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cobb_us.txt
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cobb_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country cobb_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.241 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.208 (1/day)
Population size (N) 87631
Initial number of cases (I0) 38
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.159
Critical number of susceptible 87631
Final state
Final number of cases 23120
Final number of susceptibles 64510
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 21171 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0331519 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 20.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 131
Acceleration phase 59 (days)
Deceleration phase 63 (days)
Total duration 123 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 02-Jun-2020
Turning point 31-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 02-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 02-Feb-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 566.602
R-Squared 0.994
Adjusted R-Squared 0.994
F-statistics vs. zero model 13508.7
p-value 1.68762e-244
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 8308.01
Exit condition (1=OK) 0