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Divided by zero in the Sobol's confidence level calculation #619

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LiBingtao opened this issue May 14, 2024 · 9 comments
Open

Divided by zero in the Sobol's confidence level calculation #619

LiBingtao opened this issue May 14, 2024 · 9 comments
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@LiBingtao
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Hi SALib team,

I have run the sobol analyze and get extremely large confidence interval like this:
image
This is the an MWE:

from SALib.analyze import sobol
import numpy as np

problem = {"num_vars": 105, "names": ["660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-1", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-2", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-3", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-4", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-5", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-6", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-7", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-8", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-9", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-10", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-11", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-12", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-13", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-14", "660ba74faf54943b0b65da2b-property-15", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-1", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-2", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-3", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-4", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-5", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-6", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-7", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-8", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-9", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-10", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-11", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-12", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-13", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-14", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d968-property-15", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-1", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-2", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-3", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-4", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-5", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-6", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-7", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-8", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-9", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-11", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-12", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-13", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-14", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d8a5-property-15", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d7e2-property-2", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d7e2-property-4", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d7e2-property-5", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d7e2-property-7", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d7e2-property-9", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d7e2-property-11", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d7e2-property-14", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d7e2-property-15", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d71f-property-2", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d71f-property-4", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d71f-property-5", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d71f-property-9", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d71f-property-11", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d71f-property-15", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-1", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-2", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-3", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-4", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-5", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-6", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-7", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-9", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-10", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-11", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-12", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-13", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-14", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d65c-property-15", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-1", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-2", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-3", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-4", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-5", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-6", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-7", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-8", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-9", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-10", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-11", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-12", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-13", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-14", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d599-property-15", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d4d6-property-2", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d4d6-property-3", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d4d6-property-4", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d4d6-property-5", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d4d6-property-6", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d4d6-property-7", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d4d6-property-9", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d4d6-property-10", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d4d6-property-11", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d4d6-property-14", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d4d6-property-15", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d413-property-2", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d413-property-3", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d413-property-4", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d413-property-5", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d413-property-9", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d413-property-10", "660ba74faf54943b0b65d413-property-11"], "bounds": [[0.9, 