5, 30]  # Cost and speed adjustment in months
  #     announcement_delay_ci: [0.25, 6]  # Announcement delay in months (1 week to 6 months)
  #     present_prog_multiplier_ci: [0.03, 0.3]  # Progress multiplier at present - 1
  #     SC_prog_multiplier_ci: [1.0, 20.0]  # Progress multiplier at SC - 1
  #     p_superexponential: 0.4  # Probability of superexponential growth
  #     p_subexponential: 0.10    # Probability of subexponential growth
  #     se_speedup_ci: [0.05, 0.5]    # UNUSED; 80% CI for superexponential speedup (added to 1)
  #     sub_slowdown_ci: [0.01, 0.2]  # UNUSED; 80% CI for subexponential slowdown (subtracted from 1)
  #     se_doubling_decay_fraction: 0.1     # If superexponential, fraction by which each doubling gets easier
  #     sub_doubling_growth_fraction: 0.1   # If subexponential, fraction by which each doubling gets harder