diagnostic.Rmd

---
title: "Diagnostic"
author: "Andreas Bender"
date: "`r Sys.Date()`"
output: rmarkdown::html_vignette
vignette: >
  %\VignetteIndexEntry{Diagnostic}
  %\VignetteEngine{knitr::rmarkdown}
---


```{r, echo = FALSE}
library(knitr)
opts_chunk$set(
  fig.align  = "center",
  fig.width  = 4,
  fig.height = 4,
  crop       = TRUE)
```


```{r message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}
library(tidyr)
library(purrr)
library(dplyr)
library(coalitions)
library(ggplot2)
theme_set(theme_bw())
```

```{r, warning = FALSE}
# load latest emnid data
temp <- scrape_wahlrecht() %>% slice(1) %>% collapse_parties()
temp %>% unnest("survey")

# draw 10k samples from posterior
set.seed(29072017)
draws <- map(temp$survey, draw_from_posterior, nsim=1e4, correction=0.01) %>%
	flatten_df()
draws_long <- gather(draws, party, percent, cdu:others) %>%
		group_by(party) %>%
		mutate(sim = row_number()) %>% ungroup()
```



```{r, fig.width=6, fig.height=6}
ggplot(draws_long, aes(x=party, y=percent)) +
	geom_boxplot() +
	geom_hline(yintercept = 0.05, lty=2, col=2)

## chains
ggplot(draws_long, aes(x=sim, y=percent)) +
	geom_path() +
	geom_hline(yintercept = 0.05, lty=2, col=2) +
	facet_wrap(~party, nrow=2)

draws_long %>%
	group_by(party) %>%
	summarize(entryprob = sum(percent >= 0.05)/n())
```