-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 1
/
10Egypt retrospective forecast.py
63 lines (53 loc) · 2.27 KB
/
10Egypt retrospective forecast.py
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from scipy import integrate, optimize
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import matplotlib.dates as mdates
import numpy as np
import datetime as dt
from datetime import datetime
plt.rcParams['font.family'] = ['Microsoft JhengHei']
plt.rcParams.update({'font.size': 16})
def SEIR_model(Y,t,beta,q,a,sigma,epsilon,gamma):
S,E,I,R = Y
dS = - beta * S * (1-a) * I / N - beta * S * (1-a) * q * E / N - beta * a * S * (1-sigma) * I / N - beta * a * S * (1-sigma) * q * E / N - sigma * a * S
dE = beta * S * (1-a) * I / N + beta * S * (1-a) * q * E / N + beta * a * S * (1-sigma) * I / N + beta * a * S * (1-sigma) * q * E / N - epsilon * E
dI = epsilon * E - gamma * I
dR = sigma * a * S + gamma * I
return dS,dE,dI,dR
def fit_odeint(x,beta,q,a,sigma,epsilon,gamma):
return integrate.odeint(SEIR_model, N0, x, args=(beta,q,a,sigma,epsilon,gamma))[:,2]
co=pd.read_csv('./10Egypt.csv',encoding='gbk',header=0)
for index, row in co.iterrows():
nation=row['Country/Region']
row=row.drop(['Province_State','Admin2','Country/Region','UID','FIPS','iso2','iso3','code3'])
xlist=[]
ylist=[]
for index,val in row.items():
if val>=0:
date = datetime.strptime(index,'%Y年%m月%d日')
xlist.append(date)
ylist.append(val)
population = 102334403
N=population
x=np.array(xlist)
y=np.array(ylist)
if len(y)==0:
continue
T = np.arange(len(y))
I0 = y[0]
E0 = I0/3
R0 =111451
N0 = population - E0 - I0 - R0, E0, I0, R0
popt, pcov = optimize.curve_fit(fit_odeint, T[1:(len(y)-30)], y[1:(len(y)-30)], bounds=([0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.06],[0.9,0.8,1,1,0.3,0.25]),maxfev=20000000)
fitted = fit_odeint(np.array(list(range(1,len(y)+1))), *popt)
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.MonthLocator())
ax.xaxis.set_minor_locator(mdates.DayLocator(bymonthday=(1, 15)))
ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%Y %b %d'))
plt.title('Infections/day in ' + nation)
plt.plot(x, y, 'r-', label='Real infections', linewidth=1)
plt.plot(x, fitted[:len(y)], 'y-', label='Fitting', linewidth=3)
plt.plot(x[(len(y) - 30):len(y)], fitted[(len(y) - 30):len(y)], 'b-', label='Prediction', linewidth=3)
plt.legend()
plt.savefig(nation + '.svg')