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albany_us.txt
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albany_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country albany_us
Day 176
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.564 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.563 (1/day)
Population size (N) 81108
Initial number of cases (I0) 48
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.002
Critical number of susceptible 81108
Final state
Final number of cases 2961
Final number of susceptibles 78146
Daily forecast for 14-Sep-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 353 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00123119 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 563 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 3
Acceleration phase 5 (days)
Deceleration phase 103 (days)
Total duration 107 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 20-Mar-2020
Turning point 25-Mar-2020
Start of steady growth 05-Jul-2020
Start of ending phase 21-Oct-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 176
Degrees of freedom 172
Root Mean Squared Error 96.518
R-Squared 0.987
Adjusted R-Squared 0.986
F-statistics vs. zero model 4103
p-value 9.92289e-160
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1265.82
Exit condition (1=OK) 0