1.0, 0.95, 0.016666666666666663], [1.5, 2.5, 2.0, 0.16666666666666666], [24000.0, 36000.0, 30000.0, 2000.0], [0.12, 0.18, 0.15, 0.01], [0.45, 0.55, 0.5, 0.016666666666666673], [15.0, 285.0, 150.0, 45.0], [40.0, 60.0, 50.0, 3.3333333333333335], [711.0, 869.0, 790.0, 26.333333333333332], [4.5, 5.5, 5.0, 0.16666666666666666], [1.8, 2.2, 2.0, 0.0666666666666667], [1.6, 2.4, 2.0, 0.1333333333333333], [0.65, 0.8, 0.7250000000000001, 0.025000000000000005], [0.3, 0.36, 0.32999999999999996, 0.01], [900.0, 1100.0, 1000.0, 33.333333333333336], [7.5, 22.5, 15.0, 2.5], [0.9, 1.0, 0.95, 0.016666666666666663], [0.75, 1.5, 1.125, 0.125], [24000.0, 36000.0, 30000.0, 2000.0], [0.16, 0.24, 0.2, 0.01333333333333333], [0.45, 0.55, 0.5, 0.016666666666666673], [15.0, 285.0, 150.0, 45.0], [40.0, 60.0, 50.0, 3.3333333333333335], [473.0, 578.0, 525.5, 17.5], [4.5, 5.5, 5.0, 0.16666666666666666], [0.9, 1.1, 1.0, 0.03333333333333335], [1.6, 2.4, 2.0, 0.1333333333333333], [0.65, 0.8, 0.7250000000000001, 0.025000000000000005], [0.18, 0.22, 0.2, 0.006666666666666668], [900.0, 1100.0, 1000.0, 33.333333333333336], [25.0, 30.0, 27.5, 0.8333333333333334], [0.9, 1.0, 0.95, 0.016666666666666663], [1.3, 3.0, 2.15, 0.2833333333333333], [24000.0, 36000.0, 30000.0, 2000.0], [0.16, 0.24, 0.2, 0.01333333333333333], [0.45, 0.55, 0.5, 0.016666666666666673], [15.0, 285.0, 150.0, 45.0], [40.0, 60.0, 50.0, 3.3333333333333335], [449.0, 549.0, 499.0, 16.666666666666668], [4.5, 5.5, 5.0, 0.16666666666666666], [1.6, 2.4, 2.0, 0.1333333333333333], [0.65, 0.8, 0.7250000000000001, 0.025000000000000005], [0.18, 0.22, 0.2, 0.006666666666666668], [900.0, 1100.0, 1000.0, 33.333333333333336], [25.0, 30.0, 27.5, 0.8333333333333334], [0.5, 2.0, 1.25, 0.25], [0.1, 0.25, 0.175, 0.024999999999999998], [0.45, 0.55, 0.5, 0.016666666666666673], [40.0, 60.0, 50.0, 3.3333333333333335], [4.5, 5.5, 5.0, 0.16666666666666666], [1.6, 2.4, 2.0, 0.1333333333333333], [900.0, 1100.0, 1000.0, 33.333333333333336], [15.0, 18.0, 16.5, 0.5], [0.5, 2.0, 1.25, 0.25], [0.1, 0.2, 0.15000000000000002, 0.016666666666666666], [0.45, 0.55, 0.5, 0.016666666666666673], [1.5, 4.5, 3.0, 0.5], [0.8, 1.2, 1.0, 0.06666666666666665], [7.5, 22.5, 15.0, 2.5], [0.5, 1.0, 0.75, 0.08333333333333333], [1.5, 2.5, 2.0, 0.16666666666666666], [15000.0, 45000.0, 30000.0, 5000.0], [0.16, 0.24, 0.2, 0.01333333333333333], [0.45, 0.55, 0.5, 0.016666666666666673], [15.0, 285.0, 150.0, 45.0], [40.0, 60.0, 50.0, 3.3333333333333335], [1.5, 4.5, 3.0, 0.5], [2.7, 3.3, 3.0, 0.09999999999999994], [0.8, 1.2, 1.0, 0.06666666666666665], [0.39, 1.17, 0.78, 0.12999999999999998], [0.3, 0.36, 0.32999999999999996, 0.01], [900.0, 1100.0, 1000.0, 33.333333333333336], [7.5, 22.5, 15.0, 2.5], [0.5, 1.0, 0.75, 0.08333333333333333], [0.8, 1.4, 1.1, 0.09999999999999998], [15000.0, 45000.0, 30000.0, 5000.0], [0.16, 0.24, 0.2, 0.01333333333333333], [0.45, 0.55, 0.5, 0.016666666666666673], [15.0, 285.0, 150.0, 45.0], [40.0, 60.0, 50.0, 3.3333333333333335], [1733.0, 2118.0, 1925.5, 64.16666666666667], [1.5, 4.5, 3.0, 0.5], [2.7, 3.3, 3.0, 0.09999999999999994], [0.8, 1.2, 1.0, 0.06666666666666665], [0.39, 1.17, 0.78, 0.12999999999999998], [0.3, 0.36, 0.32999999999999996, 0.01], [900.0, 1100.0, 1000.0, 33.333333333333336], [7.5, 22.5, 15.0, 2.5], [0.5, 1.0, 0.75, 0.08333333333333333], [15000.0, 45000.0, 30000.0, 5000.0], [0.1, 0.2, 0.15000000000000002, 0.016666666666666666], [0.45, 0.55, 0.5, 0.016666666666666673], [15.0, 285.0, 150.0, 45.0], [40.0, 60.0, 50.0, 3.3333333333333335], [1.5, 4.5, 3.0, 0.5], [6.3, 7.7, 7.0, 0.2333333333333334], [0.8, 1.2, 1.0, 0.06666666666666665], [900.0, 1100.0, 1000.0, 33.333333333333336], [15.0, 30.0, 22.5, 2.5], [0.5, 2.0, 1.25, 0.25], [15000.0, 45000.0, 30000.0, 5000.0], [0.1, 0.15, 0.125, 0.008333333333333331], [0.45, 0.55, 0.5, 0.016666666666666673], [4.5, 5.5, 5.0, 0.16666666666666666], [0.9, 1.1, 1.0, 0.03333333333333335], [0.8, 1.2, 1.0, 0.06666666666666665]], "dists": ["truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm", "truncnorm"], "groups": ["property-1", "property-2", "property-3", "property-4", "property-5", "property-6", "property-7", "property-8", "property-9", "property-10", "property-11", "property-12", "property-13", "property-14", "property-15", "property-1", "property-2", "property-3", "property-4", "property-5", "property-6", "property-7", "property-8", "property-9", "property-10", "property-11", "property-12", "property-13", "property-14", "property-15", "property-1", "property-2", "property-3", "property-4", "property-5", "property-6", "property-7", "property-8", "property-9", "property-11", "property-12", "property-13", "property-14", "property-15", "property-2", "property-4", "property-5", "property-7", "property-9", "property-11", "property-14", "property-15", "property-2", "property-4", "property-5", "property-9", "property-11", "property-15", "property-1", "property-2", "property-3", "property-4", "property-5", "property-6", "property-7", "property-9", "property-10", "property-11", "property-12", "property-13", "property-14", "property-15", "property-1", "property-2", "property-3", "property-4", "property-5", "property-6", "property-7", "property-8", "property-9", "property-10", "property-11", "property-12", "property-13", "property-14", "property-15", "property-2", "property-3", "property-4", "property-5", "property-6", "property-7", "property-9", "property-10", "property-11", "property-14", "property-15", "property-2", "property-3", "property-4", "property-5", "property-9", "property-10", "property-11"]}
Y = 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Y = np.array(Y)
Si = sobol.analyze(problem, Y, calc_second_order = False, print_to_console=True)

