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baltimore_us.txt
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baltimore_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country baltimore_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 2.061 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 2.052 (1/day)
Population size (N) 2.71189e+06
Initial number of cases (I0) 28
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.004
Critical number of susceptible 2.71189e+06
Final state
Final number of cases 28369
Final number of susceptibles 2.68352e+06
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total 20423
Increase 78
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 22855 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00872213 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 79.5 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 127
Acceleration phase 105 (days)
Deceleration phase 156 (days)
Total duration 260 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 13-Apr-2020
Turning point 27-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 30-Dec-2020
Start of ending phase 16-Sep-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 413.735
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 16553.8
p-value 6.05742e-254
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 6066.54
Exit condition (1=OK) 0