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charles_us.txt
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charles_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country charles_us
Day 217
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.124 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.121 (1/day)
Population size (N) 120277
Initial number of cases (I0) 99
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.02
Critical number of susceptible 120278
Final state
Final number of cases 7753
Final number of susceptibles 112523
Daily forecast for 25-Oct-2020
Total 3183
Increase 15
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 4811 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00252627 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 274.4 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 159
Acceleration phase 156 (days)
Deceleration phase 364 (days)
Total duration 520 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 25-Mar-2020
Turning point 28-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 27-Aug-2021
Start of ending phase 29-Jan-2023
Statistics
Number of observations 217
Degrees of freedom 213
Root Mean Squared Error 65.6338
R-Squared 0.995
Adjusted R-Squared 0.995
F-statistics vs. zero model 13599.6
p-value 5.81141e-243
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 957.894
Exit condition (1=OK) 0