-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
citrus_us.txt
44 lines (44 loc) · 1.6 KB
/
citrus_us.txt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country citrus_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.087 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.039 (1/day)
Population size (N) 3879
Initial number of cases (I0) 2
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.231
Critical number of susceptible 3879
Final state
Final number of cases 3297
Final number of susceptibles 581
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 2759 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0480175 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 14.4 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 141
Acceleration phase 43 (days)
Deceleration phase 52 (days)
Total duration 95 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 28-Jun-2020
Turning point 10-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 01-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 04-Jan-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 55.6632
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 29830.3
p-value 2.38781e-281
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 816.186
Exit condition (1=OK) 0