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chesapeake_us.txt
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chesapeake_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country chesapeake_us
Day 217
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.533 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.494 (1/day)
Population size (N) 33800
Initial number of cases (I0) 2
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.08
Critical number of susceptible 33801
Final state
Final number of cases 4908
Final number of susceptibles 28892
Daily forecast for 25-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 4666 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0395379 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 17.5 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 130
Acceleration phase 50 (days)
Deceleration phase 52 (days)
Total duration 102 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 10-Jun-2020
Turning point 30-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 20-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 31-Dec-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 217
Degrees of freedom 213
Root Mean Squared Error 119.584
R-Squared 0.995
Adjusted R-Squared 0.995
F-statistics vs. zero model 15547.7
p-value 4.00306e-249
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1745.27
Exit condition (1=OK) 0