I found that this is due to the validation below can only cover if y is 1d array, but in confidence level calculation the y's shape is like (sample number, 100):
image

One strange thing is that in some row the np.ptp(y, axis=0) equals 0, but the np.var(y, axis=0) is 9.75002034e-32 instead of 0, so the program never get exception. It takes me a lot of time to find this.
So I suggested to validate every row in y, and give 0 value for any row that y.ptp is 0:
image

This works perfectly for my case:
image
Result include second order:
image

If you are ok with this solution, I can submit a PR later.
Please let me know if you have any concern about this.
Thanks

@tupui
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tupui commented May 15, 2024

Thank you for the report.

I am not sure about the check that you propose. This is a machine precision issue and so I would lean on updating the check to the following instead if y.ptp() <= eps and we can get the precision machine for eps from NumPy.

What do you think @ConnectedSystems?

@tupui tupui added the bug label May 15, 2024
@ConnectedSystems
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ConnectedSystems commented May 15, 2024

I agree with you @tupui

As an aside, perhaps I don't follow the exact context (haven't had the time to run a few checks and the MWE) but I thought .ptp() flattened the array and, as it is a one-dimensional array, ptp() would return a scalar value?

https://numpy.org/doc/stable/reference/generated/numpy.ptp.html

Just puzzled as to how this specific case got past the check...

Or is ptp() itself return the value that is close to but not zero?

@LiBingtao
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Hi @tupui @ConnectedSystems

Thanks for follow up the issue.
@ConnectedSystems In my case the y is for example like this: y=[ [1, 1, 1], [1, ,1, 1], [1, 1, 4] ]. So the ptp() flatten the array then return 3 and got past the check.

Then in this line of code np.mean(B * (AB - A), axis=0)/np.var(y, axis=0), the first two row will divided by 0.
But in my MWE the strange thing is np.var(y, axis=0) give me something like this [9.75002034e-32, 9.75002034e-32, 1] instead of [0, 0, 1]. So my MWE not only got past the check, but also not divided by 0 (divide very small value and give me the extreme large in my result).

