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allen_us.txt
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allen_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country allen_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.149 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.14 (1/day)
Population size (N) 199260
Initial number of cases (I0) 100
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.064
Critical number of susceptible 199260
Final state
Final number of cases 25105
Final number of susceptibles 174154
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 22872 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00909935 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 76.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 272
Acceleration phase 176 (days)
Deceleration phase 203 (days)
Total duration 379 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 26-Jun-2020
Turning point 19-Dec-2020
Start of steady growth 10-Jul-2021
Start of ending phase 23-Jul-2022
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 175.112
R-Squared 0.995
Adjusted R-Squared 0.995
F-statistics vs. zero model 13015
p-value 7.42056e-242
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2561.67
Exit condition (1=OK) 0