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burleigh_us.txt
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burleigh_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country burleigh_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.152 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.125 (1/day)
Population size (N) 62128
Initial number of cases (I0) 5
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.213
Critical number of susceptible 62129
Final state
Final number of cases 20473
Final number of susceptibles 41654
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 18556 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0266025 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 26.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 247
Acceleration phase 77 (days)
Deceleration phase 82 (days)
Total duration 159 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 08-Sep-2020
Turning point 24-Nov-2020
Start of steady growth 14-Feb-2021
Start of ending phase 22-Jul-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 70.5835
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 41442.4
p-value 1.14796e-296
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1034.96
Exit condition (1=OK) 0