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atlantic_us.txt
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atlantic_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country atlantic_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.44 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.433 (1/day)
Population size (N) 94296
Initial number of cases (I0) 56
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.015
Critical number of susceptible 94296
Final state
Final number of cases 4855
Final number of susceptibles 89440
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 2769 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00655573 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 105.7 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 47
Acceleration phase 47 (days)
Deceleration phase 123 (days)
Total duration 170 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 22-Mar-2020
Turning point 08-May-2020
Start of steady growth 09-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 26-Feb-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 201.888
R-Squared 0.98
Adjusted R-Squared 0.98
F-statistics vs. zero model 3255.26
p-value 7.79697e-179
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2960.26
Exit condition (1=OK) 0