"Unknown unknowns" is a phrase used to describe risks, issues, or challenges that are not only unknown but also not anticipated or recognized. It refers to the concept of being unaware of the existence of certain potential problems or factors that could impact a situation or decision.
The phrase was popularized by former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld during a news briefing in 2002, where he stated: "There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know."
The concept of "unknown unknowns" serves as a reminder that no matter how thorough our analysis or preparations, there may always be factors beyond our current knowledge that can impact outcomes.
In various fields, such as project management, risk assessment, and strategy development, identifying and addressing "unknown unknowns" is challenging but crucial. It requires fostering a mindset of humility, curiosity, and openness to uncover potential blind spots and anticipate unanticipated risks.
Efforts to mitigate "unknown unknowns" involve techniques such as scenario planning, conducting comprehensive risk assessments, seeking diverse perspectives, and maintaining a learning-oriented culture that encourages questioning assumptions and exploring alternative viewpoints.
Recognizing the existence of "unknown unknowns" can lead to more robust decision-making, improved risk management, and enhanced preparedness for a wider range of potential outcomes. It underscores the importance of ongoing vigilance, adaptability, and continuous learning in navigating complex and uncertain environments.