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Discrete wavelet decomposition is an extremely fast an accurate algorithm to filter a periodic
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signal into complementary and exclusive frequency sub-bands (fig.~\ref{fig:dwd}).
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XXX et al.(cite) \citationneeded{} obtained very promising results by computing a large number of features on the raw \gls{eeg} signal
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and a limited subset of features (\ie{} mean power and absolute values) in some wavelet coefficients.
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\c{S}en et al.\cite{sen_comparative_2014} obtained very promising results by
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computing a large number of features on the raw \gls{eeg} signal and a limited subset of features (\ie{} mean power and absolute values) in some wavelet coefficients.
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In contrast, in the present study, all features were computed on all frequency sub-bands.
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Interestingly, some of the features that are the most important for prediction would not have
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been discovered otherwise (see table~\ref{tab:importances}).
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Many authors have modelled time series of epochs as if each epoch was statistically independent from each other.
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This assumption makes it straightforward to use classical machine learning techniques such as
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\glspl{svm}(\citationneeded{}), \glspl{ann}(\citationneeded{}), random forests(\citationneeded{}) and others.
random forests\cite{breiman_random_2001} and others.
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They have the advantage coping very well with non-linearity, can handle a large number of predictors and have many optimised implementations.
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However, working with this assumption generally does not allow to account for temporal consistency of vigilance states.
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Indeed, prior knowledge of, for instance, the state transition probabilities cannot be modelled.
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Manual scorers use contextual information to make decisions.
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For example, if a given epoch has ambiguous features between \gls{rem} and awake,
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it is likely to be classified as awake given surrounding epochs are, less ambiguously, awake.
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For this reason, explicit temporal modelling, using, for instance, Hidden Markov Models has been investigated\citationneeded{}.
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For this reason, explicit temporal modelling, using, for instance, Hidden Markov Models has been investigated\cite{doroshenkov_classification_2007,pan_transition-constrained_2012}.
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In order to benefit from the classical machine learning
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framework whist including temporal information,
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it is possible to create, new variables, accounting for the temporal variation\citationneeded{}.
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it is possible to create, new variables, accounting for the temporal
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variation\cite{dietterich_machine_2002}.
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This study demonstrated that addition of temporal context significantly improved predictive accuracy (fig.\ref{fig:temporal_integration}).
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The convolution approach (eq.\ref{eq:window}) appeared to provide better results.
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Instead of averaging feature after calculation, it may be advantageous to compute features over epochs of different length in a first place.
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Thus, the accuracy of local of non additive features, such as median, will be improved. In addition to local mean of feature, other variables, such as local
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slope and local variance of each feature may improve classification \citationneeded{(Deng 2013).}
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slope and local variance of each feature may improve
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classification\cite{deng_time_2013}.
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Although addition of time-dependent variables improved accuracy over a time-unaware model, their use can be seen as controversial.
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Indeed, including prior information about sleep structure will cause problems if the aim is to find differences in sleep structure.
the features (and labels) at a given time are very correlated with surrounding features.
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Therefore, if random sampling of even 50\% of all epochs, from all time series, was performed,
@@ -111,7 +120,8 @@ \subsection{Rigorous and comprehensive model evaluation}
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There are several way to reduce overfitting including limiting the maximal number of splits when growing classification trees, or pruning trees.
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However, it never possible to unsure a model will not overfit \emph{a priori}.
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Thus it remain necessary to assess the model fairly.
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In this study, systematic stratified cross-validation was performed.
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In this study, systematic stratified cross-validation was
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performed \cite{ding_querying_2008}.
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As a result, all predictions made on any 24h time series are generated by models
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that did not use any point originating from this same time series. This precaution simulate the the behaviour of the predictor with new recordings.
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Cross-validation was not only used to generate overall value of accuracy, but also, to further assess differences in sleep patterns (fig. \ref{fig:struct_assess}).
@@ -127,7 +137,9 @@ \subsection{Quality of the raw data}
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The ground truth labels used in this study has been generated by a two pass semi-automatic method.
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In a first place, an automatic annotation is performed based on a human-defined variable threshold.
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Then, the expert visually inspect the result and correct ambiguities.
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The first pass was originally designed to combine, through logical rules, four epochs of five seconds to produce 20s epochs\citationneeded{}.
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The first pass was originally designed to combine, through logical rules, four
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epochs of five seconds to produce 20s
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epochs\cite{costa-miserachs_automated_2003}.
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However, it was simplified in-house in order to produce
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only five second epochs, ignoring the last step, and has since not been reassessed against manual scoring.
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It is expected that this simplification increased divergence with manual scorers.
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\subsection{Overall results}
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The predictions of the classifier presented in this research agreed with ground truth for 92\% of epochs (table~\ref{tab:confus}).
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Although the limitation of the ground truth annotation make it is hard to put this result into perspective,
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this score is very promising.
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Although the limitation of the ground truth annotation makes it is difficult to
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put this result into perspective, this score is very promising.
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In addition, prediction did not result in significant difference in prevalences.
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However, there were, on average, much less \gls{rem} episodes in the predicted time series.
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The duration of \gls{rem} episodes was also over-estimated by prediction (though this is only marginally significant).
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