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colorado.txt
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colorado.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country colorado
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.066 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.062 (1/day)
Population size (N) 9.32119e+06
Initial number of cases (I0) 3711
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.064
Critical number of susceptible 9.32119e+06
Final state
Final number of cases 1.16258e+06
Final number of susceptibles 8.15861e+06
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 1.07079e+06 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00402135 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 172.4 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 679
Acceleration phase 417 (days)
Deceleration phase 469 (days)
Total duration 886 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 09-Dec-2020
Turning point 30-Jan-2022
Start of steady growth 14-May-2023
Start of ending phase 15-Oct-2025
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 2415.89
R-Squared 0.99
Adjusted R-Squared 0.99
F-statistics vs. zero model 7201.65
p-value 2.38709e-215
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 35423.8
Exit condition (1=OK) 0