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alexandria_us.txt
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alexandria_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country alexandria_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.189 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.179 (1/day)
Population size (N) 31309
Initial number of cases (I0) 91
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.055
Critical number of susceptible 31310
Final state
Final number of cases 4438
Final number of susceptibles 26871
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3238 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0103256 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 67.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 68
Acceleration phase 65 (days)
Deceleration phase 119 (days)
Total duration 184 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 25-Mar-2020
Turning point 29-May-2020
Start of steady growth 25-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 29-Mar-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 174.831
R-Squared 0.982
Adjusted R-Squared 0.981
F-statistics vs. zero model 3590.51
p-value 2.57103e-183
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2563.53
Exit condition (1=OK) 0