Drought hazard: better indicator and projections

[matamadio]

The drought frequency analysis is currently based on FAO Agricultural Stress Index. It is based on satellite observations of crop health since 1984, meaning there is no probabilistic modelling, just empirical data.

The current representation of drought hazard:

• Combines cropland and pasture land
• Shows 2 separate seasons
• Measure hazard as frequency of impact over two threshold values of affected land: one third (30%) and half (50%).

Example:

This is aligned with the approach used by FAO website.
However, it is not the most intuitive metric to explain; either we simplify how it is expressed, or elaborate it into a new, easier to understand index.

@stufraser1 always interested in your suggestions if you have any