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cabarrus_us.txt
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cabarrus_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country cabarrus_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.061 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.032 (1/day)
Population size (N) 7133
Initial number of cases (I0) 43
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.89
Critical number of susceptible 7133
Final state
Final number of cases 5494
Final number of susceptibles 1638
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 4588 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0288827 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 24 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 138
Acceleration phase 69 (days)
Deceleration phase 84 (days)
Total duration 154 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 30-May-2020
Turning point 07-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 30-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 02-Apr-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 86.0802
R-Squared 0.997
Adjusted R-Squared 0.997
F-statistics vs. zero model 23638.8
p-value 1.78843e-269
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1259.25
Exit condition (1=OK) 1