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Add to the stats dialog number of hits stats (actual/expected) #4066

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jostephd opened this issue May 9, 2019 · 5 comments

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@jostephd
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commented May 9, 2019

See https://forums.wesnoth.org/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=49785. I'm considering adding one line to the stats dialog, showing total number of hits / expected number of hits. After 1 hit at 60%, 3 hits at 70%, and 1 miss at 70%, the total number of hits is 4 (= 1+3) and the expected number of hits is 3.4 (= 1*0.6 + 4*0.7), so the line would say "4 / 3.4".

The thread discusses also showing the confidence interval, or standard deviation, or the a priori probability of the actual result, but I'm not sure I'll be adding any of these in the first revision.

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commented May 9, 2019

Here's what it looks like:

Screenshot_2019-05-09_16-15-07

In this case, I had a Mage and a Thunderer attack a unit that had 40% terrain defense. The expected number of hits in this case is 3*0.7 + 1*0.6 = 2.7. The actual number of hits was 2 (that's what the RNG decided in this playthrough). 39.2% is the probability of getting 2 hits or fewer in these two attacks:

>>> mage = 0.7
>>> dwarf = 0.6
>>> (1-mage) * (1-mage) * (1-mage) * (1-dwarf)  +  (1-mage) * (1-mage) * (1-mage) * dwarf + 3 * mage * (1-mage) * (1-mage) * (1-dwarf)  +  3 * mage * mage * (1-mage) * (1-dwarf) + 3 * mage * (1-mage) * (1-mage) * dwarf
0.3924

Any comments?

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commented May 10, 2019

Would there be some way to indicate to the user that the two sets of Inflicted/Taken rows count things different ways? Unless I'm mis-remembering, the top Inflicted is how much damage should have been inflicted just by the current player, whereas the bottom Inflicted will count the number of hits across all players' units.

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commented May 10, 2019

The bottom Inflicted should show only the current player's hits. See https://github.com/wesnoth/wesnoth/pull/4070/files?file-filters%5B%5D=.cpp#diff-56105e5f707d8c63e0f6cf0582a7e22fR537 and below.

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commented May 10, 2019

Ah, I misread - I thought it said that the mage and thunderer attacked each other.

Otherwise, I'd say to use some other separator than /. I can imagine there being a fair number of people confused about how 2 divided by 2.7 somehow ends up at 39%. Maybe display it as 2 (2.7) instead? 17/25.2 is at least fairly straight forward as to how they are related to the -32%.

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commented May 10, 2019

Good point, made a note on the PR so I don't forget it

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