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bayamon_us.txt
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bayamon_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country bayamon_us
Day 101
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.066 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.058 (1/day)
Population size (N) 23316
Initial number of cases (I0) 619
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.116
Critical number of susceptible 23316
Final state
Final number of cases 8007
Final number of susceptibles 15308
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 5287 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00847213 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 81.8 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 38
Acceleration phase 51 (days)
Deceleration phase 131 (days)
Total duration 182 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 18-Jul-2020
Start of acceleration 05-Jul-2020
Turning point 25-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 03-Jan-2021
Start of ending phase 05-Jul-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 101
Degrees of freedom 97
Root Mean Squared Error 59.5998
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 14387
p-value 2.55534e-128
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 586.99
Exit condition (1=OK) 0