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cole_us.txt
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cole_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country cole_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.096 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.064 (1/day)
Population size (N) 11608
Initial number of cases (I0) 1
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.49
Critical number of susceptible 11608
Final state
Final number of cases 6695
Final number of susceptibles 4912
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 5749 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0314893 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 22 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 225
Acceleration phase 66 (days)
Deceleration phase 74 (days)
Total duration 140 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 28-Aug-2020
Turning point 02-Nov-2020
Start of steady growth 15-Jan-2021
Start of ending phase 04-Jun-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 49.3389
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 17110.8
p-value 1.75244e-255
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 723.45
Exit condition (1=OK) 0