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berkeley_us.txt
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berkeley_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country berkeley_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.105 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.041 (1/day)
Population size (N) 6350
Initial number of cases (I0) 1
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.589
Critical number of susceptible 6350
Final state
Final number of cases 5738
Final number of susceptibles 611
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 4830 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0645869 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 10.7 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 118
Acceleration phase 32 (days)
Deceleration phase 39 (days)
Total duration 71 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 16-Jun-2020
Turning point 18-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 26-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 04-Nov-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 151.053
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 16887.3
p-value 7.16005e-255
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2214.85
Exit condition (1=OK) 1