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M&M problem in chapter 2: Bayes' theoreom #44
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The way you have stated those hypotheses, they are both true.
I agree that the way the hypotheses are stated in the book takes some work to untangle, but I think the solution is correct.
…On Thu, Jul 1, 2021, at 3:27 AM, NaraMB wrote:
After thinking through and solving the problem successfully, I looked at solution.
A subtle (and even trivial, may be) definition in hypothesis and data could be
Hypotheses A: one M&M from 94, another from 96
Hypotheses B: one from 96, another from 94
Given: one is yellow and one is green
Here, formulation of hypothesis is based on the information in the problem. (one from each bag; it could be of any color)
Data or Given is yellow from one and green from another, which changes the likelihood based on the color.
If we state hypothesis as "green from 1994 and yellow from 1996", it seems like hypothesis itself is defined based on the Data :). It took me a while to figure it out.
Is my understanding correct here?
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I think there might be an easier-to-understand way for the hypotheses and data Data: Got Y (yellow) and G (green), and each from one bag respectively. Hypotheses: Y is from b94 Since the data already assumed Here is the Bayes' where |
After thinking through and solving the problem successfully, I looked at solution.
A subtle (and even trivial, may be) change in defining hypothesis and data could be
Hypotheses A: one M&M from 94, another from 96
Hypotheses B: one from 96, another from 94
Given: one is yellow and one is green
Here, formulation of hypothesis is based on the information in the problem. (one from each bag; it could be of any color)
Data or Given is yellow from one and green from another, which changes the likelihood based on the color.
If we state hypothesis as "green from 1994 and yellow from 1996", it seems like hypothesis itself is defined based on the Data :). It took me a while to figure it out.
Is my understanding correct here?
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