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charlotte_us.txt
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charlotte_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country charlotte_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.081 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.032 (1/day)
Population size (N) 3702
Initial number of cases (I0) 3
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.546
Critical number of susceptible 3702
Final state
Final number of cases 3328
Final number of susceptibles 374
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 2798 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0490631 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 14.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 126
Acceleration phase 42 (days)
Deceleration phase 51 (days)
Total duration 93 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 14-Jun-2020
Turning point 26-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 15-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 17-Dec-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 179.831
R-Squared 0.978
Adjusted R-Squared 0.978
F-statistics vs. zero model 3350.24
p-value 3.78366e-180
Method
Total cases weight 0
Infection rate weight 1
Objective function value 160.985
Exit condition (1=OK) 1