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arizona.txt
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arizona.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country arizona
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.093 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.03 (1/day)
Population size (N) 241818
Initial number of cases (I0) 185
Basic reproduction number (R0) 3.044
Critical number of susceptible 241819
Final state
Final number of cases 228176
Final number of susceptibles 13642
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 194330 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0622665 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 11.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 107
Acceleration phase 33 (days)
Deceleration phase 40 (days)
Total duration 73 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 04-Jun-2020
Turning point 07-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 16-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 27-Oct-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 4419.13
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 31301
p-value 1.36929e-283
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 64797.2
Exit condition (1=OK) 1