What I'm proposing is not use the check that flatten the array, we should check y.ptp() on every row, which is y.ptp(axis=0), and return 0 at the row that will divided by 0.

So I think the if y.ptp() <= eps is not good enough for my example case @tupui . Maybe we need to execute this check on every row. Which will be np.divide(temp, y_var, out=np.zeros_like(y_var, dtype=float), where=y_ptp>=eps)

What do you think?

@tupui
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tupui commented May 16, 2024

I would actually prefer if we worked toward using the new API we added to SciPy:

https://github.com/scipy/scipy/blob/main/scipy/stats/_sensitivity_analysis.py

Here we handle this issue by letting NaN propagate and then replace all NaN with 0. Simpler and vectorized operation.

@LiBingtao
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LiBingtao commented May 17, 2024

Hi Tupui,

I agree with you that replace all NaN with 0 is more simpler and clean. first_order[~np.isfinite(first_order)] = 0?
But in my case the np.isfinite(9.75002034e-32) = ture. So finally the unreasonable value can not be filtered out.
The key problem here is that np.var(all_identical_array) = 9.75002034e-32 but not np.var(all_identical_array) = 0
And It seems it's because the underlying algorithm numpy used: numpy/numpy#9631
In the issue above, they suggested either use a different variance calculation algorithm, or we have to use np.ptp() to check the divided by 0 issue.

@tupui
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tupui commented May 20, 2024

Thanks for the links. Out of curiosity, did you check the result that SciPy gives? Looks like we might have to also fix that in SciPy then. We need to take into account machine precision there as we are not computing anything in arbitrary precision.
On which platform are you?

@ConnectedSystems
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ConnectedSystems commented May 20, 2024

Hi again,

When i last looked into this, most, if not all, packages did not handle this issue well.

I personally do not like the propagate and replace approach (meaning propagating the NaNs and replacing those with zeros).

My thinking is that this issue arises when there is a no activity (no influence of X on y) within a given subspace of parameter space. Allowing NaNs to propagate instead of returning zero would corrupt the analyses ("poison" as they say), including for regions where X is influential on y.

Which is why I put in the use of .ptp() - to mark the region of parameter space as inactive (due to zero variance of y), while preserving the case where X does induce variance in y.

Hope this thought process makes sense, and happy to be convinced otherwise!

@LiBingtao
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Hi Tupui

I haven't had time to try scipy yet. My local environment is window 10 x64. My service on cloud is based on Debian 11 docker image.

@LiBingtao
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LiBingtao commented May 23, 2024

Hi @tupui

I've tried the scipy sobol_indices. It's not easy to reproduce the issue use my own data, so I use another synthetic data with blow code:

import numpy as np
from scipy.stats import sobol_indices, uniform
rng = np.random.default_rng()
def test_func(x):
    f_eval = np.ones(x.shape[1])
    f_eval[0] = -139.8
    return f_eval
indices = sobol_indices(
    func=test_func, n=128,
    dists=[
        uniform(loc=-np.pi, scale=2*np.pi),
        uniform(loc=-np.pi, scale=2*np.pi),
        uniform(loc=-np.pi, scale=2*np.pi),
        uniform(loc=-np.pi, scale=2*np.pi),
        uniform(loc=-np.pi, scale=2*np.pi)
    ],
    random_state=rng
)

This way, the np.ptp(indices._f_AB[1]) is 0, and np.var(indices._f_AB[1]) is 4.930380657631324e-32. And the issue in SALib is because this small variance value. But in SciPy, seems the logic is different. When I call indices.bootstrap(), the console give me the warning: _resampling.py:147: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide a_hat = 1/6 * sum(nums) / sum(dens)**(3/2), and there is nan in the confidence level result.

I don't know the computation step here, but seems like the small variance value finally cause devided 0 in the _bca_interval method.

So the issue will not showed in SciPy.

It's just my investigation, hope you can give more insights about this.

Thanks!

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