Wenzel et al. (2016) use multiple ensemble diagnostic regression (MDER) to constrain the CMIP5 future projection of the summer austral jet position with several historical process-oriented diagnostics and respective observations.
The following plots are reproduced:
- Absolute correlation between the target variable and the diagnostics.
- Scatterplot between the target variable and the MDER-calculated linear combination of diagnostics.
- Boxplot of RMSE for the unweighted multi-model mean and the (MDER) weighted multi-model mean of the target variable in a pseudo-reality setup.
- Time series of the target variable for all models, observations and MDER predictions.
- Errorbar plots for all diagnostics.
- Scatterplots between the target variable and all diagnostics.
Recipes are stored in recipes/
- recipe_wenzel16jclim.yml
Diagnostics are stored in diag_scripts/
- austral_jet/asr.ncl
- austral_jet/main.ncl
- mder/absolute_correlation.ncl
- mder/regression_stepwise.ncl
- mder/select_for_mder.ncl
- Preprocessor
extract_region
: Region extraction.extract_levels
: Pressure level extraction.area_statistics
: Spatial average calculations.
- Script austral_jet/asr.ncl
season
, str: Season.average_ens
, bool, optional (default:False
): Average over all given ensemble members of a climate model.wdiag
, array of str, optional: Names of the diagnostic for MDER output. Necessary when MDER output is desired.wdiag_title
, array of str, optional: Names of the diagnostic in plots.
- Script austral_jet/main.ncl
styleset
, str: Style set used for plotting the multi-model plots.season
, str: Season.average_ens
, bool, optional (default:False
): Average over all given ensemble members of a climate model.rsondes
, array of str, optional: Additional observations used in the plot but not for MDER output.rsondes_file
, array of str, optional: Paths to the additional observations Necessary whenrsondes
is given.rsondes_yr_min
, int, optional: Minimum year for additional observations. Necessary whenrsondes
is given.rsondes_yr_max
, int, optional: Maximum year for additional observations. Necessary whenrsondes
is given.wdiag
, array of str, optional: Names of the diagnostic for MDER output. Necessary when MDER output is desired.wdiag_title
, array of str, optional: Names of the diagnostic in plots.derive_var
, str, optional: Derive variables using NCL functions. Must be one of"tpp"
,"mmstf"
.derive_latrange
, array of float, optional: Latitude range for variable derivation. Necessary ifderive_var
is given.derive_lev
, float, optional: Pressure level (given in Pa) for variable derivation. Necessary ifderive_var
is given.
- Script mder/absolute_correlation.ncl
p_time
, array of int: Start years for future projections.p_step
, int: Time range for future projections (in years).scal_time
, array of int: Time range for base period (in years) for anomaly calculations used whencalc_type = "trend"
.time_oper
, str: Operation used in NCLtime_operation
function.time_opt
, str: Option used in NCLtime_operation
function.calc_type
, str: Calculation type for the target variable. Must be one of"trend"
,"pos"
,"int"
.domain
, str: Domain tag for provenance tracking.average_ens
, bool, optional (default:False
): Average over all given ensemble members of a climate model.region
, str, optional: Region used for area aggregation. Necessary if input of target variable is multidimensional.area_oper
, str, optional: Operation used in NCLarea_operation
function. Necessary if multidimensional is given.plot_units
, str, optional (attribute forvariable_info
): Units for the target variable used in the plots.
- Script mder/regression_stepwise.ncl
p_time
, array of int: Start years for future projections.p_step
, int: Time range for future projections (in years).scal_time
, array of int: Time range for base period (in years) for anomaly calculations used whencalc_type = "trend"
.time_oper
, str: Operation used in NCLtime_operation
function.time_opt
, str: Option used in NCLtime_operation
function.calc_type
, str: Calculation type for the target variable. Must be one of"trend"
,"pos"
,"int"
.domain
, str: Domain tag for provenance tracking.average_ens
, bool, optional (default:False
): Average over all given ensemble members of a climate model.smooth
, bool, optional (default:False
): Smooth time period with 1-2-1 filter.iter
, int, optional: Number of iterations for smoothing. Necessary whensmooth
is given.cross_validation_mode
, bool, optional (default:False
): Perform cross-validation.region
, str, optional: Region used for area aggregation. Necessary if input of target variable is multidimensional.area_oper
, str, optional: Operation used in NCLarea_operation
function. Necessary if multidimensional is given.plot_units
, str, optional (attribute forvariable_info
): Units for the target variable used in the plots.
- Script mder/select_for_mder.ncl
wdiag
, array of str: Names of the diagnostic for MDER output. Necessary when MDER output is desired.domain
, str: Domain tag for provenance tracking.ref_dataset
, str: Style set used for plotting the multi-model plots.average_ens
, bool, optional (default:False
): Average over all given ensemble members of a climate model.derive_var
, str, optional: Derive variables using NCL functions. Must be one of"tpp"
,"mmstf"
.
- ta (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, pressure level, time)
- uajet (atmos, monthly, time)
- va (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, pressure level, time)
- ps (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, time)
- asr (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, time)
- ERA-Intermin (ta, uajet, va, ps)
- CERES-EBAF (asr)
- Wenzel, S., V. Eyring, E.P. Gerber, and A.Y. Karpechko: Constraining Future Summer Austral Jet Stream Positions in the CMIP5 Ensemble by Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Regression. J. Climate, 29, 673–687, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0412.1, 2016.
Time series of the the target variable (future austral jet position in the RCP 4.5 scenario) for the CMIP5 ensemble, observations, unweighted multi-model mean projections and (MDER) weighted multi-model mean projections.
Scatterplot of the target variable (future austral jet position in the RCP 4.5 scenario) vs. the MDER-determined linear combination of diagnostics for the CMIP5 ensemble.
Boxplot for the RMSE of the target variable for the unweighted and (MDER) weighted multi-model mean projections in a pseudo-reality setup.
Trends in tropical DJF temperature at 250hPa for different CMIP5 models and observations.
Scatterplot of the target variable (future austral jet position in the RCP 4.5 scenario) vs. a single diagnostic, the historical location of the Southern hemisphere Hadley cell boundary for the CMIP5 ensemble.