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[DOC] forecaster tutorial: multivariate forecasting, probabilistic forecasting #2041

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merged 3 commits into from Mar 23, 2022

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kejsitake
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@kejsitake kejsitake commented Feb 10, 2022

Reference Issues/PRs

Attempt to fix #1985 and #1446

What does this implement/fix? Explain your changes.

This PR adds an explanation of the new predict_quantiles interface to the forecasting tutorial. It also adds a multivariate example as requested in issue #1447

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@fkiraly fkiraly added this to Review in progress in Workstream: forecasting and series transformers via automation Feb 11, 2022
@fkiraly fkiraly moved this from Review in progress to In progress in Workstream: forecasting and series transformers Feb 11, 2022
@TonyBagnall TonyBagnall added the module:forecasting forecasting module: forecasting, incl probabilistic and hierarchical forecasting label Feb 11, 2022
@lmmentel lmmentel added the documentation Documentation & tutorials label Feb 12, 2022
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@kejsitake could you clear the output cells in the notebook before committing changes? It'll make it easier to review the actual changes 🙂

@fkiraly fkiraly changed the title Modifications to the forecaster tutorial [DOC] forecaster tutorial: multivariate forecasting, probabilistic forecasting Feb 16, 2022
@fkiraly fkiraly added this to Should have in Release v0.14.0 Feb 16, 2022
@kejsitake kejsitake marked this pull request as ready for review February 16, 2022 19:06
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Thank you for the suggestion! I have cleared the cells. I see there is some difference in the notebook metadata causing the conflict(i.e. difference in python version). I am not sure if there is a preference in handling that?

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I think you can update to your latest version in order to resolve.

@kejsitake kejsitake force-pushed the tutorial branch 5 times, most recently from c8dcfd5 to b8aedd3 Compare February 19, 2022 19:58
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Thanks for your great work, @kejsitake!

Regarding structure, I think adding the content in sections 1.2.4 and 1.2.5 is the best place, and this is the best sequence (first multivariate, then prediction intervals).

My comments revolve around being more explicit in your text. The picture that I have is being the tour guide, so you should say things like "this is the forecaster", "the input should look like this", etc. I´ve added details in my comments.

Workstream: forecasting and series transformers automation moved this from In progress to Review in progress Feb 22, 2022
@kejsitake kejsitake force-pushed the tutorial branch 4 times, most recently from 389772b to b515d45 Compare February 27, 2022 05:33
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Excellent, really nice work!

(also agree with the change in the ThetaForecaster tag)

@fkiraly fkiraly merged commit 81bfb34 into sktime:main Mar 23, 2022
Workstream: forecasting and series transformers automation moved this from Review in progress to Done Mar 23, 2022
@fkiraly fkiraly moved this from Should have to Done in Release v0.14.0 Mar 23, 2022
srggrs added a commit to Gridsight/sktime that referenced this pull request Mar 24, 2022
* upstream/main:
  [ENH] Test parameter refactor: time series classifiers (sktime#2288)
  [ENH] Mock estimators and mock estimator generators for testing (sktime#2197)
  [ENH] Rename AutoARIMA from StatsForecast to StatsForecastAutoARIMA (sktime#2272)
  [ENH] `FeatureUnion` refactor - moved to `transformations`, tags, dunder method (sktime#2231)
  [DOC] - minor update to tutorials, add predict_var, predict_proba (sktime#2114)
  [DOC] forecaster tutorial: multivariate forecasting, probabilistic forecasting (sktime#2041)
  [BUG] Fix windows bug with index freq in VetorizedDF.__getitem__ (sktime#2279)
  refactor of TimeSeriesForestClassifier create get_test_param method. remove params from config (sktime#2277)
  Update .all-contributorsrc - tomiiwa (sktime#2286)
  [DOC] Updated pre-commit link, clearer language in Coding Style (sktime#2285)
  [DOC] numpydoc compliance fix of simple forecasting extension template (sktime#2284)
  test_param_refactor (sktime#2273)
  [BUG] fix conversion interval->quantiles in `BaseForecaster`, and fix `ARIMA.predict_interval` (sktime#2281)
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[DOC] update forecasting tutorial with new predict intervals/quantiles interface
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