example1_varexo_det.mod

// Test for varexo_det and forecast command at order 1

var y, c, k, a, h, b;
varexo e,u;
varexo_det ahat, bhat;

parameters beta, rho, alpha, delta, theta, psi, tau;

alpha = 0.36;
rho   = 0.95;
tau   = 0.025;
beta  = 0.99;
delta = 0.025;
psi   = 0;
theta = 2.95;

phi   = 0.1;

model;
c*theta*h^(1+psi)=(1-alpha)*y;
k = beta*(((exp(b)*c)/(exp(b(+1))*c(+1)))
    *(exp(b(+1))*alpha*y(+1)+(1-delta)*k));
y = exp(a)*(k(-1)^alpha)*(h^(1-alpha));
k = exp(b)*(y-c)+(1-delta)*k(-1);
a = ahat+ rho*a(-1)+tau*b(-1) + e;
b = bhat+ tau*a(-1)+rho*b(-1) + u;
end;

initval;
y = 1.08068253095672;
c = 0.80359242014163;
h = 0.29175631001732;
k = 5;
a = 0;
b = 0;
e = 0;
u = 0;
ahat = 0;
bhat = 0;
end;

shocks;
var e; stderr 0.009;
var u; stderr 0.009;
var e, u = phi*0.009*0.009;
var ahat;
periods 1;
values 0.1;
var bhat;
periods 2;
values 0.2;
end;

stoch_simul(order=1,irf=0,noprint);

forecast(periods=20);