-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
coweta_us.txt
44 lines (44 loc) · 1.6 KB
/
coweta_us.txt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country coweta_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.052 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.013 (1/day)
Population size (N) 3136
Initial number of cases (I0) 8
Basic reproduction number (R0) 3.968
Critical number of susceptible 3136
Final state
Final number of cases 3072
Final number of susceptibles 63
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 2685 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.039161 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 17.7 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 141
Acceleration phase 52 (days)
Deceleration phase 61 (days)
Total duration 113 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 19-Jun-2020
Turning point 10-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 10-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 01-Feb-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 181.918
R-Squared 0.967
Adjusted R-Squared 0.966
F-statistics vs. zero model 2191.74
p-value 7.45505e-161
Method
Total cases weight 0
Infection rate weight 1
Objective function value 146.973
Exit condition (1=OK) 1