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calumet_us.txt
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calumet_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country calumet_us
Day 210
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.109 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.04 (1/day)
Population size (N) 3879
Initial number of cases (I0) 0
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.736
Critical number of susceptible 3879
Final state
Final number of cases 3565
Final number of susceptibles 313
Daily forecast for 18-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3011 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0694233 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 10 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 195
Acceleration phase 30 (days)
Deceleration phase 36 (days)
Total duration 66 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 03-Sep-2020
Turning point 03-Oct-2020
Start of steady growth 08-Nov-2020
Start of ending phase 12-Jan-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 210
Degrees of freedom 206
Root Mean Squared Error 206.561
R-Squared 0.902
Adjusted R-Squared 0.9
F-statistics vs. zero model 601.325
p-value 1.37064e-101
Method
Total cases weight 0
Infection rate weight 1
Objective function value 145.549
Exit condition (1=OK) 1