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bartow_us.txt
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bartow_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country bartow_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.057 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.027 (1/day)
Population size (N) 5149
Initial number of cases (I0) 24
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.085
Critical number of susceptible 5150
Final state
Final number of cases 4234
Final number of susceptibles 915
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3535 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0297379 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 23.3 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 149
Acceleration phase 68 (days)
Deceleration phase 83 (days)
Total duration 151 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 10-Jun-2020
Turning point 18-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 09-Nov-2020
Start of ending phase 09-Apr-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 125.043
R-Squared 0.988
Adjusted R-Squared 0.987
F-statistics vs. zero model 6178.54
p-value 2.85216e-208
Method
Total cases weight 0
Infection rate weight 1
Objective function value 157.052
Exit condition (1=OK) 1