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dauphin_us.txt
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dauphin_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country dauphin_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.289 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.278 (1/day)
Population size (N) 64533
Initial number of cases (I0) 44
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.037
Critical number of susceptible 64533
Final state
Final number of cases 5537
Final number of susceptibles 58996
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 4492 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0104133 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 66.6 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 112
Acceleration phase 94 (days)
Deceleration phase 138 (days)
Total duration 232 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 09-Apr-2020
Turning point 12-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 27-Nov-2020
Start of ending phase 17-Jul-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 84.7317
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 18228.6
p-value 1.94126e-257
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1239.52
Exit condition (1=OK) 0