-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
alamance_us.txt
44 lines (44 loc) · 1.6 KB
/
alamance_us.txt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country alamance_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.136 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.109 (1/day)
Population size (N) 15276
Initial number of cases (I0) 18
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.246
Critical number of susceptible 15277
Final state
Final number of cases 5691
Final number of susceptibles 9585
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 5062 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.027076 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 25.6 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 148
Acceleration phase 72 (days)
Deceleration phase 80 (days)
Total duration 152 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 06-Jun-2020
Turning point 17-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 05-Nov-2020
Start of ending phase 06-Apr-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 97.9398
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 18896.5
p-value 4.1894e-259
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1432.74
Exit condition (1=OK) 0