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arlington_us.txt
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arlington_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country arlington_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.329 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.322 (1/day)
Population size (N) 73776
Initial number of cases (I0) 66
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.018
Critical number of susceptible 73777
Final state
Final number of cases 4709
Final number of susceptibles 69067
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 2732 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00620083 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 111.8 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 52
Acceleration phase 52 (days)
Deceleration phase 134 (days)
Total duration 186 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 22-Mar-2020
Turning point 13-May-2020
Start of steady growth 24-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 29-Mar-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 171.601
R-Squared 0.983
Adjusted R-Squared 0.982
F-statistics vs. zero model 3946.95
p-value 1.18625e-187
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2516.16
Exit condition (1=OK) 0