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berks_us.txt
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berks_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country berks_us
Day 176
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.314 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.312 (1/day)
Population size (N) 89518
Initial number of cases (I0) 189
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.004
Critical number of susceptible 89519
Final state
Final number of cases 6214
Final number of susceptibles 83304
Daily forecast for 14-Sep-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 1039 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00183304 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 378.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 2
Acceleration phase 6 (days)
Deceleration phase 99 (days)
Total duration 105 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 19-Mar-2020
Turning point 24-Mar-2020
Start of steady growth 01-Jul-2020
Start of ending phase 14-Oct-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 176
Degrees of freedom 172
Root Mean Squared Error 344.567
R-Squared 0.964
Adjusted R-Squared 0.963
F-statistics vs. zero model 1392.85
p-value 2.25711e-120
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 4518.96
Exit condition (1=OK) 0